Dunno how I lost track of him but Bill Whittle can be viewed on Youtube. Just watched him review the suggestion that Joe Biden ride a pro-abortion wave to victory in 2024 with the admonition that "Americans Love Abortion". He notes that it was a huge issue in 2022 when even moderate supporters didn't really know for sure what a post Roe world would look like. He argues that the change has not been the extreme suggested. I didn't know youtube was doing this sort of thing, adding comments under videos. In this case, Which is incorrect in stating, "The procedure is done by a licensed healthcare professional." Not always it isn't. I wonder why they added that. Is this a winning strategy for Biden?
I’m one who thinks that abortion is already baked into the equation. That over the last 50 years of ROE, those avid pro choice have become democrats, those avid pro life have become republicans. By avid, I mean those who let abortion decide how they’ll vote. We know Republicans will vote for republicans and democrats for democrats. The only unknown is how independents will vote. Each major party’s base makes up around 30% of the total electorate, a total of 60%. Of course, there’s the normal ups and downs, but the bases have remained around 30% for at least a decade now, give or take a couple to three points. The thing about the SCOTUS overturning ROE, 24 June 2022, I think. Is the generic congressional ballot remained basically unchanged from that point until around the first week of August when Trump and his chosen candidates entered the fray. After Trump and his chosen candidates entered, the democrats narrowed the gap in the generic ballot to take the lead in September only to lose their lead in October. If abortion was that important of a factor in the midterms, I don’t think it would take 5 weeks before the generic congressional ballot moved. Today, Independents ranks abortion 8th on the list of most important issues today at 4%. Question 5 https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kpnwbn3sup/econTabReport.pdf Abrams here in Georgia made abortion her number one campaign issue, she still lost to Kemp by 8 points while Georgia voters were electing Democrat Warnock to the senate. Unlike the two major parties, if an issue doesn’t affect an independent personally, they usually don’t pay it much attention. Independents have a long track history of voting for the more charismatic candidate when it comes to presidential elections. Many swing voters look on elections as a beauty pageant or popularity contest.
I think that abortion is here to stay. Many people, like me, don't like it, but support it because the government should not be involved in that very private decision. The Republicans, like Ron DeSantis, are very foolish when they push for restrictive abortion laws. It is a loser issue from the political point of view because a majority of Americans, including many Republicans, support access to it. The Republicans who push for restrictive abortion laws run the risk of losing everything. It costs the party votes and allows the Democrats to push their left wing agenda by default. The Democrats can push their pro-abortion agenda to win elections, and then push the rest of the crap that many Republicans find unacceptable. Look at it this way, Republicans. If the Democrats gain control, they will be make abortion legal everywhere, and they were take it to lengths the you will find completely unacceptable. The Democrats will appropriate public funds for abortion, and they might well legalize very late term abortion and at the most extreme, infanticide.
Abrams did herself in when she pushed the Baseball All Star Game out of Atlanta with her Jim Crow BS. Losing that game cost African-American businesses and workers a lot of money for no good reason. As for Warnock, he make me puke.
I think almost any other Republican other than Trump chosen Walker would have easily beat Warnock. After all 58% of all Georgia disapproved of the job Warnock was doing. They however, disapproved of Walker more. Walker continued to fumble and bumble his way through the campaign. Independents which disliked Trump along with his chosen candidates was the deciding factor. They voted for Warnock 53-42 over Walker. Kemp won independents, 49-48. Which helped him beat Abrams 54-46 statewide while Walker lost 48-51. You can credit and or blame independents for Kemp’s win and for Walker’s loss. Bottom line, candidates matter especially to independents.
Exactly. After a fluke win in 2016, Trump is a 3-time loser. The Republicans lost the house, 42 seats in 2018. Trump lost to Biden and the Republicans lost the senate in 2020. In 2022 what should have been a red wave turned into a red trickle as many Trump chosen candidates lost in races that should have been won or at least could have. One might even call 2022 a blue trickle since the democrats gained a senate seat, 2 governorships while limiting their house loses to 9 seats. Here's a list of some of Trump chosen candidates that lost in 2020, that I can remember off the top of my head. Masters, Walker, Diehl, Cox, Laxalt, Oz, Bolduc, Tshibaka, Palin, Lake, Schmidt, Dixon, Mastriano.
The sad part is, some of them would have been good representatives without the Trump kiss of death. The thing that Independents should keep in mind is that a vote for a Democrat in the House or Senate is the same thing as a vote for Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden or Wakeem Jeffries. Given the near perfect party discipline the Democrats have, a vote for almost any Democrat to the House or Senate is an endorsement for the Democrat program.
I’d say for most independents they don’t care who’s in charge of either the house or the senate. It boils down to the candidates running. Remember, independents aren’t political junkies. They pay very little to no attention to the daily political grind going on in Washington until an election nears. Quite a lot of them wouldn’t be able to tell which party controls what. But they do decide which candidate for whatever office they like or dislike. They also knew they didn’t like Trump, so any candidate associated with Trump, that association rubs off. I believe if Trump hadn’t become involved in the midterms, just stayed in the shadows that the Republicans would have come close to their red wave. A pickup of 5 or so senate seats, 30 in the house, but that is just me, an opinion and a belief.
