California's population has spilled over into Texas

Discussion in 'United States' started by kazenatsu, Oct 13, 2023.

  1. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    California's population starting to empty out into surrounding states (posted in Immigration section, May 1, 2018

    As some indication of how much recent massive immigration there has been into California from other countries:
    44% of CA residents do not speak English in their homes (posted by Robert, in Political Opinions & Beliefs, Apr 7, 2018 )

    A little more than half of the 15 to 20-year-olds in the state are now Hispanic (as of 2020 ).
    California soon on its way to being majority Hispanic
    We are talking about a state with more people than the entire country of Canada, so this was not just some small movement of people. (Due to so many people moving there, California's population exceeded that of Canada beginning in 1984. This despite Canada's population also growing due to immigration during this time)

    Have any of you heard before of a phenomena called "chain migration" ? A group of people move from area A to area B. That then pushes the people out of area B and they move to area C.

    One could say that certain populations has been displaced, and that massive migrations of people can end up having a "trickle-down" effect, in turn causing new movements of people.

    Californians fleeing for Texas so fast U-Haul runs out of trucks for them: report (posted by XXJefferson#51 in Current Events section, Jan 8, 2022 )


    "The Californization of the Texas Housing Market"
    The Wall Street Journal, by Adolfo Flores, October 10, 2023

    " Migration from more expensive states has pushed home prices out of reach for many locals; 'a very hard market for first-time buyers'

    Texas has long had a reputation as an affordable place to live, in large part because homeownership stayed within reach for the middle class.

    Now the state is being walloped by the same forces that have made homes a lot less affordable in many cities previously known for reasonable prices.

    "A lot of people were getting priced out of Austin and started moving into San Antonio," said San Antonio real-estate agent Marie Crabb. "They were getting priced out, according to them, by people from California. It was an interesting trickle-down effect."

    The influx of newcomers to San Antonio, coupled with a limited supply of homes, has driven up prices. The city’s top employers, predominantly in the military, education and healthcare sectors, provide stable but not high-paying jobs, contributing to the affordability challenge, said Ali Wolf, chief economist at housing-market research firm Zonda based in Newport Beach, California.

    "This is when San Antonio started to face some of the issues of the other markets," Wolf said. "Now home prices were aligned with some of the newcomers." "

    One study found that:
    "An immigration inflow equal to 1% of a city's population is associated with increases in average rents and housing values of about 1%. The results suggest an economic impact that is an order of magnitude bigger than that found in labor markets."
    Immigration and Housing Rents in American Cities, Albert Saiz, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton, June 2003

    The state of Texas is 68% bigger by land area than California, yet California currently has 33% more people. (as of 2021)
    Due to factors concerning climate, topography and geographic, Texas also has somewhat more "desirable livable" area than California, separate from just the statistic of land area.
    (discussed in more detail in this thread: How California Destroyed its Middle Class (A Cautionary Tale) )


    A short history for those who may not be aware...

    In the state of California, Los Angeles began to "decline" beginning in the second half of the 80s. And as far back as the late 60s and early 70s, cheap housing could be found in San Francisco. It was the center of the hippie movement. The hippies began moving away (many further north) starting in the mid-70s due to rising housing prices. San Francisco did not begin to start becoming unaffordable until the 90s, but really started becoming absurdly unaffordable after about 2002 or 2004.
    Back in the late 70s, many people who came from New York City to visit San Francisco used to remark how clean the whole city appeared; obviously it's changed to becoming one of the filthiest cities today, a result of several decades of mass immigration, overcrowding, and an out of control homelessness problem.

    I've read in the past (around 1998 to 2005) there was a lot of resentment by people in Oregon against all the Californians moving up there and turning their state into concrete suburban subdivisions and tract house developments. So one group of people pushes another group of people, and then those people in turn put pressure on another group of people in surrounding outlying areas.

    It's no coincidence the unemployment rates in the three states bordering California are so high. There is space for people to move to, if they travel far enough, but not necessarily jobs for them all in those areas.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2023
  2. dharbert

    dharbert Well-Known Member

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    Just like the illegal migrants, the people of California are spreading to other areas of the country so they can turn it into the shithole they just escaped from....
     
  3. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    Welcome to the new America Democrats have planned for you. If you're an American citizen you can take a number and wait in the back of the bus.
     
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  4. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So at the same time you had millions of people entering the state from foreign countries, half the time illegally, you also had millions of people leaving California, who had grown up all their lives there and whose parents were born there.

    Could it be said that these people were displaced by the incoming new population?

    Millions of people leaving the state in what has been termed a "mass exodus" and yet the state's population still managed to grow 66% since the year 1980.

    What has caused California’s transformation from a "pull in" to a "push out" state? The data have revealed several crucial drivers. One is chronic economic adversity (in most years, California unemployment is above the national average). Another is density: the Los Angeles and Orange County region now has a population density of 6,999.3 per square mile--well ahead of New York or Chicago. Dense coastal areas are a source of internal migration, as people seek more space in California’s interior, as well as migration to other states. A third factor is state and local governments’ constant fiscal instability, which sends at least two discouraging messages to businesses and individuals. One is that they cannot count on state and local governments to provide essential services--much less, tax breaks or other incentives. Second, chronically out-of-balance budgets can be seen as tax hikes waiting to happen.​

    https://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/great-california-exodus-closer-look-5853.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2023
  5. Texan

    Texan Well-Known Member

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    The housing market can't be all that bad in Texas. My 21 year old just closed on a home purchase in North Texas. I don't see prices dropping, but they are still affordable.
     
  6. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    See this map. All those different colored regions on the map have the same population (about the same number of people living within them).
    California is colored red on the map.

    [​IMG]

    Map comes from "California Is Insanely Huge", Business Insider, Walt Hickey, Jul 12, 2013
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2023
  7. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You're right. It's best we wait until there is an undeniable problem in all areas before thinking about doing anything about it.

    How do you think California got to the place where it is right now?

    People are stupid. Everything is a knee-jerk reaction. Only sometimes, by the time there would be a knee-jerk response, it is too late to do anything about the problem.
     
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  8. dharbert

    dharbert Well-Known Member

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    Yep, they will wait until white people only make up 10% of the population of California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas before all off the sudden a light bulb goes off in their head and they are like "Hmm, maybe there is a problem?"
     
  9. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    This article says that 700,000 residents from California have moved to Texas between the time of just 2010 to 2020.

    Californians Could Ruin Texas--But Not the Way You Might Think, Christopher Hooks, by Christopher Hooks, March 2021

    "Lone Star State leaders have worried about transplants importing West Coast values and politics here. But they've largely ignored the more pressing challenges newcomers are bringing with them."​

    The residents from California are having a disproportionate effect on Texas's population and housing market because they're almost always moving to be close to the bigger city areas.

    "Texas politicians love to characterize California as a 'failed state'. But a major reason for the emigration from California, in addition to high taxes, is high housing prices. Expensive real estate is [...] mainly the result of so many Americans wanting to live in California to begin with. Though the Golden State’s population growth has tapered off in recent years, it was much greater than Texas's over the past century. From 1920 to 2020, California's population exploded from 3.4 million to almost 40 million. Texas, which has about 65 percent more land area than California, grew from 4.6 million to 29 million.

    The primary advantages Texas has historically had over its competitors are its cheap housing and even cheaper cost of living. But those advantages are slipping. When Californians leave the Bay Area in large numbers for Austin and Dallas, the cost of living goes up here, and overpriced housing markets on the West Coast relax a bit. Texas cities are already struggling with rapidly rising rents and housing prices as well as an uptick in homelessness, and more and more natives are being pushed into outlying areas. "Texas is going through all these same issues that California and New York have had," says Steven Pedigo, the director of the Urban Lab at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, at the University of Texas at Austin. "We're just late to the party."

    In the Austin metro area, the median rent increased 45 percent from 2010 to 2020. In metro Dallas, it jumped 49 percent; in Houston, 34 percent. "For Californians and people from New York, Texas is quite affordable," Pedigo says. "But for people who grew up in Texas and for immigrant populations, this is an increasingly unaffordable place." "​
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2023
  10. Texan

    Texan Well-Known Member

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    That's not a terrible thing if we can price illegals out of Texas. Sucks for long term though.
     
  11. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's not how it works. illegals will pack 6 people into a one-bedroom apartment. There might be 2 or even 3 income earners in there.
    I saw a tiny 2-bedroom apartment packed with 6 Chinese men in there, very likely illegals who snuck in. In certain neighborhoods in Southern California it was not uncommon to hear stories of 40 illegals packing into one small house. They might take different shifts sleeping on the beds. Two bunk beds (total of 4) in each small child's bedroom. People sleeping on fold-out couches. Mattresses on the floor in the living room. The garage converted into another bedroom. Adult women sleeping in the same room with their elderly mother, or parents sleeping in the same room with their children. These desperate immigrants move in when working class Americans have been priced out of those areas. Only in super-gentrified areas like the desirable core part of New York City, or San Francisco, is it so expensive that immigrants cannot live there. In those cases most of the low-paid workforce are still immigrants, but they just have to live further away and have ridiculously long commuting times.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2023
  12. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Locals are being priced out of Texas and Florida. Here's where they're looking for affordable homes instead.

    Home prices in Texas and Florida have increased 30% and 42% since 2019, according to Realtor.com.
    For Texans, "the Midwest has emerged as popular recently because it is just by and large the most affordable region," Hannah Jones, Realtor.com's economic research analyst said.
    Floridians are searching for homes in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina.
    Texas has long been the go-to migration spot for Americans seeking reasonably priced housing and a low cost of living. But as 884,000 people moved to the state between April 2020 and July 2022, according to Census data, the cost of housing soared.
    According to Realtor.com, searches for properties within Florida are down, while searches from Florida for properties in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama are up.
    Compass real-estate agent Holly Meyer Lucas, who's based in South Florida, said she has seen dozens of middle-class, native Floridians sell their homes to newcomers and move out-of-state since 2018, when tax reforms drove many high earners to the no-income-tax state. Now, they can't afford to get back in.
    "What's happening is if they want to come back to our area, their $800 a month mortgage is not an option anymore," she said. "They have to pay nearly $4,000 a month to rent the same type of home."​

    Locals are being priced out of Texas and Florida. Here's where they're looking for affordable homes instead, Business Insider, Kelsey Neubauer (kneubauer@insider.com), October 15, 2023
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2023
  13. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    'We kept getting outbid': Californians moving to Texas explain why they're changing states

    Ryan Petersen’s roots in Orange County, California, run deep. Both his grandparents and parents were the original owners of their homes in Southern California and raised families there.

    But Petersen, 25, says he didn’t see a future for himself in the state.

    In 2021, Petersen and his wife, Erika Dominguez, found themselves struggling to make ends meet with the high costs of rent.
    "We were paying $2,400 a month for an 800-square-foot, one-bedroom apartment," says Petersen, who worked for a startup at the time. To help make ends meet, he also did side gigs for "Instacart and DoorDash in the evenings while one car was out being rented on Turo."

    The median value of a home in California was 2.7 times higher than in Texas in 2021, according to 2021 American Community 1-Year Estimates, making the move to Texas attractive for first-time homebuyers. For existing homeowners, the move would offer them a chance to bank a tidy sum of money from the sale of their home.

    In 2021, leaving California for Texas was the most popular interstate move in the country, with 111,000 people -- or 300 people a day -- making the change. The exodus that year represented an 80% increase from 2012.
    The number of people leaving California for Texas grew by 36% in 2021 compared with 2016 while the migration stream from all other states to Texas did not change, rising 0.1%, according to data from the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.

    'Bidding and losing on more than 20 homes'

    Facing a $500 rent hike in June 2022, Petersen and Dominguez decided in January that it was time to purchase a condo. To buy one in the $500,000 to $650,000 range at a 3.75% mortgage rate, it looked cheaper to buy than rent.

    "But we kept getting outbid on condos and townhomes, and we'd get outbid by 150 grand. Some of the places didn't even get back to us," Petersen says.

    While they bid on more than a dozen homes and lost, they only could view a few.

    "The lines were cut off at 9 a.m. There were too many people," he says. "My father had been a broker for 25 years and he had never seen these lines in his entire career. I mean, I'm talking lines that went out of the development down the street."

    While his parents had moved to Texas the previous year after selling their house for a tidy profit, Petersen, and his wife, who met as MBA students at Biola University, a private Christian University in Southern California, had never considered the move until their frenzied house-hunting experience.

    Soon they zeroed in on the Dallas area.
    When they started looking in Dallas, they realized that homes in the $400,000 to $500,000 range would get them four bedrooms with an office, three bathrooms, and 2,800 to 3,000 square feet.

    But the Dallas market was also hot.
    "There were a couple of homes, same story, got outbid by six figures. But those were like designer homes," says Petersen. "But they were in our price points, which was also the more shocking factor, 'Like, wait, I can have that?'"

    In May 2022, they bought a four-bedroom, three-bath, 2,800 square feet home with an office on a 9,000-square-foot lot for $500,000 -- $25,000 above asking.​

    'We kept getting outbid': Californians moving to Texas explain why they're changing states, by Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy, USA TODAY, August 2, 2023
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2023

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