Among likely voters, it's Biden 49%, Trump 45%

Overall, it's Trump 46% and Biden 44% but........

Among registered voters, it's Biden 46%, Trump 45%. Among likely voters, it's Biden 49%, Trump 45%.

Among registered voters in the five-way race (RFKjr, Jill Stein, Cornel West), it's 42-42%, Biden-Trump

Trump's unfavorable rating is much higher than Biden's, Trump's 58% to Biden's 51%.
Biden's favorable rating is much higher than Trump, Biden's 41% to Trump's 33%,

It ain't over 'till it's over.

And when is Jill Stein going to get the message?

Cornel who? I know who he is, but most folks probably not.

As to who RFKjr is going to hurt the most, depends on who you ask.
Given his conspiracy theories, seems to me he'd hurt Trump moderates, but
who knows?



https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/6-m...tial-race-trump-biden-poll/story?id=109909175

News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® April 25-30, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,260 adults. Partisan divisions are 31% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 28% independents.

 

None of this matters. What matters is the battleground states. In those, Trump is in the lead. At this point, I think it will take a miracle for Biden to win.

 

Have faith and get as many like minded Americans to the polls, it's in Roevember. The women will AGAIN decide this election AND polling is a cycle business, media too. Greed is good to businesses....
National polling averages have Joe 1% behind with 5+ months to go.

In my opinion, pay attention to the new RNC and Trump's rhetoric, if he increases the whining about losing hence violence, his internal polls tell the real story.

 

I don't see any way in which Trump wins. He has gained NO new voters. Same people who voted for him last time MINUS whatever number that will refuse to vote for a convicted criminal and somebody who incited an insurrection, is what he's got. They might not vote for Biden, and if somebody calls them for a poll they might answer halfheartedly that they'll vote for Trump. But it's unlikely they'll bother to go out to the polling places on election day to actually cast their vote for him.

I can only speak for myself and the democrats I interact with in my personal life. But we are all much more enthusiastic about Biden this time around, then we were in 2020. I think he has done a better job than I expected.

 

Even in 2020, Biden won several battleground states by only 10s of thousands of votes. Back then, Dems were REALLY excited to vote against Trump. Even though Biden wasn't exciting back then, he is much less so now. If only 13,000 Biden voters stay home in Georgia, and that's only 0.5% of votes he got in 2020, he will lose that state.
My feeling is that it was way too close for comfort in 2020. That's why I am pessimistic for November. Also, never underestimate voters' tendency to view the past with rose-colored glasses. Some of less engaged Biden voters will forget about 1/6, but they'll say to themselves: It wasn't so bad under Trump. That's all Trump needs to win.

 

Put yourself in a woman's shoes in any state that's curbing their rights, in addition, you are on campus pretty sure, if memory serves, most college students will never vote for a few years unless then are very highly motivated or use early voting. Lots of women now on campuses too, more than men, no woman is going to stand for losing rights their mother's had. That slippery slope is seriously steep and women are used to being underestimated. Most men never se it coming !

What I would really be concerned about is what the RNC and far RW "election" advocates are doing and training for leading up to and on election day. They plan on challenging voters (as private citizens) and really gumming up the in person votes et al in targeted states and districts. They are planning to interrupt and stall the results process with the effect of throwing this cycle either to the House or SCOTUS ultimately. That's the real soft coup that can actually work, some believe it's worked before. Vote early and make sure you are registered because they are too many people out there that are dead set on not allowing certain people not to have their vote count.

 

With abortion it matters far far more to single women than it does to married women. And there are exceptions even among single women. The most ardent abortion foes I know are all female including my wife.

 

You getting desperate.


This probably won't help:

 

Agreed it’s only the swing states that matter. Reds gonna vote red, blues gonna vote blue. For the most part presidential elections are decided by about seven states.

 

Wow, thank you for this slap of reality. Truly.

Sad that I have to learn this from a German in an international forum

 

My poll’s bigger than your poll.

Nolte: Donald Trump Jumps to Ten-Point Lead over Joe Biden

https://www.breitbart.com/2024-elec...trump-jumps-to-ten-point-lead-over-joe-biden/

 

Mind you, a German who lives in the US since 21 years. Can't vote yet, but I hope this will change next year, once Germany relaxes their dual citizenship rules. My vote won't make any difference though, considering the state I live in.

 

Sure you run fast with that, you never see it coming, red wave in Roevember. Sleep well, I do. Not sure if sleeping in a different time zone affects some, hope not

 

Damn! Still get those who can out!

 

I can only go with what the numbers show you can ignore the numbers if you want.

 

Yep, the numbers have been wrong since Trump gained office. Tis' factual reality.

 

And they have always favored dems and been wrong in favor of Democrats.

 

Really bad foreign styled gas lighting^. Facts are unfriendly no?

 

Yes mostly to Democrats. You know like hillary will win in a landslide.

 

Actually, of those 7, the election is won usually in two, but no one knows in advance which two it will be.

 

The polls didn't show her winning in a landslide, but about 3 million votes, which is what she did. That the EC didn't jive is not something polls can predict.

 

Now, after the jig's up, this post is a great example of flailing around. Russians should fear Roevember.

 

That's encouraging, but the only poll that matters is the election itself.

 

Good point.

 

Ditto that.