Goldman Sachs Stunner: US Unemployment to Peak at 25% Read Newsmax: Goldman Sachs Now Sees U.S. Job

These companies pay millions to get their forecasts right and yet they missed horribly in April. The good news is that they believe the recovery will be faster. Why they would think that after missing so badly in April is beyond me, but if no one is investing they can't make a buck;

"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists revised their forecasts to reflect a gloomier outlook for the U.S. labor market, though also the potential for a faster recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Analysts David Mericle and Ronnie Walker estimate that the unemployment rate will peak at 25%, up from a previous forecast of 15%, as “more workers will lose their jobs and a larger share of them will be classified as unemployed,” according to a research note late Tuesday. The rate would then remain near 10% at year-end, near the highs of the last recession, they wrote."


Read Newsmax: Goldman Sachs Now Sees U.S. Jobless Rate Peaking at 25%, Not 15% | Newsmax.com

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/goldman-sachs-jobless-rate/2020/05/13/id/967313/

 

Are these the same clowns that told me to sell all my stock Tuesday night on the election?

 

Bush jr took Clinton's surplus economy and squandered it on invading countries. He left the US in a financial meltdown and it took Obama to fix the economy.
Now we got trump, who inherited Obama's growing economy and squandered it with his incompetent response to the pandemic and his crony economics.
We are again faced with another repub potus crashing the economy and we are going to need another democrat to fix things again.

 

Forecasts are great. Too bad the highest paid fund managers cannot outperform a chimp with a Sharpie. It is a good time to buy.

 

Maybe the Democrats can fix it like they did California!

 

I follow Tepper. He is as smart as a whip and he has a long history you can view, so this was interesting news to me;

"(Bloomberg) -- The biggest names in finance are coming around to a view that seemed unlikely a few weeks ago: Stocks are vastly overvalued.Legendary investors Stan Druckenmiller and David Tepper were the latest to weigh in after a historic market rebound, saying the risk-reward of holding shares is the worst they’ve encountered in years. Druckenmiller on Tuesday called a V-shaped recovery -- the idea the economy will quickly snap back as the coronavirus pandemic eases -- a “fantasy.” Tepper said Wednesday that next to 1999, equities are overvalued the most he’s ever seen."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-heavyweights-sounding-alarm-223330724.html

For those of you not old enough to remember the '99 crash here is a refresher;

"Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%, only to fall 78% from its peak by October 2002, giving up all its gains during the bubble."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

The day Trump was sworn in,

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined 0.4%, to close at 19,732.40."
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/246257/stock-market-news-for-january-20-2017

So that's our low bar. If we get there again God help us.

 

That 25% are consumers I’m not quite grasping the quick recovery notion. If we handled things differently maybe, but we didn’t. Unfortunately this punch did more than stagger us and will likely drag into next year and definitely much longer for some.

 

Bad news for sure.

Trump FAILED to act (early enough), and things in the economy got Worse.

I also feel like this part is overly optimistic:

The rate would then remain near 10% at year-end

I don't foresee any numbers anywhere near that.

It would be a miracle if the Unemployment Rate was only 15%.

I really doubt if we'll see 10%.

The Virus is going to be here for a long time.

It would be a miracle if America could salvage next year's summer season.

 

The "depression" "recession" "economic downturn" was not a financial problem but a health hazard. People have been locked up not able to spend money like normal and after phase 3 the flood gates will be open most likely within the month. Most people that lost their jobs were furloughed and will be returning to work asap. I'd say a good guess would be unemployment cutting in half from phase 1 to phase 3 being implemented fully and getting drastically better every month.

 

I disagree.

There is no way of knowing (or even speculating) on when people will be going back to work, whether it be phase 3 or phase 23.

It would surprise me if even 1/2 of the people who lost jobs were back by August 1st.

 

Supported in that by Hillary, Biden and John Kerry.

Bunk, the Democrat created housing crises let to that problem, Obama's 'recovery' was pathetic and in spite of him, not because of him.

Wait, I thought this was the Obama economy?

What a fantasy world you live in.

 

Pandemic, did you wake thinking that was a dream or thought not mentioning it would make your post less ridiculous

 

You say there is no way of even speculating when people go back to work then you speculate.

Most jobs lost do to the virus are coming back. They will come back quickly too. My guess would be as soon as restrictions are lifted about 2 weeks will pass and it will be like the flood gates opened because people have been held back for so long.

 

Oh snap

 

And Illinois. Texas has much to learn from IL, NY and CA.

/Sarcasm off

 

While I am not a fan of Trump, he is better for business because he is less of a thief than the Dems. It may not be a perfect V shape, but recovery is expected. If it takes longer, I don't have to sell anything for 15-20 years anyway. Ray Dalio's all season portfolio strategy kept me ahead.

 

I would love to see that happen, and everyone get back to work.

Still, if the virus is still a threat, how are people going to feel safe in their workplaces?

Also, if schools (in some states) don't open in the Fall (how are all of these people going to go back to work without day care)?

 

You make some valid points. The virus has been bad. I see human nature as a flood gate opening as soon as things open. There is such a large group of people that don't care about the virus or distancing partaking precautions past washing hands and they will be back at it asap. Company I work for had 500 employees file for unemployment and all but 12 are coming back. Most of the 12 left and got other jobs. Some where permanently laid off but that means upper 400's are coming back and only q few were let go. I dont see unemployment going back to january levels in 2 months but my guess would be that unemployment drops drastically because this economic problem we are facing is do to a virus not a financial issue.

 

Good points, S32.

I would LOVE to see the economy re-open and everybody get back to work.

At this time, I just don't see a real endgame to where a mass "floodgate" sort of reopening is feasible.

 

Its definitely possible it doesnt happen. It is just a guess on my end because this isnt a financial issue it's a bio hazard.

 

Well S32, count me among those who would love to see the best case scenario for an economic rebound (as long as it can be accomplished safely).

 

trump will be the third Republican in a row to enter with a growing economy and exit with one in decline.
Seems to be a trend...

 

Another one that's doesn't see the Pandemic as a cause

 

Yah, no one could have prepared in any way at all.

 

I would like all of america to feel like that. Glad most do. I understand safety is a concern but I wish the government didnt do what it did at the federal and state levels. I'm no lawyer but the from what I can read it was an overreach of power. Martial law should have been put into effect or it should of stayed at an optional level. Hopefully for those who fear the worst will have a safe way to enter society.