Fact Check: Hurricanes Are Not Strengthened by Our CO2 Emissions

That's one of your favorite lies, that AGW theory predicts more hurricanes. Let's see what AR5 says (from 2014).

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/SREX-Chap3_FINAL-1.pdf
Page 161
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Based on a variety of model simulations, the expected long-term changes in global tropical cyclone characteristics under greenhouse warming is a decrease or little change in frequency concurrent with an increase in mean intensity.
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This is the part where you scream insults at me. Please proceed. What other choice do you have? It's not like you can defend your lie, so you have to deflect somehow.

 

Well, no. And you'll do better with a citation newer than 2008.



Figure: Last 50-years+ of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.

Global Tropical Cyclone Activity | Ryan Maue
https://climatlas.com › tropical

by RN Maue — Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40-years.

 

Atlantic Hurricane Season is almost over. We are at Hurricane Ian. We may get a "J" storm. In years past, we have moved into the Greek alphabet, which means we went through all the set named storms, and went to the next set.

Hurricane season isn't related to anything man does. I'm married to one of the country's hurricane experts. This AGW claim is bunk. The atmosphere has no memory.

 

Interesting that it speaks of wind shear. It makes me wonder if windmills across the world could reduce the wind shear strengths

 

LOL, your paper is now 14 years old!

Water surface temperature is already well above the minimum temperature needed for tropical storms to develop and has been for centuries and more thus from July to December it is warm enough north of the Tropics and ALL 12 months in the Tropical region itself.



LINK

Meanwhile what has happened since 2008?

From post 32 you ignored:



Nothing to get excited over.

You got plenty of tropical and hurricane stats to read through my thread and you ignored all of them that is poor of you.

 

I'll confirm


https://michaelshellenberger.substa...es?r=kv13y&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

My buddies and I were at the watering hole, on the waterfront in prime hurricane coastline, the other day before Ian hit with the reporting on one of the TV's and they had reporters with this hysteria and we were all scratching our heads all being retired guys about these claims things are so much worse now and storms so much worse. Worst I ever went through was Camille then Ivan then Katrina. Fredrick hit when I was in Louisiana but my family was hit bad by that one.

One guy looked out at the causeway that runs by and noted "isn't that supposed to be underwater now according to Al Gore and John Kerry our two most renowned "climate experts"

 

The hurricane hypesters are in full cry.

Hurricane Hype, Lies, Censorship – and Reality
Guest Blogger
Politicized hurricane and climate science breeds distrust, green energy and economic disasters Paul Driessen Hurricane Ian is in the history books, having unleashed its Category 4 fury on southwestern Florida.…

 

Can we at least count the bodies and clean the rubble before we go back to pretending hurricanes are a non-issue.

 

LOL, another dishonest post shows up since no one here can possibly ignore the devastation tropical storms and hurricanes generates and that no one here in the forum belittles such evidence thereof.

Why don't you address why warmist/alarmists chronically lies about Hurricanes instead the way others are doing in this thread?

 

Hmmm. It's the alarmist climateers who politicized hurricanes.

 

Why? I don't speak for them. Are they lying? I don't know, but Cat 4/5 storms sure seem more common these days. Irma, Maria, Ian, Michael were all Cat 4-5 and all happened in just past few years and just in my back-yard. You can argue your political arguments all day long, but I got eyes and ears so I can see what is going on.

The OP is alarmist climateer?

 

NO, it isn't a lie is a fact I posted that YOU ignored and that your dishonest strawman claim was easy to spot.

From the article you ignored at POST 43:

Six years ago the Washington Post was terrified by the record lack of hurricanes in Florida and the US.

“A major hurricane hasn’t hit the U.S. Gulf or East Coast in more than a decade. A major hurricane is one containing maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph and classified as Category 3 or higher on the 1-5 Saffir-Simpson wind scale.”

“Florida hasn’t seen a hurricane of any intensity since 2005’s Wilma, which is shocking considering it averages about seven hurricane landfalls per decade. The current drought in the Sunshine State, nearing 11 years, is almost twice as long as the previous longest drought of six years (from 1979-1985).”



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Further in the article you will continue to ignore:



You going to call the WAPO a liar?

LOL

 

No, they are not. Only the hype is more common.




Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL.

 

You are the one who claimed without evidence that people here are saying that, "pretending hurricanes are a non-issue." thus you started badly and now you make another unsupported claim which has already been addressed several times in this thread with articles that tells us what is going on.

Suggest that you start reading from post one onward.

 

Pro-line-fl writes

It is clear you didn't read the article or know who Dr. Khandekar is:

Dr. Madhav Khandekar is a former Research Scientist with Environment Canada and has been working in weather and climate science for about 60 years. He was an Expert Reviewer for the 2007 climate change documents prepared by the UN climate body.

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Meanwhile you didn't address the content of the OP.

Ignorance is no excuse.

 

How many threads have we had to down play the issue, and you just opened another one.

Some people are concerned about it, while others argue against it saying there is no change when the wind is howling 160mph outside their window.

Cool beans. He is entitled to his views.

IMO we are getting into a warmer cycle, which can happen naturally, so I am not interested in arguing about the politics of it.

 

No one here is trying to downplay the damage of the storms it is a reaction to the media, warmist/alarmists and politicians who distort, misrepresent or LIE about them.

You have been shown the official data several times here and in other threads and you do what Mamooth and others do is IGNORE them.

It is clear you have no argument to offer just complain about postings and ignore the evidence presented.

Why are you posting here?

 

Maybe CO2 only mingles in North America?

 

10 out of 15 of the most active storm seasons have been since 2000, so your 'evidence' is what it is. I also mentioned the devastating Cat 4-5 storms we have seen in a vary short period of time, so please spare me from "nothing going on out there".

Has there been major hurricanes in the past? Sure. No one said there hasn't, but recently we have been hit my a ton of them.

Rank Year Number of Storms
1. 2005 28
2. 1933 20
3. 2012 19
4. 2011 19
5. 2010 19
6. 1995 19
7. 1887 19
8. 1969 18
9. 2008 16
10. 2003 16
11. 1936 16
12. 2007 15
13. 2004 15
14. 2001 15
15. 2000 15

 

Haw haw haw you feel the need to make a blatant falsehood since again you never quote anything from the thread to support it:

No one here has said that which means you INVENTED IT!

This has been addressed many times already because what YOU presented is a distortion since you apparently ignored the well-known among Hurricane specialists that only since the 1970's have, we developed full coverage of storm developments.

POST 4 (Jack) already showed that year 2020 was unusually active:

Joe D’Aleo CCM, Weatherbell.com

The 2020 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin is the most active in history with 30 named storms, breaking the previous record set in 2005 (which had 2. 6 storms were major storms including Iota, setting a record for the latest Major hurricane.

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Here are the following posts you have ignored that utterly destroys your misleading narrative

POST 6 (Jack) you never read talks about a change in how storms are named:

To Name or Not to Name? That Is the Question

The decision to name or unname this type of systems is very subjective, since we do not have an objective way to measure the contribution of each energy source. That is why forecasters in the past have been reluctant to name baroclinic-initiated storms.

Forecasters were faced with this decision four times in 2020, and each time they chose to name the system: Dolly, Edward, Kyle, and Omar. All four started out as baroclinic disturbances along dissipating cold fronts and then morphed into tropical storms under the influence of heat from thunderstorms. But following a very short tropical life of less than 24 to 36 hours, re-examination revealed that baroclinic energy once again dominated, and they were reclassified as post-tropical remnant lows (winter-type storms). This year we even named a baroclinic storm approaching Europe—Alpha was named a few hours before making landfall in Portugal.

Would these storms have received a name 30 or 40 years ago? Probably not, and data show this to be true.

The historical record of baroclinic-initiated tropical storms in the subtropical Atlantic north of latitude 25N for the past 75 years also reveals a recent trend to name more storms of this type. If we divide the 75 years into three 25-year periods, the first (1946–1970) is pre-satellite. Satellite pictures did not become available to operational forecasters until the late 1960s. This left us unable to observe storms in vast stretches of the Atlantic. During this time, under one storm per year (0.7/yr.) could be traced back to a baroclinic origin.

Satellite pictures were available during the second 25-year period (1971–1995), allowing us, for the first time, to detect storms in those vast stretches, which explains why there was a slight increase in the number of baroclinic systems, to 1.7 per year.

A big surprise occurred in the years 1996–2020, when there was an unexpected jump to 4 per year. A big part of the increase took place during the last decade, when the number increased to 5 per year.

Another study confirms this trend. During the 1970s and 1980s, over 50% of all named storms in the Atlantic were initiated by African systems. Another 10–15% were generated by disturbances on the ITC. It is not surprising to find that almost 70% of all named storms in the Atlantic trace their origin to weather disturbances whose origin was in the deep tropics. Fewer than 30% of Atlantic named storms originated as baroclinic systems (~15% by stalled cold fronts, and ~15% by upper–level lows).

Similar statistics for the last decade (2011–2020) show a significant increase in the number of baroclinic systems being named. Currently, 45% of named storms are caused by baroclinic systems, while the other 55% come from tropical disturbances.

The numbers for 2020 confirm the trend to name baroclinic disturbances. Thirteen of the 30 storms had a baroclinic origin, and 10 of those occurred in the subtropical Atlantic.

red bolding mine

Heading off on your expected Prejudice this was written by Dr. Frank,

Neil L. Frank, Ph.D., Meteorology, was the longest-serving Director of the National Hurricane Center (1974–1987) before becoming Chief Meteorologist of KHOU-TV, Houston, TX, until his retirement in 2008, since when he has continued his research on hurricanes independently.

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Post 7 (Jack)

Global Hurricane Activity Below Average In 2020

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Post 9 (Jack)

U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes Trend Down in 2020 – Despite Claims of ‘Record-Breaking’ Season

Post 11 (Jack)

Record Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Reliable data for the Atlantic, both number of storms and ACE, is only available since the era of satellites in 1966, as NOAA explain:



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Post 17 (Jack)

Increasing Hurricane Frequency Due To Better Observation, Not Climate Change–BBC

“Many of these storms are short-lived systems that are now being identified because of better monitoring and policy changes that now name sub-tropical storms,” Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist at the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) told BBC Weather.

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On and On I can go here and kudos to Jack for posting many articles to cover them.

You display a limited understanding, and you supposedly live in Florida!!!

LOL

 

Yea....Haw haw haw...... Sheesh.

How convenient. LOL

10 out of 15 most active storm seasons have been after 2000, and yes, we have been keeping track of them for some time now.

That's right. You? Alaska?

 

What issue should they be, are going to legislate them away? Should we make them do more harm to whites and less to people of color?

 

Look at the charts, they may seem more frequent but only because we had a TWELVE YEAR LULL.

 

And did he eat his hat after that failed prediction? We had a TWELVE YEAR LULL.

 

You fell flat on your face since you didn't contest anything which means you have no counter argument at all.

Why continue when you make up things and avoid details completely?

Hurricane Ian has killed 35 people so far while the worst Florida hurricanes killed far more in a state that had 1/10 the people in population in the early days.

Now from the MIAMI Herald you will likely ignore since that requires effort:

Which Florida hurricane was the most deadly? What to know about storms that kill

BY HOWARD COHEN

UPDATED SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

Excerpt:

Florida’s 1928 Okeechobee hurricane is the state’s deadliest so far, second in the nation only to the 1900 Galveston storm. The 1928 hurricane’s official death toll was 1,836, but local officials estimated it was closer to 3,000, NOAA reported.

and,

Atlantic-Gulf Hurricane 1919. This hurricane moved into the Straits of Florida on Sept. 9, 1919. As a Category 4, its eye passed just south of Key West and the Dry Tortugas on Sept. 10. Death toll was estimated at 600 to 900 people but how many were from Florida is not certain because more than 500 were lost on 10 ships that either sunk or were reported missing, according to NOAA.

and,

Greater Miami Hurricane 1926. The Category 4 hurricane’s eye moved directly over Miami Beach and downtown Miami during the morning hours of Sept. 18, 1926. A storm surge of nearly 15 feet was reported in Coconut Grove and many of the people who were killed or injured had ventured outside during the lull of the storm when the eye was passing. The town of Moore Haven on the south side of Lake Okeechobee lost hundreds of people due to a storm surge. The 1926 hurricane also traveled to Pensacola on Sept. 20. “With a highly transient population across southeastern Florida during the 1920s, the death toll is uncertain since more than 800 people were missing in the aftermath of the cyclone,” NOAA said, noting that a Red Cross report lists 373 deaths.

The rest of them in the LINK

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The top SEVEN biggest Hurricane killers occurred before 1992 and FIVE of them 1960 and earlier....

I seem to have a habit of exposing your ignorance on this despite that you.... live.... there....., LOL.