Former Obama WH Economist: Unemployment Wont Drop Below 8% Before End of 2012 The White House economic adviser who determined in 2009 that if President Barack Obama's stimulus bill were passed unemployment would not go above 8 percent, now says he was wrong and that he does not think unemployment will go below 8 percent before the end of 2012--the last year of the four-year term Obama won in 2008. Jared Bernstein, the former chief economist and economic advisor to Vice President Joe Biden, wrote a report along with Christina Romer, the chairwoman of President Barack Obamas Council of Economic Advisors, in January 2009 predicting that the stimulus would keep unemployment at less than 8 percent. On Monday, Bernstein told CNSNews.com that his projection was flawed. When asked by CNSNews.com whether unemployment would fall below 8 percent before the end of 2012, Bernstein said, Unlikely that it would go below 8 percent before the end of 2012. I think the most optimistic forecast would be for about eight-and-a-half percent. On page four of the 2009 Romer/Bernstein report a chart states that the unemployment rate nationwide with the $821-billion economic stimulus package would peak at 8 percent. Below the chart, the report says, First, the likely scale of employment loss is extremely large. The U.S. economy has already lost nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007. In the absence of stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential total job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan, reads the report. President Barack Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the economic stimulus, in February 2009. The current unemployment rate is 9.1 percent. Since June 2009, unemployment has been 9 percent or higher in every month except for two. The administration, and most other economists at the time the Bernstein/Romer report was released, just had bad information for making projections about employment, Bernstein said. Look, we made that projection back in 2008 at a time when the most recent information about the economy was that it was contracting at a rate of less than 1 percent, Bernstein said. At the time, we simply didnt have good information. We now know with revised data that in the very quarter where we made that wrong projection, the economy was contracting at almost 9 percent. So the statistics were way off at the time, Bernstein continued. Its also the case that that forecast that we gave back then was the consensus forecast of the economics community. I mean, it wasnt just that we were wrong. Everyone was wrong. And I think its largely because we just didnt have a clear picture yet of how bad this recession actually was going to be. http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/economist-who-said-unemployment-wouldn-t The revised numbers paint an ugly picture for the American people. In short, Obama will never keep his promises of job growth. He must go. _
It sure does. Don't you even read the garbage you post? And as factcheck.org shows, it's a Republican lie.
"Determined" is a lie as well. The administration "determined" that unemployment with the stimulus would be lower than without it, which the nonpartisan CBO determined was exactly what happened, as indicated by factcheck.org.
BS! Listen to the man himself: [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jeaECaXAQs"]Former Obama WH Economist: Unemployment Won't Drop Below 8% Before End of 2012 - YouTube[/ame] _
What you're not getting is that the baseline projection was not his. Odd how none of that is in your silly cnsnews story. Or this part:
None of it matters. The bottom line is unless Jobs and the economy are SUBSTANTIALLY better by Nov 2012, the Democrats are going to get clobbered like 2010. No amount of spinning or finger pointing can change that.
Please don't say that, I love watching gmb getting dizzy from all the spin. Bub bye Obama, you're fired!!!!!
BS! He agreed with CNS's view on video tape. He had every opportunity to correct them, and he certainly did not. It was his report. Factcheck.org is biased BTW. They are run by retread mainstream media journalists. _
I'm only moderately amused by those who's predictions amount to nothing more than brainless partisan cheerleading. Prof. Peabody, 2008: http://www.politicalforum.com/elect...-poll-numbers-history-repeating-itself-2.html
Yawwwn... Prof. Peabody, Sept. 2008 http://www.politicalforum.com/elections-campaigns/46879-could-gop-end-its-40-year-reign.html
Ya can't win 'em all however my predicting ability has gotten much better. I predicted the Democrats would lose 65 seats in the House in 2010, I missed the mark by 2. LOLOLOLOLOL! Your too funny!
Please post a link to the correction where he corrected the numbers predicted by his economic team! All I remember is him saying things were worse than they thought.
