Estimate: 86% corona infected go undetected

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

estimate 86% go undetected
last week 5,700 confirmed usa cases
94 deaths
14% detected = approx. 41,000 total cases
94 deaths
.0022% mortality rate


2 countries hit the hardest and look beyond just the number of deaths and reported cases. Why are they different from other places?

24% Italian adults smoke

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ITA/italy/smoking-rate-statistics
Italy has the 2nd most number of elderly

https://www.prb.org/which-country-has-the-oldest-population/

Italy has govt run health care

https://www.allianzcare.com/en/supp...l-healthcare-systems/healthcare-in-italy.html

Talk about a triple whammy

The healthcare system in Italy is a regionally based national health service known as Servizio Sanitario Nazionale (SSN). It provides universal coverage to citizens and residents, with public healthcare largely free of charge. Treatments which are covered by the public system and a small co-payment include tests, medications, surgeries during hospitalisation, family doctor visits and medical assistance provided by paediatricians and other specialists. Furthermore, medication, out-patient treatments, and dental treatments are also available. However, public healthcare facilities in Italy vary in terms of quality depending on the region.



While the standard of public hospitals in Italy is generally adequate there are some state hospitals that fall well below the standards that some expats would be accustomed to. Therefore, regardless of where one comes from, it is best to organise health insurance before moving to Italy. Without it, issuance of a Permesso di Soggiorno (permit to stay) may not be possible.





28% Chinese smoke

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6546632/


Also, in high infected areas, the majority live in multi-dwelling-units in densely compact areas.

 

Along a similar vein inside the United States the majority of deaths have occurred with the inhabitants of one elder care establishment. That's not to say that things won't get grim for the entire nation, but so far that's the nature of the death statistic here.

 

Somehow I doubt we will be another Italy.

 

If this is true it means the Corona virus has about the same mortality rate as the common flu which means we are overreacting and destroying our economy for nothing.

"Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says."

https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/86-of...rus-are-walking-around-undetected-study-says/

 

FYI, check your thread title.

I thought we had known that you can be contagious for an extended period with no symptoms.

 

So 100,000 infections with a 5% mortality rate would be better than 1,000,000 infections with a 1% mortality rate? Do you think the mortality rate alone is the only measure of the seriousness of the situation?

Lots of people getting infections could be an argument for it being an even more serious situation since it makes it even more difficult to control the spread and protect the minority of people who are most vulnerable to the serious outcomes.

 

duplicate. I started a thread several hours ago

http://www.politicalforum.com/index...nfected-go-undetected.569701/#post-1071520935

 

we won't be

Also, if hypothetical models to "flatten the curve" can be tossed around, so too must models using the 86% undetected. It destroys the mortality rate hysteria

 

More people infected with mild or no symptoms changes the denominator and brings the mortality rate down to flu levels.

 

And I commented in it LOL. Guess I'm not fully awake yet.

 

I think we should call this The Great Toilet Paper Massacre in the history books and then add . . . hysteria brought about by the Dem Party's leadership via their Mainstream Media outlets for political reasons, including the deliberate destruction of the national economy. One wonders if tree hugging leftists have realized how many more trees are going to die so that all of their panicked ilk can handily wipe their rumps?

 

Well really the mortality rate was always the same, we're just becoming clearer about what it actually is. The same number of people are falling seriously ill and dying regardless (and will continue to do so if we didn't take action) and surely that is the primary consideration for the seriousness of the situation.

 

I don't think we'll ever have truly accurate numbers/statistics for this.

In Florida, for example, we've almost entirely only been testing people if they had respiratory symptoms AND a fever AND they'd recently traveled internationally (or been in close contact with someone who had) AND are elderly and high risk.

I follow several Facebook groups for cities/town where I either live, own property, work, or vacation. Every day there are personal stories of people being rejected for testing because they don't check all of the boxes. (Most often it's because they are "too young", sometimes it is because they aren't directly connected (that they know of or can prove) to anyone who has recently traveled internationally.)

Unless we test EVERYONE we are not going to have accurate numbers about infection rates, recovery rates, mortality, etc., and we simply don't have enough tests for that, at least not in Florida.

This means a lot of people who may have had COVID-19 may have had it and subsequently recovered and won't be counted in the statistics because they were never tested in the first place.

Likewise it is risky (and has the potential to be fraught with errors) to count on statistics provided by other countries for a myriad of reasons, from testing limitations, to concerns about honesty and accuracy. Like the old saying ---- garbage in, garbage out.

Which means the statistics are largely a lot of smoke and projections and educated guesses.

 

Same number of people dying with a vastly increased number of those infected greatly reduces the mortality rate which is the supposed reasoning for the panic and hysteria leading to shutting down our economy.

 

The mortality rate is not the reason for much panic and certainly not for any of the rational policy decisions around the world. The infection rate and the uncontrolled spread has always been the strongest driving influence. We've long known that a relatively small proportion of people infected will suffer serious symptoms and specific sub-groups of the population are most susceptible to that. It's also long been suspected that there is a large proportion of unidentified individuals carrying the infection. Having that suspicion supported by scientific study doesn't actually change very much in practical terms.

 

And the goalposts moves to keep the panic alive.
Why is rate of infection so scary if the vast majority have little or no symptoms? This whole Corona hysteria is pointless and as facts emerge will fizzle away.

 

The media will not interview anyone who had mild symptoms.It does not serve their narrative.

 

Who is moving goalposts? I'm talking about how things have always been, you're the one suggesting a new bit of information suddenly makes everything different. Accuracy and honesty should engender panic. Mixed messages will.

The high infection rate is a legitimate cause for concern because if millions of people get infected, even a 0.1% mortality rate would mean thousands of deaths. Also, a high infection rate is much more difficult to contain and control. That's why such extensive measures are necessary in this case. A virus with a lower infection rate but a higher severity and mortality rate, would, someone ironically, require fewer general restrictions to manage and control. Again, none of this is new information.

 

So you are onboard with ditching the high mortality rate hysteria anyway. At least that.