There's an interesting map here, take a look https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-a...en-Shot-2017-01-03-at-11.54.07-AM-1.png&w=480 Those colors don't represent predictions, they represent current control of senate seats up in 2018. There are only 8 GOP seats up - and they all seem pretty safe. And there are plenty of Democratic seats up which are risky. Seats in places like WV, which has shifted from a blur state a few decades ago to the most red state. Trump's approval numbers are high out west in places like MT and ND. And Trunp did very, very well in IN and OH. It's almost a given that the GOP will gain seats.
Trump reviling the GOP congress over their legislative failures amidst his own dismal approval numbers will have consequences. Ironically, if they had managed to ram through their foul health care reform, they would not suddenly be "sick of winning!," but the electoral consequences would have been worse. The same situation may pertain regarding tax reform if they try to make the nation into Brownbackistan: http://www.npr.org/2017/09/30/55450...t-experiment?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news As Charlie Cook noted, regarding Trump’s tweet tantrumps induced by legislative failures, the wedge that he has driven between the White House and Republicans on Capitol Hill will cause him no end of grief in next year’s midterm elections. Imagine going to voters with this message: “It’s important for you to vote and support the people that I spent most of last year trashing.”
Thanks for this excellent bellwether! It is well worth comparing the OP's graphic to the OUTCOME of 2012 which is the last time these same seats were contested. 2018 Senate Races 2012 Senate Results The GOP did manage to flip one Dem seat while the Dems flipped two GOP seats for a NET GAIN of one Senate seat for the Dems. Yes, 2012 was a presidential election year with a higher turnout than is expected in 2018 but the TREND is leaning towards the Dems in those 29 bellwether local elections. Furthermore @Statistikhengst has been providing background statistics on the numbers of people putting themselves forward for both House and Senate races and it looks like there is more than usual interest in 2018. More candidates means more news coverage which means more interest and more motivation. If the Dems are motivated then the GOP would be counting their chickens before they are hatched if they expect to pick up Senate seats in 2018 IMO.
There is the added factor (that contributes to more than entertainment value) of Bannon's bumptious boys vs the establishmentistas. After whackjob Moore's triumph in Alabama, expect expensive, divisive GOP primaries elsewhere as they savage one another with gusto.
Good point! It is worth noting that if the BLOTUS is still around he will be on the campaign trail reminding the entire Dem electorate why they need to get out and vote in 2018.
The preliminary bouts on the card in a number of venues will be "If only his coattails were half as long as his necktie/loincloth" Trump vs "Below the Beltway" Bannon. Democrats will be cheering both as mayhem ensues.
Excellent news for the Dems! With the GOP eating their own young in public the Dems can present a united front and remind the voters that these are the same people who want to take away their ObamaCare. Nothing quite like watching your political opponents digging their own hole ever deeper.
