Thomas Gomart, Valdai Club expert shares his views on Europe's eastern frontier. The current internal political situation in Belarus is unusual. It was not that long ago that President Lukashenko was re-elected in elections seen as unfair by the international community. Unlike other leaders in a similar position, Laurent Gbagbo for instance in Ivory Coast, Lukashenko has been much more successful: he has managed to remain in office, there has been no intervention. The international community is much less interested in the domestic situation inside Belarus by comparison with that in other countries. Relations between Belarus and Russia are growing increasingly complicated, in part as a result of President Lukashenkos personal evolution, but also in the light of the Customs Union project (comprising Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan). Although the Customs Union project has undeniable importance for Moscow, dealing with President Lukashenko is becoming increasingly uncomfortable for Russia. In particular, the way President Lukashenkos regime has evolved has made it ever more difficult for the Kremlin, and especially for President Medvedev, to continue to deal consistently with this leadership. Domestically, the terrible terrorist attack in Minsk will certainly be used by the leadership to justify political restrictions and heightened political control. This is a process that can be observed in many countries, it is common for terror threats to be used to justify the introduction of additional security measures, which can have an impact on civil liberties. So from this point of view I do expect the political leadership will use it to justify an increased concentration of power. Full version of his article was published on valdaiclub.com
Well, I can have a guess only, but if he is a supporter of Kasparov the probability is zero, I think . Of course, he may correct me, if I am wrong.
Gbagbo bagged... Ivory Coasts Gbagbo On Way to ICC in Hague Tuesday, November 29th, 2011 - Former Ivory Coast president Laurent Gbagbo has left his country for The Hague after the International Criminal Court there issued a warrant for his arrest.
Gary , Isn't the point that Lukashenko's time is almost up -- he runs a very cruel and totally autocratic regime but real opposition now exists and they have flexed their muscles more than once .The signs are ominous? So the vultures are circling . Presumably it is axiomatic that Putin wants Belarus back 'in the fold" and his minions are fomenting troubles . Equally America has expectations but how they can think of inspiring a successful " Western " regime change is beyond me . Our good friend Boris Berezovsky is very active , I believe . I would laugh myself silly if he ever came to power --- idle fantasy . But what is he up to and whom does he think supports him tacitly?
Laurent Gbagbo made no comment during the hearing... Ivory Coast ex-President Laurent Gbagbo at ICC court 19 February 2013 - Ivorian ex-President Laurent Gbagbo has appeared at the International Criminal Court to hear whether he could be tried on charges of crimes against humanity.
only God knows, Lukash will stand his ground for at least 5 years more , the thing is that Belarus is in centre of europe . he plays a game west vs. russia ,and russia vs. west very well but his health is not that good so...
