Herd immunity from sanity

There is nothing wrong with the tests (now). What else would you use?

Where do you live? Maybe we can figure it out.

Even with their "explosion" the Germans, for example, still have not reached where we were at our best.
But your right, if it gets into the wild, so to speak, it gets very hard to contain.

I use these to validate China status.

After a string of temporary closings since late January, Starbucks Coffee Co has reopened 90 percent of its stores in China. Its China headquarters and Starbucks Reserve Roastery in Shanghai, Farmer Support Center in Yunnan province and regional support centers have resumed operations.

The company is expected to open about 95 percent of its China stores by the end of the second quarter, according to a note from Kevin Johnson, president and CEO, to shareholders on Thursday.

Fast food chain McDonald's has also reopened 90 percent of its more than 3,300 restaurants in the country, following its rollout of group delivery services to enterprises that have resumed work since Feb 10.

 

They are what we have now. I’ve pointed out their failings. What’s wrong with them is that they stink at determining if someone has C19 or not. That’s kind of a big deal. But I’m not criticizing the tests. I’m criticizing the lies that have been told about them and the lack of transparency that allows the public to believe things about them that aren’t true

Nebraska. In June we were seeing 100-200 confirmed cases per day. We had about 200 state employees working contact tracing plus volunteers from UNMC.
https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2020/20_0269.htm
We had also hired private third party contractors to help.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...tner-for-the-state-of-nebraska-301062816.html

Furthermore, as of mid July we still had 13% of Nebraska counties with zero cases. And many more counties with just a handful of cases. Contact tracing should have been simple and effective.

I went back and checked test turnaround times. At one point our department of health was claiming 24 hour times but the actual data shows more like a touch over two days. I apologize for not double checking before claiming 24 hours in a previous post. They say 24 hours is still the goal but I don’t think it will happen at this point.

So with the equivalent of at least one contact tracer for each confirmed case, we’ve gone from less than 200 cases per day in May/June to 1000 per day now with more testing and more tracing resources.

Friday we had 305 new cases per million in the US. Germany had 231 new cases per million. They have mask mandates with fines. Testing and tracing is not working in Germany. Nothing is.

I like that. It’s good evidence things are under control. But it doesn’t give us true death numbers or infection numbers in the past. Nor does it tell us if testing solved their problem or if it was the ability of an authoritarian government to restrict travel, mandate quarantine of anyone they saw fit, etc. Based on test numbers it’s the latter not the former that’s responsible.

 

I always look at percent positives.
It doesn't look like Nebraska ever got under 7% before they relaxed restrictions.
I'm not sure anyone has been able to reopen like Nebraska did with 7% positives.
The problem now is that it's all over the state. There's gonna be some pain.
Edit:
It's interesting to watch it go from one little town to the next up and down the rivers..

 

Yeh, we didn’t do anything quite like everyone else. No stay at home orders. After “reopening” most things we went down to 4% positives before creeping back up. It happens to everyone eventually and you can’t keep states that feed the world shut down forever.

Cases will likely begin to decrease substantially in a week or so. I’m confident our case fatality rate will remain comparatively low as well. It’s fascinating how less populous states stayed so low in infections for so long and then explode. I would have guessed there would be a delay compared to states like Texas and New York, but not this long of a delay.

Where did you find that map? It looks interesting. The virus has to spread along the rivers in Nebraska. It’s the only places there are any people!

 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/60faff4428484d55b62b8277fe382406

I like this one too.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/map/nebraska

 

Thanks. I’ve been using the CNN one a lot, but these have different useful features.