Biden Winning in Texas

Biden up by 1 in Texas.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Is Texas now a battleground state? That must suck for the GOP. Kind of like Democrats not being sure which way California will go.

Trump hasn't led Biden in any general election poll since Feb.

 

Sooner or later Biden is going to have to come out of hiding. Well maybe not actually if the Democrat party has any sense. Cancelling the New York primary elections could signal other states to do the same. Then Biden doesn't have enough delegates to win the nomination and it's an open convention.

 

Is this the same way that Hillary was going to take Texas and Beto was going to become the states' senator? The political Left keeps SHRIEKING that Texas is turning blue . . . but it seems the only thing turning blue is their faces as they hold their breaths until it happens and then eventually just pass out. Wishing doesn't make it so.

 

Yes, at this point, it’s looking like a 95% probability Biden wins the Democratic nomination

 

We’ve got the cart before the horse on this pandemic so ultimately there will be a lot of unlikely states in play come November.

 

As I have pointed out AD NAUSEAM, these polls consistently overpoll Democrats and underpoll republicans. It’s consistent with nearly all of them.

That’s why they looked so stupid after the last election and apparently they haven’t learned their lesson.

 

Progressives royally ****ed up California and are now moving to red states to **** those up too.

Can you let us know when you turn the lights off in California so we can go fix the absolute mess made in that beautiful state.

 

Actually, a number of polls were pretty close, they were likely voters who they were going to vote for - not how thee Electoral College would end up lookin like.
Hillary ended up with votes of over million more voters than Trump. They were just in the wrong places geographically.

 

Polls predict the popular vote winner, not the electoral college winner. The polls were very accurate in 2016. Ironically, Rasmussen was one of the most accurate, and then they completely blew their Midterm prediction- they were the only poll that had the GOP up before the Midterms. Even Rasmussen now has Trump underwater.

This is still just the beginning. The voters will, I'm sure, weigh in on April's job report numbers and next quarter's GDP numbers when pollsters come calling.

 

I'm just speculating, but large Texas cities lean blue, and the rest of Texas leans red. I am willing to bet that most who were polled are from the urban centers, not the rural areas. Still, Texas will end up blue at some point, as more and more people who won't rely on themselves discover that they can obtain mOre frEe stuFf from the taxpayer by voting democrat.

 

You do realize there is a margin of error don’t you? 1 point means nothing.

 

That's 2.8 millions more for Hillary.

 

It doesn't matter.

All polls are wrong, no ?

Even though tens of thousands of Americans are polled every day.

Trump is going to win by a landslide.

 

I remember when you guys turned Texas blue in 2016, oh wait........

 

Biden has only two things going for him, name recognition and he is running against Trump. A one point advantage will go very rapidly when he starts actively campaigning. The name recognition element will disappear very rapidly. He will still be running against Trump, but it is a red state and when they get a better look at Biden, his gaffs and his treatment of women will be working against him.

 

I really don’t see Texas going blue in this election, probably not in the 2024 election — but demographics definitely don’t look good for team red in the long term.

We would likely not see another Republican president for a generation once this occurs.
We have been most prosperous and advancing as a society with a Democratic president and a split congress so I look forward to it.

 

What was the affiliation of the administration that has had the largest bailouts in the history of the nation twice and is currently paying a large percentage of the nation to sit at home? Talk about free stuff...

 

I've spent some time in texas, they aren't stupid but they know stupid when they see it.

as soon as biden gets in front of the camera again he will crash and burn.

 

Which polls were these that were close?

 

The difference being we do it reluctantly. Your side does it with glee

 

Hillary by a landslide.

 

Bull crap. You know how much of that money goes back into the pockets of Republican lobbyist who then spend it trying
to buy Republican votes and setting up Republican PACs. Both parties love handing out free money - they just differ on who gets it.

 

Fair enough. But lobbying shouldn’t be allowed anyway. Not by corporations.

 

Real Clear Politics ( which averages 10 of the major polls) had Hillary winning by +3.3 in the final average of
polls on the day before elections. Hillary ended up with +2.1% more votes than Trump. Most of these polls
have a 3% margin of error. Even Rasmussen had Clinton winning by +2. So the final polls were actually very close.

I know that early on, there were wider margins, but in the last few weeks before the election, the polls were moving pretty close
to the final popular vote count.

 

Ahh I thought you were saying they were close in polling the actual % of Republicans as we expect given their proportion of the total population. And the same with democrats and independents. But they don’t. These polls routinely oversample democrats, usually by 5% points or more and undersample republicans by the same on average. You don’t get an accurate portrayal of the electorate that way.