2022 mid-term comparison to 2020 and 2018

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Nov 9, 2022.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Once the final canvasses are in (that would be some time in December, I assume), then I will publish all 435 House Races and the 35 Senate races in excel table form in 2 documents, one with 2022 over 2020 and the other with 2022 over 2018.

    I find that there is always good justification to do both, for the comparison 2022 over 2020 is a comparison to the cycle before, but that cycle was a presidential cycle, compared to 2022 over 2018, which would be a pure mid-term to mid-term comparison.

    I've not written anything here about the midterms only because I am swamped with work, but I have been watching pretty much everything closely.

    With redistricting, there are almost invariably some surprises.

    One thing is for sure: there was no red wave, maybe not even a red trickle.

    We saw (and I think this is very good) 435 very individual races. The Republicans, imo, are on track to take the HOR once all is said and done and some of their pickup races posted impressive margins. That being said, the Ds also picked up (to date) at least 2 CDs: OH-01 and IL-17 (or is it 18?). Also, at this moment, Lauren Boebert (R-CO-03) is losing her race to Adam Frisch.

    If the Republicans were really hoping to change California's political dynamic, then their hopes were in vain. They may, at best, pick up 2 seats that they lost in 2018. However, in NY, the atmosphere looks better for the GOP.

    Another observation: some polling was on target, some other polling was wildly off. In the fullness of time I will also compare the results to the major polling aggregates.

    Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has been re-elected. He will be the oldest senator ever to be re-elected and for this, he deserves congratulations from all of us.

    The first Gen-Xer ever was elected to a seat in Florida. That's pretty cool.

    Florida has moved solidly red, no doubt about it.

    But Arizona is demonstrably moving more blue. Right at this moment, around 6 am on the East Coast of the USA, Mark Kelly is demonstrably ahead of where Joe Biden was at exactly the same hour 2 years ago. What will happen in the Senate is anyone's guess right now. With the Ds having picked up Pennsylvania but the Rs most definitely poised to pick up Nevada, that leaves us with a zero-sum game, with only Wisconsin and Georgia left, for I am quite sure that Arizona will be called for Mark Kelly sooner than later. I would not rule out a D win in WI just yet, based on where the votes are. If the Ds win WI this week, then that's the game, the Senate will remain in Democratic hands. But if Ron Johnson eeks it out, then all eyes are then on Georgia and a likely runoff election in December.

    Winning the Gubernatorial in NY by only about +6-7 points is a disaster for Democrats and I hope it will be a wake-up call for them. Also, just barely holding onto a rock-solid D-district in Rhode Island is not a good sign.

    The wins in NH and MI prove that perseverance pays off.

    Given that historical precedent is that the ruling party gets a shellacking at the mid-term polls but that has not happened this year, my takeaway from this is that our nation is more divided than ever and the truly small sliver of undecided (independent) voters gets smaller and smaller. We have become too tribal, I think.

    One last thing I learned is that incumbency can pay off: there was a huge number of incumbent reps of both teams who sailed to re-election, some of them in races that were classified as competitive (Slotkin in MI, Harder in CA, for example).

    For the record, I will accept the final results and congratulate the party in power in each house (or both houses) of the US-Congress.

    So, I will start posting stuff here in about 3 weeks.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2022
  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    On the way to the final data I would like to point out some individual races that have caught my attention.

    Politico, a decent politics website, has called the House races in all but 44 districts, which means that 2 days after the mid-term elections, 10% of House districts are still out. Please do not be deceived by this, a number of those districts are likely more decided than we think (3 in California not yet called are D vs D, so regardless when they will be called, it is going to be a D).

    2022 HOR 001.png

    First up, ME-02, the district that Donald Trump flipped to the Republicans on the presidential level 2 times in a row (Maine casts it's electoral votes by CD, with the electors representing the Senators voting for the winner of the statewide popular vote). It is an extremely rural, spread-out district:

    2022 HOR 002.png

    In terms of land mass, ME-02 is larger than NH and VT put together.

    With 96% of the vote in, Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is leading Republican challenger Bruce Poliquin by +3.8% in a state where there is ranked choice voting for those who don't get above 50%.

    This is a re-run of the race from 2018, where it was also Golden vs. Poliquin, but at this point in time, Golden was just barely ahead.

    Were there a massive red wave, this would have surely been the very first district in the Union to have fallen to the GOP, especially considering that Poliquin has extremely high name recognition. However, when we see that the Ds won the gubernatorial over a former R-Gov by a massive margin, this is likely to become a Golden +7 or +8 once the first elimination round is over.

    So, although this race is not yet called, it is practically guaranteed to be a D-hold when all is said and done.
     
  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Next up, NY-18.

    NY was supposed to be low-hanging fruit for the GOP, but it appears that they will, at max, pick up two CDs in the Empire state. They definitely picked up NY-03

    Right now in NY-18, the Democrat Ryan, according to FOX and CNN, has just barely retained his seat despite redistricting that made this CD considerably more red:

    2022 HOR 003.png

    This was supposed to be among the lowest of low-hanging fruit. Politico still has the race as undecided.
     
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Conversely, while Politico has already called CT-05 for Democratic incumbent Jahana Hayes,

    2022 HOR 004.png

    CNN still has the race as undecided:

    2022 HOR 005.png

    This race was also among the lowest of hanging fruit for the GOP, but it looks as if CT will continue to have a 100% D-delegation to congress in 2023.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2022
  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Next up, MD-06. Every aggregator has not yet called this race, where the Republican is slightly ahead, but only 70% of the vote is in:

    2022 HOR 006.png

    This is a formerly GOP CD that Democrat David Throne picked up for Team D in 2018 and won in both '18 and '20 by +12%. Were a true Republican wave underway, this CD would have already been called on election night, but there is still the chance that it will.
     
  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Next up, all of Texas:

    2022 HOR 007.png

    Easy logic. Due to redistricting, Texas grew from 36 to 38 CDs, but only picked up one, namely TX-15. The delegation, it appears, will be R-25, D-13 for the next congressional session. Currently, it is R-23 / D-13. So, the D-contingent has not numerically changed, but percentually, the Rs have more power in this delegation.

    Please notice how CD-15 looks. Now, if that is not gerrymandering, then nothing on earth is. It looks just as terrible as IL-13, which the Ds picked-up.
     
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Next up, CO-03 (Lauren Boebert):

    2022 HOR 008.png

    CNN says that 95% of the vote is in, Politico clams that it 99%. It's been a long time since we have seen a photo-finish like this. Right now, Democratic challenger Adam Frisch is only +64 votes ahead of incumbent Lauren Boebert. The one thing that we can 100% say about this district is that when the last votes (military ballots, provisionals) are sorted out, there is going to be a mandatory recount.

    This is a race that 4 months ago no one saw the Rs as possibly losing. However, I do not chalk these results up to the failure of the Republicans to have an actual wave. Here, this race is truly very individual. Lauren Boebert has accumulated a huge amount of baggage due to her disgusting, trollish, threatening behavior that has turned off even the hardest of hard-core true Conservatives. Conversely, Adam Frisch, a successful entenpreneur, has presented himself as a sane human being and lo and behold, we can see how suddenly hard-core partisans can stop being so partisan so partisan and for the good of the Republic, at least consider the other side. To get as far as he has gotten, I reckon that Frisch has garnered at least 20% of the GOP vote in this district.

    Even if I were a Republican (I am not and have never claimed to be), seeing all the terrible things that Boebert has said as a congresswoman, I would be thrilled to see her lose, because I would not want her or Marjorie Taylor Greene to be the face of my party.

    My betting odds are still on Boebert pulling this one out by the hair of her chinny chin-chin, but this was supposed to be an R-landslide. Take a look at so many Representatives that went from a lean first win to massive landslide second, third and fourth wins. You can find them in abundance on both sides of the aisle. But Lauren Boebert is in this predicament only because of one person: Lauren Boebert. And it can very well be that her behaviour actually helps Colorado move even more to the Left than it already has.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2022
  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Next up, a true swing district, NM-02:

    2022 HOR 009.png

    In terms of landmass, this CD is almost as large as ME, NH and VT combined, just to get some perspective, here.

    In 2018, Torres just barely picked up this CD for the Ds. In 2020, Herrell just barely picked up this CD for the Rs. And right now, it looks as if Vasquez is on track to pick up this CD once again for the Ds, setting back the R +gains by 1 seat. Simple math. 99% of the vote is in and NM does a good job of getting it's votes counted quickly and efficiently.

    I suspect that this will be another DEM pick-up, when all is said and done.
     
  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Next up, all of Nevada. Ahhhh, Nevada, slow-ticker, as usual. 3 out of 4 seats, all blue seat, as still uncalled:

    2022 HOR 010.png

    With 86% of the vote in in Las Vegas, 88% of the vote in in NV-03 and 89% in in NV-04, most likely all three of these seats will remain D-holds.

    Had a true Republican wave been underway, I am quite sure that both NV-03 and NV-04 would have fallen right away on election night.
     
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Next up, MT-01. Since Montana gained a CD after the 2020 census and for the first time in its history, it now has 2 CDs, there is no way to compare this to anything in the past:

    2022 HOR 011.png

    What is now MT-01 has the Republican, Zinke, ahead by +3.1 and 99% of the vote is in, however, there are apparently more than 20,000 votes outstanding, most of them from Missoula and Butte, both relative D strongholds within the state but not nearly as strong as Billings, so I suspect that out of an abundance of caution, people are waiting on this race. I do expect it to be called for Zinke in spite of his scandalous past in Trump's cabinet.

    However, had there been a true Republican wave, then one would expect, of all places in a really reliable Republican state, that this would be an easy +15 win, but it is not. And there is still the chance that Tranel can make history, here. Wait and see.
     
  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Next up: Washington State. There, 2 CDs are still undecided and in both, the Ds are comfortably ahead:

    2022 HOR 012.png

    WA-03 was an open seat. Guesenkamp Perez is ahead by +4.6

    2022 HOR 013.png

    WA-08 is an incumbent race, with Schrier ahead by +5.3. In 2018, she won by +5. In 2020, she won by +3.6. I am pretty sure she will win by at least +5 when all is said and done.

    So, though these races are not yet called, they will be called for the Ds and the Washington congressional delegation will numerically be as it was last time.

    BTW, here is what polling was saying about Parry Murray and her senatorial chances:

    2022 HOR 014.png

    Two extreme Right wing pollsters had her up by only +2 and +1 respectively and both had her under the 50% mark. Now here is what reality actually looks like:

    2022 HOR 015.png

    Right now, she is up by +13.6 and that will likely grow to +14 when all is said and done. So, those right wing pollsters were off by at least +12 and that is cold, hard, fact.

    Therefore, rumors that Washington State was suddenly going to be competitive were just that: rumors.
     
  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Next up: Oregon. Oregon, due to redistricting, went from 5 CDs to 6 CDs and so we will have a hard time making comparisons. One thing is for sure: CD-02 has been super Republican for a long time and it was this time around.

    Here is what we have in two thus far uncalled districts:

    2022 HOR 016.png
    In OR-05, an open seat with redrawn boundaries, the Republican is ahead by +2.7, with 79% of the vote in. I can say absolutely nothing about this CD yet. Wait and see.

    2022 HOR 017.png

    In the newly drawn OR-06, also an open race, the Democrat is up by +1.5, with 71% of the vote in. Again, I can say absolutely nothing about this race yet.

    It is entirely possible that the GOP picks up both of these races, or the Ds could win both which would mean a net pick-up of +1 due to the new district having been drawn.

    I recommend: drink coffee and wait.
     
  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Next stop: Alaska

    2022 HOR 018.png

    Here we are quite literally seeing a re-run of the special election from about 2 months ago, where Mary Peltola made history by becoming the first Democratic Representative from Alaska. We see the same names on the November ballot and since Peltola did not come in over 50%, the ranked voting system goes into effect and in the next days we will see who won. She beat Sarah Palin in the second round last time and the pundits in Alaska, including the Conservative pundits, are expecting that she will win again, making this a D-hold.

    However, had this really been a Republican wave year, I suspect that she would have lost in the first round.

    Fun tidbit: John McCain / Sarah Palin won Alaska by +25 in 2008, just 14 years ago.
     
  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Last stop for now: California.

    California has by far the most extensive vote-checking system and allows itself an entire month to get every vote right. Lots of people complain about that but at the end of the day, we see almost no fraud of any type in California and that is fact. California lost one seat since redistricting, going from 53 seats to 52.

    So, right now in CA:

    2022 HOR 019.png

    Right now, 16 seats are not yet called in CA and there have been no pick-ups in either direction. However, this is deceptive.

    Of those 16, 3 are D vs D races due to the jungle primary system in CA: CA-15, CA-34 and CA-37. Therefore, although they are not called, we already know that these three races will be D wins.

    4 races are D incumbent races with very comfortable margins that are only going to grow: CA-06 (D+11.4), CA-09 (D+13), CA-21 (D+7), CA-26 (D+8)

    4 races are R incumbent races with very comfortable margins that are likely to shrink, but not enough to endanger the incumbent: CA-22 (R+8), CA-27 (R+15.2), CA-40 (R+18), CA-45 (R+10)

    1 race is an open race in a D district: CA-03 (R+6) - possible R-pickup, but wait and see, here only 44% of the vote is in.

    1 race is open and undefinable, the newly redistricted CA-13: R +0.2 (Duarte vs Gray). Anyone's guess here right now.

    1 race is an R-incumbent where the D is vastly ahead: CA-41 (D +13.4). This is a very likely D pickup.

    The final 2 races are D-incumbent races where the Democrats are endangered: CA-47 (Porter, D+1) and CA-49 (Levin, D+2.2). Porter just barely won her district in 2018 and did slightly better in 2020. Levin won his district in 2018 by a landslide +13 and then only by +7 in 2020, so we are seeing definite erosion here.

    The long and short of this is that we could see a net R+3 seats here, or quite actually, a D+1 because of CA-41. My gut tells me that when the canvasses are finished, it will be status quo here, just as I indicated in the OP.

    Republicans claimed that they would make massive inroads in California. They have not and they will not.

    Facts are facts are facts.
     
  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    So, as you can see, there is a real, factual reason why absolutely none of the networks, not even Fox, is willing to call the HOR for the Republicans quite yet. I am more than willing to wait until the last results come in and I do expect that, at the end of the day, the GOP may come in at 1 or 2 seats over the 218 needed for an absolute majority. There are just too many advantages on their side right now. But this will represent the smallest net +seat gains for a party in a mid-term cycle for the first time since, I believe, the 1920s, but I will get back with y'all on that one.

    However, there is still the remote possibility that the Ds pull a perfect inside straight and actually get to 218, though I am not betting on this.
     
  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Sooo, the smiley faces all mean "8"...


    Grrrrrrr
     
  17. Disaffected

    Disaffected Newly Registered

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    You're putting some serious effort into analyzing and sharing this stuff. Thank you!
    ::thread watched::
     
    bigfella and Statistikhengst like this.
  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    NM-02 has now been called for the Democrat = D-pickup
     
  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The newly created MT-01 has been called for the Republican. Technically this is therefore an R-pickup.
     
  20. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Gee, then why did the GOP pick up two House seats in AZ and so far the Dems have picked up none?
     
  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    As predicted, those three races have now been called for the Democrats, all three of them being D-holds

    Also CA-40 has been called for Republican Kim; this is an R-hold.

    So, we are now from 16 down to 12 CA seats not officially called.
     
  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    And so it was: WA-08 has been called for Schrier, and she won by +5. This is a D-hold
     
  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    In CO-03, incumbent Boebert has finally taken a very narrow +1,222 vote lead, which is less than +0.5%, which means that exactly as I predicted, this is heading for an automatic, state-mandated recount.

    And in CO-08, the Democrat is still ahead by +0.6%. This CD could come down to a recount as well, to note.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2022
  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The state of California has, as of right now, 34 days to get the final canvasses out from every county and precinct.

    They publish a handy list of how many votes are still to be processed and WHERE they are:

    Estimated Unprocessed Ballots for the November 8, 2022, General Election (ca.gov)

    As of right now:

    2022 HOR 020.png

    There are 4.8 million votes left to process. There is no guarantee that all of them are valid votes, which is exactly why California has this extensive process. But if you know which counties are D or R heavy and can see how many votes are still out, if there is a close race in that county, then you can see why no call has been made yet, of course.

    For instance, in Orange county, where Katie Porter is in a close race, 404,493 votes have yet to be processed.

    California also shows when the last update was made. It's really handy and helpful information.
     
  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    A big vote-count update is expected this evening out of Maricopa County, AZ. All eyes are watching to see how this will affect the 3 upper level state marquee races that are not yet decided.

    Right now, incumbent Senator Mark Kelly has a +5.6% lead over Blake Masters and more importantly, Kelly's topline statistic is close to 52% of the popular vote. With the Libertarian vote staying put at right around 2% (in spite of the fact that Victor dropped out of the race and swung his support to Masters at the last minute), this means that out of the 290,000 election day dropoff ballots left to be counted, Masters would have to win over 72% of those votes in order to overcome Kelly's +115,000 vote lead, something that has not yet happened in AZ's history. Mathematically, it IS possible, but the probability of this happening is greater than me being able to breath the Martian atmosphere. Kelly is vastly outperforming Biden's 2020 statitistic in this state, to be sure.

    In a "normal" cycle, without all the drama llama stuff of the last years, I am pretty sure that this race would have already been called for Mark Kelly and am pretty sure that that will happen by tomorrow, probably around 5 PM EDT.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2022

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