https://theconversation.com/a-huge-...na-could-become-the-norm-for-australia-184254 This is a grave concern. The implications for climate change are really worrying Nd yes this is one of those “tipping points” that have been warned about for years. Thing is that although Australia may get wetter that will not necessarily mean a more productive agricultural sector as our continent is not set up to cope with flooding rains as mostly it turns into huge areas of shallow inland lakes cutting off roads and decimating communities
Unless of course what we're seeing is mere cyclical variation. Model vs Model: Is the North Atlantic Current Collapsing? 2022 › 06 › 07 › model-vs-model-is-the-north-atlantic-current-collapsing Dr. Willie Soon; 12,900 years ago the North Atlantic Current failed, likely due to the emptying of an enormous ... ramifications for Atlantic Ocean heat transport, Arctic sea ice extent and regional North Atlantic climate. However . . . The evolution of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1980 March 2022 Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 3(4) DOI:10.1038/s43017-022-00263-2 Authors: , Laura Jackson, Arne Biastoch, Martha W. Buckley, Damien Desbruyères, Eleanor Frajka-Williams, Ben I. Moat, Jon Robson Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate through its transport of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean. Decadal changes in the AMOC, whether through internal variability or anthropogenically forced weakening, therefore have wide-ranging impacts. In this Review, we synthesize the understanding of contemporary decadal variability in the AMOC, bringing together evidence from observations, ocean reanalyses, forced models and AMOC proxies. Since 1980, there is evidence for periods of strengthening and weakening, although the magnitudes of change (5–25%) are uncertain. In the subpolar North Atlantic, the AMOC strengthened until the mid-1990s and then weakened until the early 2010s, with some evidence of a strengthening thereafter; these changes are probably linked to buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the subtropics, there is some evidence of the AMOC strengthening from 2001 to 2005 and strong evidence of a weakening from 2005 to 2014. Such large interannual and decadal variability complicates the detection of ongoing long-term trends, but does not preclude a weakening associated with anthropogenic warming. Research priorities include developing robust and sustainable solutions for the long-term monitoring of the AMOC, observation–modelling collaborations to improve the representation of processes in the North Atlantic and better ways to distinguish anthropogenic weakening from internal variability. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has a key role in the climate system. This Review documents AMOC variability since 1980, revealing periods of decadal-scale weakening and strengthening that differ between the subpolar and subtropical regions. Read more: https://www.researchgate.net/public...Meridional_Overturning_Circulation_since_1980
This doomsday scenario has been presented and refuted before. Browse: Home / 2021 / February / 27 / Doomsday AMOC “Tipping” Claimed In ‘Nature’ Already Refuted…New Study: AMOC “Shows No Decline” Doomsday AMOC “Tipping” Claimed In ‘Nature’ Already Refuted…New Study: AMOC “Shows No Decline” By P Gosselin on 27. February 2021 Share this... A recent study appearing in Nature, “Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium“, authored by Caesar et al, hints at a global climate system on the verge of tipping out of control. According to their findings, the weakening of the so-called Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) in the 20th century is “unprecedented”, and likely because of man-made climate change. The paper claims that there was “a long and relatively stable period” that was then followed by “an initial weakening starting in the nineteenth century, followed by a second, more rapid, decline in the mid-twentieth century.” The AMOC has since reached “the weakest” level in recent decades. Rahmstorf’s doomsday scenario Also not surprising: one of the authors of the doomsday-like paper is climate über-alarmist researcher Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Climate Institute in Germany. According to Rahmstorf, the Gulf Stream “passing its tipping point” would lead to significant northern Atlantic sea level rise, a regional cooling and “massive effects on the entire ecosystem in the North Atlantic”. No consensus – contradicted even before release But the paper’s claims were contradicted already six days before its release. So much for consensus. A new paper by Worthington et al, “A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline“, tells us there’s been no decline, let alone a “weakest state”. Image Source: Worthington et al., 2021 . . . .
This is the same cretinous doom-saying we've seen thousands of times from anti-fossil-fuel hate propagandists: cherry-pick one phase of a cycle, and pretend it's a secular trend. The whole global warming fraud is based on pretending that the up-phase of the millennial-scale solar cycle that also caused the MWP and LIA is a secular trend rather than just the normal up-phase of the cycle.
You didn’t read the article did you? Did you even bother to google “ocean currents global warming” because I did.
Two second read. The blogs says refuted but the article says inconclusive. Data only up until 2017. We know that: "the downturn between 2008 and 2012 was the weakest AMOC since the mid-1980s." The rest is reconstruction. Inconclusive.
. . .Up until 2017. I think this is another case of let's wait another few years (for this miraculous downturn/reversal that you're hoping for).
It is in the second paper. I can't find the limit in the first paper with the 5-minutes that I'm prepared to allocate to it, which indicates sloppy writing. Edit: the graphs suggest recent data not included.
I was discussing the first paper, published in 2022. ". . . This Review documents AMOC variability since 1980 . . . "
Ok, and this paper suggests (through modelling) that AMOC collapse might not be such a problem as envisaged. Understood. Again, the ultimate test will be observation of what happens should it collapse, as is predicted.
Not just modeling. ". . . In this Review, we synthesize the understanding of contemporary decadal variability in the AMOC, bringing together evidence from observations, ocean reanalyses, forced models and AMOC proxies. . . . "
Unfortunately that paper is behind a paywall. I thought you meant a different paper. It does get confusing when you reference bloggists and then expect me to dig for the respective paper only to find the bloggist will reference several papers.
It gets confusing which one we are talking about. I had to Google your exerpt. Ah, Jack's talking about that paper.
