Bond Yields Show 60% Odds of U.S. Recession

'The bond market indicator that has predicted every U.S. recession since 1970 shows that the economy has about a 60 percent chance of contracting within 12 months.'

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...sion-with-bernanke-behind-curve-for-bofa.html

 

well.....for me the most bullet proof indicator that a recession is near is the yield inversion........the only problem now is with the fed buying treasuries plus this operation twist its hard to use this as an indicator !

 

T bonds are a bubble. (*)(*)(*)(*) will hit the fan when the T bond bubble bursts.

 

Interesting thread, excellent topic. When you say that the bond market has predicted every recession, what % chance was the trigger prediction? In other words, 60% chance does not seem to be an overwhelming number - perhaps not yet a prediction? If there is no recession, was this indicator wrong even though it left a 40% chance that there would be none? I'm more curious than anything...to me, a recession looks less and less likely.

 

the "TRIGGER" is a yield inversion, but thats not possible now because with the fed buying bonds it distorts the markets so its not possible to accurately predict a recession by looking for a yield inversion!