IISS expert says Russia lacks leverage with Tehran and has "proposed what to the West may seem like a bad deal" and more interesting info about Bushehr nuclear plant as white elephant... http://bit.ly/pJxLM1
to realite and all ::::::::::::: here is something to read and then discuss. ~~~~~~~~~~ Russia is looking to revive the nuclear talks between Iran and world powers under a "step-by-step" approach. What does this mean? How would you assess the plan's chances of success? A “step-by-step” approach is elementary diplomacy. Each side making staged concessions in exchange for equivalent benefits in theory creates confidence to overcome sticking points. How to structure equivalent compromises is no easy task, however. Repeated efforts over the past ten years to find an acceptable step-by-step solution have all failed over the same conundrum: Iran insists on having an enrichment program to give it a weapons capability and the other side wants it to stop. In this case, Russia has proposed what to the West may seem like a bad deal: sanctions would be progressively lifted in exchange for Iran answering IAEA questions, yet Iran would continue to produce enriched uranium for which it currently has no civilian purpose. Some analysts say that Russia's capacity to provide technical help for Iran's nuclear program gives it unmatched leverage, while others argue that Moscow's influence is very limited when it comes to curbing Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions. How do you see this? Russia actually has little leverage with Iran. Russia is not among Iran’s top five trading partners. The countries are not allies and they have little cultural or historical affinity. Nuclear power technology is the only thing Russia sells that Iran can’t get anywhere else, but during the 16 years since Russia took over Bushehr construction (including the many years of delayed completion) I cannot think of a single case when Russia was able to exploit this monopoly for purposes of leverage. What is Bushehr's role in Iran's nuclear program? What would its launch tell us about the advancement of the program? The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is the centerpiece of the peaceful part of Iran’s dual-purpose nuclear program. When it is fully operational, Bushehr’s 1,000 megawatt electrical output will represent about 2% of Iran’s total production of electricity. Economically, it’s a white elephant, but the symbolism is what is important to Iran. It will become the 31st country in the world to produce nuclear power and the first in the Middle East. Iranians will take pride in the accomplishment – even though Bushehr was built by Germans, Russians and Ukrainians and will be operated by Russians for several years. Iranians will also breathe a sigh of relief when, 35 years after the project began, Bushehr is finally up and running. The launch does not say much at all about the rest of Iran’s nuclear program. It demonstrates that yes, there is a peaceful purpose to the nuclear program, but no country denies this. More to the point, Bushehr does not justify the worrisome dual-use aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, particularly the uranium enrichment effort. Iran has no need to enrich uranium for Bushehr since Russia has promised to supply enriched fuel for the lifetime of the reactor and several international initiatives will ensure fuel supply. Is Bushehr a purely peaceful facility as claimed? In theory, if run at low burn-up, the Bushehr reactor could also be used to produce plutonium for perhaps 30 nuclear weapons a year. But no nuclear power plant has ever been used for this purpose, and if Bushehr was misused this way, monitoring by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would quickly blow the whistle. Weapons-usable plutonium could also be harvested from the spent fuel from normal reactor operation. But Russia has contracted to take back the spent fuel when it has cooled enough to be transported, and in any case Iran does not today have the reprocessing technology to be able to separate the plutonium from other waste products. From a proliferation perspective there are other nuclear facilities in Iran that are much more worrisome than Bushehr ~~~~~~~~~~~~ vlad
to realite and all :::::::::::::: this is an article from pravda.ru Russia to sign $5-billion defense contract with Iraq Russia may join the ranks of major importers of weapons to Iraq. During the visit of Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki's, a contract for $5 billion may be signed for the sale of MiG fighter jets, products of Russian Helicopters, anti-aircraft missile systems, armored vehicles and other weapons to the Middle Eastern country. In Soviet times, Baghdad was one of the main buyers of the products of MIC USSR. After the war in the early 1990s, military and technical cooperation between Russia and Iraq was at a very low level. After the second US-Iraq war, Russia began supplying weapons to Iraq in larger volumes. Between 2008 and 2011 the new government in Baghdad purchased Russian weapons worth $246 million dollars. The bulk of the purchase was helicopters. In this same period, the actual deliveries of weapons and military equipment of U.S. production totaled $6.56 billion dollars, according to the director of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade (TSAMTO) Igor Korotchenko. According to the Iraqi News Agency Shafaq, during the visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Moscow scheduled for October 10, new contracts for the supply of arms and military equipment may be signed. Print version Font Size Send to friendIf the deal goes through, Iraq will be among five largest importers of Russian arms. According to the newspaper, contracts will be signed for the supply of the products of the pro RAC "MiG", "Helicopters of Russia, and "Tula "Instrument Design Bureau" in the amount of $4.3 billion dollars. It is assumed that Iraq would sell 30 Mi-28N combat vehicles and 42 anti-aircraft missile and gun complex "Shell-S1." Additionally, there may be new contracts for the supply of MiG-29M/M2, radars, armored vehicles and other weapons. Until now, the main supplier of arms to Iraq was its main occupant - the USA. Baghdad has purchased from the U.S. military-industrial complex M1 tanks, F-16 fighter jets and other weapons for nearly $15 billion. The Americans supplying outdated weapons to Iraq at traditionally high prices - 36 old F-16 for over $5 billion dollars. In addition, Baghdad purchases equipment from the governments of other countries occupying Iraq. Ukraine supplies over $1.5 billion worth of weapons. Last year, Russia has retained the second place in the world in terms of arms exports, selling weapons abroad for 11.3 billion dollars. Most likely, this year the country will also remain in second place with a total export at $13.293 billion, or 19 percent of the world supply. The main volume of shipments accounted for a very small number of countries that have the potential to negatively affect the front-runner position of Russia in the global arms trade. In the next four years, in terms of the signed contracts, the leaders of Russian weapons import will be India, Venezuela, and Vietnam. "First place in the period from 2012 to 2015 in Russia's arms exports will again be taken by India with $14.3 billion dollars. In second place instead of Algeria will be Venezuela with $3.2 billion. Vietnam will be in third place," said Igor Korotchenko to the media based on the improved analytical predictions by TSAMTO. In the fourth place in terms of procurement of military goods from Russia is China with $2.8 billion followed by Syria with $1.6 billion. The share of the top three importers of Russian weapons in the overall balance of supply abroad will be 62.43 percent, the share of the top five - 74.9 percent. The total volume of the Russian arms exports in this period is projected at $32.5 billion dollars. The emergence among the major buyers of Russian military equipment of Baghdad is unlikely, said the director of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade. "Personally, I have serious doubts that Iraq will buy billions dollars' worth of our weapons. They will not be allowed to do it. Iraq's foreign policy is tightly controlled by the U.S., and no matter what they say, that Iraq broke away from America and left to float freely - it is not the case. Of course, there are some contradictions between the administrations in Washington and Baghdad. However, Iraq is tightly attached to the American war machine. In previous years, they purchased solely from the U.S. for the amount of over $6 billion. We sold for under $300 million dollars. The numbers speak for themselves. So I do not expect very large contracts. Even if Iraq wants to buy a large quantity of Russian weapons, America will be opposed to it," said Igor Korotchenko to "Pravda.Ru." During the visit of Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki to Russia other issues in addition to the military contracts will be discussed. During the visit, the parties may sign a number of documents on the Russian-Iraqi inter-industry and investment ties. Relevant programs are being refined by the chambers of commerce of Iraq and Russia. Baghdad expects Russia's direct investment in Iraq at over $10 billion. Vitaly Salnik ~~~~ vlad
