China Will Defend North Korea If Invaded

I expect Kim will attack South Korea with the expectation the US will be held back in fear of nuclear attack, he will attack South Korea once he calculates the reliability, size and power of his nuclear arsenal adequately assures him the US will not attack him if he invades the south.

 

This miscalculation is certainly possible but will spell the end of NK as a result. In this scenario Lil' Kimmy literally forces multiple countries to defend SK from invasion with the United States in the lead. It is possible Kim is stupid enough to pull such a move, it would certainly solve the problem it represents but lead to new ones.

 

I think the next move is up to the Chinese and they've got less than 2 weeks to make it. They could immediately and discretely remove and replace Kim, they could agree to stand down while the US destroys whatever is agreed as strictly necessary to eliminate North Korean nuclear capabilities, or they could agree to an arrangement that would preclude reunification, or at least US military presence in the event of reunification.

 

The cost for "maybe not" might be 50 fold more?

Obviously there us no answer to both beliefs. What is true is sanctions dont work.

 

Sanctions don't work because there is evasion, if sanctions are complete and there's no evasion -they will work. There are 8-9 countries that have continued doing business with North Korea despite years of sanctions, 7 of them are nearly irrelevant, China is over 90% of North Korea's trade. It can't be that difficult to persuade China to stop evading the sanctions, they've got good reason to since otherwise it has to be war, which could be nuclear and on their doorstep. Right now China can have a hand in how things turn out, if they want no reunification or no US military presence if there is reunification, they can set those terms if they agree to not evade the sanctions. If China opts to continue the evasion they face the likely prospect North Korea will be decimated, Kim killed and they'll have no say in who succeeds, if the peninsula gets reunified and how US forces will deploy.

 

The "may never happen" means relative peace until something may happen. Your wish would mean that it will definitely happen but sooner than perhaps never

 

A crystal ball mind reading kind of guy?

 

Are you referring to yourself? You are the one who is going with the "let's attack them before they attack us" which will clearly (no ball needed) result in Seoul being destroyed and China getting involved. Whereas sensible people will see that going with do nothing militarily means that there are no definite deaths. So which is worse? Definite war now resulting with millions of deaths or smaller probability of any war in the future leading to the same millions of deaths?

 

The likelihood of war is greater as time passes and the magnitude of the conflagration increases as well. A war today would save millions of lives that will be lost in the same war next year.

 

Or if the U.S. parks nukes near China's border they could pull the trigger speculating that more of them would survive in the end than you by the numbers. Do you feel lucky?.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-threat-americans-should-not-panic-admiral-james-winnefeld/

 

It would seem to me North Korea is doing what every other sovereign country does every single day... protecting their own sovereignty. If your neighbor illegally invaded multiple countries under a false premise, killed millions of innocent civilians in the process, defied the most basic human rights in the form of illegal detainment and torture, raped, pillaged and plundered in the name of profit... would you believe they have any credibility?. Well no because we are not judged by what we say but what we do. Credibility is not something that is given gentlemen it is something that is earned and maintained through our actions.

As I pretty hard core conservative this whole scenario reeks of BS. As if to say I can do this and I have in the past on countless occasions but if you ever do the same then your evil and I will judge you as such... it just reeks of hypocrisy.

 

That retired admiral assumes Kim is rational, that the leader of DPRK would force his citizens to endure famine in order to acquire nuclear weapons suggests to me his rationality is questionable. Threatening to bring a sea of flames to the US and reduce it to ashes also seems a bit irrational.

 

To assume we are rational is quite irrational by Vulcan logic however who can trust a man with pointed ears?. Which brings about the notion of perspective and the fact that sovereignty demands each must pay a price for this supposed sovereignty unless you believe there is such a thing as a free lunch or something created from nothing.

Our great grandparents endured famine and hardship and external threats and busting their ass every hour of every day so we might know a better life than them... so what is your point?. Sea of flames?, fire and fury? both seem like ass clowns who have never really worked a day in their life in my opinion. I trust men and women with their boots on the ground who get **** done... any less is debatable and most likely hearsay.