Covid-19 Mortality vs Regular Flu Mortality - Doing the Math!

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by Derideo_Te, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    There seems to be way too much political bovine excrement out there so it is time to state some known facts and extrapolate the math from there.

    The regular Flu Virus is a DIFFERENT strain to that of the Covid-19 virus.

    The regular Flu Virus has a KNOWN mortality rate of 0.01%.

    https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

    The regular Flu Virus kills between 12,000 and 61,000 each year.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

    [​IMG]

    As yet the Mortality Rate of the Covid-19 is UNKNOWN precisely and we have ESTIMATES ranging from just 1% to over 3%.

    So let's do the math using what we KNOW about the Flu Virus mortality rate and the ESTIMATES for Covid-19.

    We will use an AVERAGE of deaths as provided by to the CDC as the baseline for the 0.01%.

    61k + 12k / 2 = 36.5k

    Low Covid-19 estimate of 1% comes to 365,000 deaths.

    High Covid-19 estimate of 3% comes to 1,095,000 deaths.

    That was using the AVERAGE!

    Using the Covid-19 Low 1% estimate the CDC Range provides a Low of 120,000 and a High of 610,000.

    Using the Covid-19 High 3% estimate the CDC Range provides a Low of 360,000 and a High of 1,830,000.

    So with those numbers the death toll from Covid-19 could be a LOW as 120,000 and as HIGH as 1,830,000.

    If we make the assumption that the final number is somewhere in the middle we end up with 975,000.

    However these numbers do depend on a number of factors which include the effectiveness of the containment measures that might be implemented.

    China has locked down 60 million people in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus and it has already resulted in over 3000 deaths. That is the current toll and it remains unclear when this is going to end.

    What does need to be noted is that not counting the Spanish Flu the Asian Flu and the Hong Kong Flu resulted in world wide death tolls between half a million and 2 million. That leans towards corroborating the math above.

    Air travel has greatly enhanced the ability of Covid-19 to spread since then and our ability to deal with pandemics has advanced medically but not significantly when it comes to containment of large numbers of people.

    Yes, it would be nice if it all just went away but that is not going to happen unless we take more serious precautions IMO.

    Best advice is to reduce your own exposure to the bare minimum and use pragmatic measures like washing your hands.

    Going to revisit the math as the data starts becoming more verifiable.
     
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  2. Thehumankind

    Thehumankind Well-Known Member

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    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...oronavirus-white-house/ar-BB10XWg4?ocid=ientp
     
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  3. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/51791199

    Italy has the 2nd highest number of cases per million people just behind S.Korea.

    China's containment appears to be bringing the number of new cases per day right down and the number of deaths per day into the low 20's. What China is doing does appear to be working effectively.

    Italy is going the other way with a growing number of new cases per day and a rising death toll. Going to keep a close watch on them and see if their containment strategy works as well as it does in China.

    S.Korea is keeping schools closed and banned all sporting events and other large gatherings of people. They appear to be getting a handle on their problem which is far better than Italy is doing.

    Worth noting that Iran is struggling and losing the battle since it has not implemented any lock down policies and it has only closed schools and recommending that people do not travel.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    In summary draconian containment measures seem to be an effective means of stopping the spread of Covid-19.

    Nations that have not taken these drastic steps are seeing increasing numbers of cases and deaths as a result.
     
  4. StillBlue

    StillBlue Well-Known Member

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    One major factor missing is vaccinations. 160 million doses of vaccine were distributed for the regular, annual flu. There is no vaccine for covid-19 so the infection rate could be much higher.
    Getting on soap box.
    WASH YOUR HANDS!
    The overwhelming majority of disease transmission is through the hands. If an infected person touches their mouth, eyes or nose and then your hand and you then touch your nose, mouth or eyes then BINGO you're infected. Not just covid-19 but many others as well.
    STOP SHAKING HANDS!
    Here when there is an ebola outbreak in the area we immediately stop shaking hands and bump elbow in greeting instead. Unless you and your friend are extremely flexible you never touch your eyes, nose or mouth with your elbows.
    If you need to sneeze or cough do it into a tissue or better still, turn your head and do it into your shoulder. Even if you use a tissue wash your hands after you dispose of it.
    DID I MENTION WASH YOUR HANDS FREQUENTLY AND STOP SHAKING HANDS?

    Hopefully if these measures are universally adopted it will slow dramatically the spread of the virus until there are vaccines, better treatments and we find out if it's seasonal.

    Don't forget to wash your hands or did I say that already?
     
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  5. garyd

    garyd Well-Known Member

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    And what precisely do you want done about it that isn't already being done?
     
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  6. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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  7. StillBlue

    StillBlue Well-Known Member

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    First of all it would help if it appeared the government was taking it seriously publicly and so the population would take it seriously. Right now the impression from the administration is "Nothing to see here folks. Move along."
    If the spread is to be mitigated the active participation of the population is required and the sooner the better. Minimizing the threat is the worst thing that can be done because you don't get the national unity required.
     
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  8. garyd

    garyd Well-Known Member

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    The government is taking it seriously We've doubled production of Test kits step one. Trying to stop media driven panic is step two. Panic serves no purpose. People seldom listen to sensible advice while they are panicking.
     
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  9. StillBlue

    StillBlue Well-Known Member

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    Telling people it's fake news does not calm a panic it causes one. When the policeman says "Move along, nothing to see here" it's a guarantee to encourage rubbernecking. Honestly, Trump needs to shut up so the CDC and WHO can get their messages out and people can find out the best ways to protect themselves and it isn't buying toilet paper.
    Did you wash your hands?
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2020
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  10. garyd

    garyd Well-Known Member

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    Again the admin is trying to prevent panic and calm fears in the midst of media driven panic attack and that's a good thing. The fake news is that the Admin is doing nothing. and the A.S. media isn't giving such instruction nor are they passing them along when the CDC is issuing them. The leftwing media is doing little more than screaming we're all gonna die because Trump.

    Oh and for what it's worth I do wash my hands multiple times a day. It's part of the protocol when your wife has type two diabetes and is a stroke victim.
     

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