Baseline Facts About US Crude Oil

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by Grey Matter, Oct 9, 2022.

  1. Grey Matter

    Grey Matter Well-Known Member Donor

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    US Crude Oil Production Totals by Month Jan 1920 - August 2020
    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=M

    US Crude Oil Export Totals by Month Jan 1920 - August 2020
    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCREXUS1&f=M

    US Crude Oil Import Totals by Month Jan 1920 - August 2020
    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRIMUS1&f=M

    I suggest building a sheet like this from these data sources:
    Column A: Date
    Column B: Production Totals
    Column C: Export Totals
    Column D: Import Totals
    Column E: Net Domestic = B - C
    Column F: Total Consumption = E + D
    Column G: Percent Domestic = E/F*100%

    I'm curious if anyone has enough interest in this topic to do this.
    If you are then what are your results of analyzing this data?
    How many months over this time period do the data show that US Crude Oil Consumption to the nearest full percentage point was 100% Domestic?
    How many months did imports makeup 50% or more of total consumption?
    Which month does the data show that the US was most dependent on imports?
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2022
  2. expatpanama

    expatpanama Active Member

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    This is all hot stuff for me, I just LOVE numbers. Most folks --especially folks on these threads-- never do numbers. Most folks like to just wave their arms around and yell hyperboles.
     
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  3. Grey Matter

    Grey Matter Well-Known Member Donor

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    Cool and excellent - happy you've made me by being interested in this post!
     
  4. expatpanama

    expatpanama Active Member

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    my only problem w/ petroleum numbers is that when political factions come into play the hard numbers are the first to go.

    Obama said we only had 10 years of "proven reserves" of oil so we're about to run out --ignoring the fact that we've had ten years of proven reserves for over a hundred years. We only "prove" our reserves ten years ahead. Same w/ the energy available in gasoline, we point out that replacing the energy used by trucks and cars would require a four-fold increase in electricity production --and the loyal members of various factions ignore it.

    Most folks don't care about hard numbers. If we run into a problem they'll just blame it on something like the evil rich. They just don't care about what's going on.
     
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  5. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    According to widely accepted definitions of "energy independent", we are independent today since we export more than we import


    How much petroleum does the United States import and export?

    https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6#:~:text=Crude oil imports of about,countries and 4 U.S. territories.
    In 2021, the United States imported about 8.47 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum from 73 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs), refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels. Crude oil imports of about 6.11 million b/d accounted for about 72% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports in 2021, and non-crude oil petroleum accounted for about 28% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports.

    In 2021, the United States exported about 8.54 million b/d of petroleum to 176 countries and 4 U.S. territories. Crude oil exports of about 2.96 million b/d accounted for 35% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports in 2021. The resulting total net petroleum imports (imports minus exports) were about -0.06 million b/d in 2021, which means that the United States was a net petroleum exporter of 0.06 million b/d in 2021.


    I remember him bragging about the US being on the verge of becoming worlds largest producer, which actually happened, and is still true.

    Do we still import? Yes. Do we still export? Yes.

    Why the U.S. Must Import and Export Oil
    https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2018/06/14/why-the-us-must-import-and-export-oil
    ...given our country’s much improved energy outlook, some may question why we’re still importing crude oil and refined products. And, while we’re still importing oil, why do we export domestic crude – especially when prices have risen at the pump? Why don’t we just keep American oil at home?

    Let’s discuss three factors – oil location, quality and quantity – to understand how U.S. petroleum trade and the policies that foster that trade have complemented the strength in domestic oil production, which in turn has helped to increase global supplies and keep oil prices relatively low and less volatile.

    More in link
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2022
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  6. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  7. Farnsworth

    Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    lol Biden doesn't tell big oil companies what to do; it's the other way around. Biden's policies had zero to do with oil price gouging or poor management decisions re logistics either. Anybody who keeps claiming that knows squat about the oil industry and is just parroting GOP bullshit propaganda.
     
  8. Grey Matter

    Grey Matter Well-Known Member Donor

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    It really is fascinating how I occasionally mess up my understanding of basic stuff.

    For example, never having been a refinery production engineer it just now came to my attention that volumetrically a refinery produces more products than it consumes from crude oil feedstocks.

    https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained...cts/refining-crude-oil-inputs-and-outputs.php

    This makes my suggested spreadsheet in the OP a little less than fully accurate, besides the fact that I missed including EIA data series for refined product overall production and exports.

    Digging around on this general subject I ran across a book from the Menlo Park, California think tank, SRI. For some reason it's just SRI now, but it started as the Stanford Research Institute and was chock full of hardcore PhD nerds designing all kinds of chemical processes. One of my profs saved an entire collection of their research reports that our library was going to scrap which provided basic design information for a wide variety of chemical engineering related production processes. I browsed through a couple of these design reports and they were somewhat lacking in the details that I was interested in seeing. Nevertheless, they did provide a basic blueprint of the unit operations required to make a given product from a given feedstock, and that alone is no small thing.

    This book would benefit some of the folks that are interested in the subject of global warming arguments around this place. But, be advised it is likely going to be difficult reading simply due to the authors' somewhat unsuccessful effort to present the numbers in a way that is easily understood and the excruciatingly terse nature of the subject from an engineering perspective.

    https://www.amazon.com/Cubic-Mile-Oil-Realities-Averting/dp/0195325540

    The one thing that is pretty cool that this book puts into perspective is how much crude oil we use across the globe: annually it amounts to about a cubic mile of crude oil every year, and almost all of it goes to transportation. We are using about half of this finite resource to commute to work in vehicles that have uniformly increased in horsepower while not so much having increased in mpg.

    I personally think the AGW stuff is debatable, but I absolutely will argue that we need desperately to find a long term replacement for our finite organic fossil reserves, both oil, gas and coal.

    Here is a blog by one of the three authors of this book,

    http://cmo-ripu.blogspot.com

    I've not finished reading this book yet, but apparently I am in store for it making the argument that nuclear power is our only option. I am opposed to this since I suspect that there will be no solution offered with regard as what is to be done with nuclear waste disposal - this stuff is easily the nastiest industrial waste ever created. Horrible problems with transporting it and even worse problems with storing it in place at locations that never should have been built if foresight had been planned toward storage-in-place.

    San Onofre has become a storage-in-place poster child of an example of decisions made to build a nuke plant at one of the worst places on Earth imaginable, a site historically known as Earthquake Bay, ffs.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2022
  9. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Yes, the advent of electric powered transportation will reduce our consumption of oil.

    Surely that is a good thing for everyone but oil and gas companies.
     

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