COVID-19 containment measures should show up immediately.

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by James7, Mar 29, 2020.

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  1. James7

    James7 Active Member

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    According to Wikipedia, the COVID-19 incubation period is typical 5 to 6 days but could be anywhere from 2 to 14 days.

    This means that the incubation period of COVID-19 is not exactly 14 days as the media seems to be making out. We are told that because the incubation period is so long, "14 days", we will have to wait 2 weeks or perhaps even longer, before we start to see the number of new cases fall.

    But if the incubation period is as low as 2 days, we would expect to see the number of new cases start to fall almost immediately as soon as the containment measures are introduced; such as self-isolation, social distancing and lockdown.

    Yet this doesn't seem to happen.

    So how is the virus continuing to spread despite the containment measures?

    One suggestion is that many are not taking the situation seriously enough or are flagrantly breaking the rules.You hear so many stories out there of people coughing loudly and noticeably in public. Another group of people who may have a problem with lockdown conditions are drug addicts. How are they coping with the situation?

    One solution is strict enforcement of self-isolation rules by police equipped with infrared thermometers that take a non-contact reading of people's foreheads. Although this may sound incredibly authoritarian, at the end of the day it's the only way to do it.
     
  2. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    They use 14 days because anything less than that is a risk - since COVID symptoms can show up that long after infection.

    Yes, people aren't staying home. Spring break is a great example. Plus, there are those on this board who think doing what experts suggest is ridiculous.
     
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  3. Libby

    Libby Well-Known Member

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    The weak link is human nature. When people who used to handle their grocery shopping with two monthly trips are now hitting all the supermarkets and dollar stores daily, partly out of boredom, we can't stop them. The same can be said for mom and dad loading up the kids for a grocery shopping outing (kids touch EVERYTHING, one parent can shop alone.)
     
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  4. James7

    James7 Active Member

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    You say, "They use 14 days because anything less than that is a risk". But that only applies to the time spent in self-isolation. How would that effect the actual number of new symptomatic cases that arise each day where you would expect a statistical split through a range of 2 to 14 days?
     
  5. James7

    James7 Active Member

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    You say, "They use 14 days because anything less than that is a risk". But that only applies to the time spent in self-isolation. How would that effect the actual number of new symptomatic cases that arise each day where you would expect a statistical split through a range of 2 to 14 days?
     
  6. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Yes. People aren't usually isolated enough to know exactly when they got infected. Sometimes it can be figured out without testing - like, they just returned from the crowded beaches of spring break in FL.

    Another factor is that we have nowhere near enough tests. So, they usually get reserved for those who are already showing symptoms, when hospitals are checking to see if a patient may be released, medical workers, etc.
     
  7. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    I actually saw this yesterday when we went food shopping, there were a bunch of kids in the ****ing local market. What the models can predictably count on, is that humans are sheeple sometimes. Just freaking stupid.
     
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  8. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The US will have to endure a far slower reduction in infection rate than other nations due to our valuation of the civil rights that prevent authortarian prevention measures like enforcing total isolation.

    And imo thats just fine. Freedom is worth it.
     
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  9. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    reduntant reduntant
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  10. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    It is WAY more than just liking freedom. Other western nations love freedom. That isn't unique with the US.

    Large numbers of Americans WANT to see our goverment as no more than one big fat partisan political conspiracy. Listen to Rushbo. Remember what Trish Reagan and Hannity have said.

    Large numbers of Americans WANT to believe experts know absolutely nothing - that educationn in the sciences and medicine is totally meaningless or even destructive.
     
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  11. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    I won't say experts know nothing. I will say they tend to overstate themselves and hence are responsible for their own plight. Of course, when a doctor or an expert sticks to the facts(such as the biology of the virus/human body and what's happening), sure. But let's take this recent controversy over the medicine.

    Why is it a national affair on these possible treatments? I thought we agreed what goes in the doctor's office, stays in the doctor's office? We "trust" Experts when they say what we want them to say, but we dismiss them or force them to say things we want them to say.

    The result was this medicine issue.
     
  12. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Better folks looking for conspiracies that arent there than folks ignoring ones that are.

    As to the rest of it- are you drunk?
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
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  13. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    What did they overstate?

    Believing experts only when they say what you want to hear is exactly the same as not listening to them.

    I don't know what "medicine issue" you mean.

    When real treatments are found, there will be a huge production issue. Are you referrig to the challenge of ramping up producion?
     
  14. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    The Trump/Rushbo/Trish Reagan conspiracy that COVID is a partisan plot against the president had the potential to misdirect millions of Americans to ignore measures we needed to take.

    At least Reagan was raving about that on Fox just 2 weeks ago!

    That's serious damage. And, it clearly still exists as we see from the FL beaches crowded with spring break revelers.
     
  15. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking about the same thing.
    • Mean incubation period observed:
      3.0 days
      (0 - 24 days range, study based on 1,324 cases)
      5.2 days (4.1 - 7.0 days range, based on 425 cases).
    • Mean incubation period observed in travelers from Wuhan:
      6.4 days
      (range from 2.1 to 11.1 days).
    So Mean should be 3-7

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

    We should see improvement after a week. CA went statewide shelter-in-place on 3/20/20. The graph is tough to read, but the last day is 3/29/20 which puts the peak at 3/26/20 or 6 days after the orders were put into place.

    upload_2020-3-29_19-27-8.png

    Deaths:

    upload_2020-3-29_19-30-37.png

    Deaths peaked on the 27th.

    It looks to me like it's working.

    https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/
     
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  16. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So you think FOX is heavily influencing spring-breakers?

    Im doubtful. But I'll take your belief that todays youth have a conservative bent as a positive sign for the future.
     
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  17. Libby

    Libby Well-Known Member

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    ROFL..... good point.

    Meanwhile, the most coronavirus cases in Florida are clustered in the bluest blue part of the state ---- south Florida / Miami / Dade area. It must be all of the "Trump/Rushbo/Trish Reagan conspiracy" they're listening to down there. Ditto California, Washington, and NY, where I'm sure they're all tuned in to the "Trump/Rushbo/Trish Reagan conspiracy" rofl :roll:

    It's the mainstream media which has done the most damage. If people had just listened to Fauci and Trump and Pence and the CDC, and turned off the MSM, there wouldn't be nearly the half-baked paranoia and mistrust flying around.
     
  18. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    It does look good!

    My understanding is that Santa Clara county stopped reporting on the 27th for some unknown reason. I don't know how much difference that would make.

    That's where my daughter lives, and I seriously hope it's slowing down there as well as in the rest of CA, but I think we need more than 3 or 4 days of data to claim there is a trend - even if only to let the data reporting shake out.
     
  19. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    No, I don't have any idea how much spring breakers listen to news of any kind.

    However, spring break in FL is evidence that a significant group didn't get the message.

    Without a consistent message I don't know why our commitment should be expected to improve.
     
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  20. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    You're going to pull a muscle if you aren't careful in how hard you push your partisanship.
     
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  21. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I figure they got the message, but calculated the risk of getting/transmitting Cvirus was an acceptable trade for a week of drunken debauchery. Hormones will do that ;)

    Despite the decades of progressive/collectivist domination in the establishment, theres still a healthy individualist presence in this nation. Certainly a pandemic is prolly the worst time for it to be on display, but the pandemic will pass, and America will continue to be a bastion of individualism.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
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  22. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't incubate.
    It starts replicating immediately and people are shedding high viral loads within a few days
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  23. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    I haven't read that anywhere, but that would explain a lot if true. It would mean that people are catching it, clearing it and then it passes onto the next person.
     
  24. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The virus is far more of an urban problem. It has that in common with progressivism.

    Social distancing is a part of everyday life for those of us that avoid life as rats living stacked atop one another.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  25. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    would also show that warmer weather is not gonna stop the virus
     
  26. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    They contributed to more people being sick.
     
  27. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    It gains entry to a cell, takes over the cell's replication apparatus and starts replicating.
    It bursts the cell and freshly minted virus repeat the process
    Just because symptoms don't arise immediately doesn't mean it's not replicating.
    But the mean time to symptoms is 5 days.
    Essentially all victims will show signs by 14
     

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