Could there be a second American Civil War coming?

I’m in the middle of a book called “The Fiery Trial” by Eric Foner. It is a great study of Lincoln’s evolving views of slavery, abolition, and colonization. Regularly, I am struck by the startling similarities in the arguments about slavery/abolition issues between 1830-1850...and oil/alternative energy issues today.

I’m not plagiarizing the book, these are my own thoughts.

From the moment abolition became anything but radical nonsense, many pro slavery economists, politicians, slave traders, and slave owning farmers predicted the total collapse of the American economy if slavery did not remain the chief source of farm labor for a foreseeable future determined by free market economic conditions.

From the moment alternative energy became anything but radical nonsense, many pro oil economists, politicians, oil companies, and businesses that rely on oil, have been predicting the total collapse of the US economy if oil does not remain our chief source of energy for a foreseeable future determined by free market economic conditions.

The economic interests that want to profit from renewable energy are looking at the oil industry the same way non slave owning farmers in the 1840’s looked at the cotton empire…as competition they need gone. If federal laws even more strict than Cap and Trade are pushed by states like California and New York, how are states that are dominated by traditional energy interests like Texas, Alaska, and Louisiana going to take that?

As the support of alternative energy picks up dramatic increases on moral grounds today in spite of oil‘s cost effectiveness, as did support for abolition in the 1840’s…does energy…specifically oil…have the potential to be the spark that ignites a second secession and civil war in America?

The likely players:

The new Confederates will be played the red states.
The new Union will be played by the blue states.
The new Liberty Party will be played by the Green Party
The new Whigs/Republicans will be played by the Democrats.
The new Democrats will be played by the Republicans
The new Slaves will be played by oil’s environmental impact
The new Abolitionists will be played by environmentalists
The new Slave Industry will be played by the Oil Industry

Whaddya think?

 

1st are you talking about another war of secession or an actual civil war to take power and create a new government?

2nd Why would all the red states band together like that, and what of the purple states?

3rd why are Republicans and Whigs in the same group?

its interesting, though I doubt, there would be a war over oil amongst ourselves.

 

I would agree. While a second civil war in America is not out of the realm of possibility in my view, I do not see oil as the catalyst for such an event.

 

It'd be real hard to picture how it would pan out. The U.S. isn't anywhere near as militarized as Libya and Egypt. Whichever side the majority of the military sided with would probably crush the other. It'd have to turn into some kind of insurgency.

 

The valuation will change to approximately 1/2 to 1/20th of the current value (i.e. the USA will become Mexico) within a time span of 3-6 months. At two points in time (i.e. now and 10 years in the future), the USA will be a stable environment with two massively different standards of living. At the inversion point (the 3-6 month time span during the devaluation of the dollar), race will be the primary factor to determine if the USA will remain as one country or three or more.

http://www.census.gov/geo/www/mapGallery/images/hispanic.jpg
http://www.census.gov/geo/www/mapGallery/images/black.jpg

 

I appreciate the maps, though I think the Hispanic one is outdated (its 21 years old, and the county I am in is very Hispanic today and not 10% like it is on the map). I like your hypothesis, but I find race to be not a factor. I think this is due to a couple of reasons.

1. African Americans don't have a real strong government as African Americans, our system is not nearly as segregated as you imply, if it was then South Carolina would be much different than it is today.

2. Hispanic is not really a race. Hispanics are not unified, Mexicans don't like Puerto Ricans who don't like Cubanos, who don't like Salvadorans, who don't like Spaniards, etc. Also Hispanic is more of a sub culture, but one that is definitely American to some degree. For example I have kinfolk in South Texas (San Antonio), where many of the people are of Mexican American descent. The thing is they have been there longer than the Texans, they are as patriotic of Americans as anyone. I have never met so many "mexicans" who can't speak Spanish, than I have down there. I don't think they deserve some of the grief they receive, just because who their ancestors were.

 

Pretty much far fetched.

 

Probably wouldn't last long if there was one...

​

 

I'm talking about another attempt to seceed...and the subsequent quelling of that secession, or as the blue states would call it...rebellion. I'm envisioning the red states deciding they no longer want to be part of a country that includes blue states. The current existance and cultivation of this sentiment by the GOP, and probably even the christian right as well, is evidenced by the idiotic gross generalization in smartmouthwoman's last post.

I could see government mandates for public transportation usuage over private vehicles being something that could push the culture war over the top, and cause states like Texas to lead the secession charge. I'm thinking the south, Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and the rest might be persuaded to also seceed based on a laundry list of issues, including race relations, entitlements, religion, and so on...

Great question...in the early 1800's...the north was moving towards an industrial free market economy without slavery and the south wanted to remain a largely slave based agricultural economy. States that are currently red, produce more oil than blue states, and are politically inclined to resist alternative sources of energy. You just don't know how this thing will play out in the next 30 years so it's hard to identify which states will be purple, red, or blue by then. But we know for sure Texas and Alaska would never be liberal blue states, and we know California and New York would never become conservative red states.

I don't have a thesis worked out in my head...I'm just spit balling.

My bad...I should have said "northern Whigs" and Republicans. The most notable whigs close to the end of that party were people like Lincoln, Clay, and Webster. You just don't hear a lot about the southern whigs, and of course they would be lumped in with Democrats

It doesn't seem like it now...but if cultural hostilities increase...and states like Texas that already talk big about secession get something to be really angry about...it could be as incendiary as slavery was. We already show a willingness to fight other countries over oil interests, and I don't think our own intensifying culture war combined with that willingness lacks the potency to get us to possibly fight ourselves, again.

Just my opinion.....thanks for your response.

 

Thanks for the clarification. I agree with you on states like Alaska, Montana, and Idaho, but the South is pretty tied into “the system”. There may be a state or two in the south that considers it, but many have been brought into the circle by the way of reconstructionist policies over the years. The southern states that seem to be the most individualistic IMHO are Texas and Louisiana.

I still am not sure that it is against the constitution to secede, and I am not confident that there would be a war to prevent such a secession.

Well I hate to confuse the issue more, but I mentioned purple states, because I am originally from one. I refer to it as the People’s Republic of Illinois (in jest). The Blue strongholds are in counties that also have large metropolitan areas. I think this is as much an Urban v. Rural Issue, as red v. blue. For example you mentioned Texas never becoming a blue state, yet Dallas, Houston, Austin, El Paso, and San Antonio are blue, and the counties they are in are blue. Here is an excellent interactive map (http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html ) where you can click on a sate and see how the counties are divided red or blue. I bring this up because it happened before with the establishment of West Virginia, and Almost happened in a few other states (Kentucky and Tennessee). Since we are talking about secession, we may as well discuss counties forming their own states from states that refuse to secede.
I brought up Illinois because it is seen as a blue state, yet in 2004 when John Kerry won the state he only won 15/102 counties (Bush won the other 87).

Look at this map: http://www.galaide.org/old_weblog/image/2004countymap3.gif
now look at the Blue State of Illinois. Or the states that you said would never go red Like NY or CA. Do you see what I mean? Its hard to group a whole state as one color, when its apparent that the colors are mostly tied to population density. http://npaphistory.wikispaces.com/f...nsity.jpg/96297444/usa_population_density.jpg

You are welcome. Thanks for the great topic.

 

Highly unlikely that there will be any civil war in the uSA. We must look at the American conditions and where they are leading us to in the future. First, American public schools breed slow thinking, un-motivated, privilaged, lazy, consumers for the past 2 generations and that trend will only get worst. Secsond, the mix of races in most of the US's highly populated areas are to mixed to draw racial lines (but this is not to say there is no potential for riots), and with more immigrants flowing into the USA the USA will be even more mixed up in the future. Third, Common American familys have relitives in all services and occupations of almost every sector of all industries, with more diversity will come expansion to different geographical locations domestic and abroad.

So as you can see, the future holds these trends to be ongoing and steady without significant elimination of any condition. So let's evaluate what these American Conditions mean; First, the education will create a lower intelligent work force that is too lazy to get out of their safe and secure environments to gather in any protest. Second, with less white people and more ballance of races accross the most populated areas, as well as more mixed race people, the chance of a race riot will be unlikely. Third, due to the lack of employment and capitolistic opportunity, most people will be seeking jobs abroad, so the chance of them collectively gathering to rally up a war is unlikely, as they would choose to move out of the USA rather than war.

So there you have it. With the 3 major Conditions in the USA, the chance of a civil war in the USA is not likely. People are too lazy and dumb, they will not care about gathering for a cause or fight their own family or realitive in other parts of the USA because of class or social warfare. And because the USA has no room for growth, people will be venturing to other emerging/growing nations for jobs and future.

So the trend is to invest overseas, try to learn another language, and take advantage of the American dream where it is possible. And right now the Possibility of the American dream is not in the USA, but in other parts of America.

Only the intelligent, brave, and adventuer will find happiness and success wherever they decide to plant themselves around the world. They will have great fun experiencing and learning, and adapting to new things.

Other less intelligent Americans who live in fear and don't adapt well to changes, will continue to live in their closed-in environments, and will not be so happy when the jobs dry up in their little safe home villages in the USA. And they will be the first ones to want to lash out to start a war. But the only enemy they will fight is their own demise, as these kinds of people will only beat themselves. And they do not need to be part of the human race. Darwin explained it well. If an organism can't adapt and mutate, it will become extinct.

 

when the currency crisis hits soon....depending on how the government handles it then yes..... a civil war is possible!

 

that would only be a piece of what is necessary for a civil war, but timed right, it could definitely be a catalyst. the main factor, i believe, is the runaway totalitarian remodeling of the system that was designed by jefferson and washington.

there's already a civil war, only reason we don't notice it is because we're not fighting back.

 

I think there is always the illusion that revolutions come from conflict of ideology, but they really come from "who gets what" financially speaking.

The American revolution had way more to do with taxes and the crown than it did liberty and freedom.

The connections between slavery and oil/green energey are astounding, if you study very closely the Daniel Webster, Henry Clay, Abraham Lincoln days....basically 1820-1855.

At this rate....a conflict could be possible around the time the Saudi oil feilds are supposed to dry up, 2050ish.

 

This is only logical (minus the Saudi silliness). Very few people ever fight for purely ideological reasons. Money/Resources are what affect our daily lives. When they're affected people react. It's very naive for anyone to think that wars are fought based on ideology.

 

Wealth is the motivation, liberty and freedom are the cover stories.

 

Me and my dumb red neck friends will come by your house with guns to pick you up to work in our salt mines.

 

Me and my California computer programmer nerdy science geek friends will IUD the road, then make any of your friends that are left, work our salr mine.

just kidding, I would never threaten violence.

 

What's an IUD?

 

I also think it much more likely that the 1 million+ Iraq/Afghanistan combat veterans trained and experienced in small arms, explosives, and counter-insurgency tactics would annhilate your pasty white Mt. Dew drinking computer geek friends.......or make them their programing b****es. Playing WoW 12 hours a day doesn't exactly hone that killer instinct.

 

They're not all homicidal conservative gun nuts yu know.

Besides.....my computer geel friends can destroy you with thier computers. Hack into all the electronics behind your gadgets...and send them back at you.

This is getting silly now isn't it?

 

Write a book about it.

 

I've actually thought about that, and the trouble is the timeline. Because the green energy movement isn't picking up speed as fast as abolition did, bt other than that...I bet it's would cause at least some discussion

 

Dadgum! It doesn't get said any better than that! My hat's off to you, ma'am!

 

If you take into account the GDP of red states and blue states....it would be about the same disadvantage for red states as it was for slave states in 1860.......about a 5 to 1 advantage in population, and a 4 to 1 advantage in GDP.

The red states would be crushed, the numbers are just not in the red state's favor, no matter how tough you (*)(*)(*)(*) kickers are.

The Germans had the same deal in WWII, there armies were superior in experience, efficiency, and equipment...they just lacked the numbers and manufacturing capability. Also, the red states would lack naval strength