HHS estimates coronavirus mortality rate at 0.1%-1%

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by excalibur26, Mar 6, 2020.

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  1. excalibur26

    excalibur26 Newly Registered

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    These numbers are far lower than for SARS or MERS.




    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1235956761015783427

    ADM Brett P. Giroir, M.D., a four-star admiral in the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps and Assistant Secretary for Health at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), reported today that the mortality rate of the coronavirus is likely between 0.1% and 1%. That would put it somewhere between being comparable to the flu and up to six times more lethal, but nowhere near the mortality rate that’s been reported thus far.

    The reason it is now believed by medical professionals who are examining the data that the mortality rate is lower than reported is because there are likely many more people infected than what’s publicly known. The disease is turning out to be so mild in some that they do not display symptoms before their body beats it. Others get mildly ill and do not go to the doctor at all.

    With as much hype as has been given to the coronavirus, it’s fortunate that it’s not nearly as life-threatening in the United States as it seemed to be in China. Then again, it’s also possible that China is either under-reporting or simply unaware of how many people are actually infected. Disinformation is a tool often used by the Chinese Communist Party, and while it’s harder for them to cover up deaths, it’s not hard at all to cover up infection numbers. It’s possible that millions are infected in China but only thousands are reported to have died from the disease.



    https://noqreport.com/2020/03/06/pr...stimates-coronavirus-mortality-rate-at-0-1-1/
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2020
  2. excalibur26

    excalibur26 Newly Registered

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    Also:

    COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates​

    I suggested that if we took unreported mild cases into account, the actual death rate among infected people outside China may be as low as 0.5%. Skeptics greeted death rates of 0.5–1.0% as Panglossian heresy. Yet the rigorous February 10 study I cited, from Imperial College London, concluded the global infection fatality ratio was about 1.0. My estimate is lower than 1.0 because I exclude China where (I argue) high fatality rates in Wuhan were exaggerated by overcounting institutionalized elderly with serious infection.

    On February 29, Denise Grady, The New York Times’ veteran health and medicine reporter, independently came to conclusions not unlike those Katarina Zimmer and I did within a few days of each other – namely than fewer than 1% of people infected with COVID-19 are likely to die from it, and that the odds of death are lower that that for healthy non‐elderly people. Ms. Grady explained these facts in The New York Times as follows [with emphasis added]:

    “Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from China, the epicenter of the outbreak, have been around 2 percent. But a new report on 1,099 cases from many parts of China, published on Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine, finds a lower rate: 1.4 percent. The coronavirus death rate may be even lower, if — as most experts suspectthere are many mild or symptom‐free cases that have not been detected. The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”

    ...

    On March 4, The New York Times reported, “Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organization’s director general, said in a news conference in Geneva that… ‘Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid‐19 cases have died.” “By comparison,” he added, ” seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected.”

    To the newspaper’s credit, The New York Times apparently felt obliged to caution readers that the WHO’s 3.4 percent death rate is quite implausible, if not wildly inaccurate: “The figure does not include mild cases that do not require medical attention and is skewed by Wuhan, where the death rate is several times higher than elsewhere in China. It is also quite possible that there are many undetected cases that would push the mortality rate lower. Still, it was the first time that the organization had offered a global mortality rate for the disease.”



    https://www.cato.org/blog/covid-19-deaths-incredible-who-estimates
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2020
  3. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    Ah much ado about nothing
     
  4. excalibur26

    excalibur26 Newly Registered

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    Sadly, it was whipped up by the 'Orange Man Bad' crowd. Disgusting Dims and MSM.
     
  5. Rush_is_Right

    Rush_is_Right Well-Known Member

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    A hyperactive news story to bring Trump to his knees. Sadly I think he has knelt.
     
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  6. Pred

    Pred Well-Known Member

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    Right now the only people dying seem to be old and already sick. As an ordinary healthy person, you’ll sooner die from a car accident or slipping on ice.
     
  7. waltky

    waltky Well-Known Member

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    Granny says, "Dat's right...

    ... we all gonna die...

    ... just a lil' slower dan usual!"
     
  8. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    Nahhhh, it can't be. The news (media arm of the DNC) presents it like we are supposed to set ourselves on fire scream at the top of our lungs for hours at the sky.
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2020
  9. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Influenza this year is estimated to have a mortality rate of 0.095, and this is a mild year for flu.
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2020
  10. edthecynic

    edthecynic Well-Known Member

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    According to Tramp's OWN numbers the USA has 149 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 14 deaths for a USA death rate of 9+%
     
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  11. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    But but but....I thought we was all was gonna die....damn it....guess I should not have told my boss to shove it !
     
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  12. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    "The reason it is now believed by medical professionals who are examining the data that the mortality rate is lower than reported is because there are likely many more people infected than what’s publicly known. The disease is turning out to be so mild in some that they do not display symptoms before their body beats it. Others get mildly ill and do not go to the doctor at all."
     
  13. edthecynic

    edthecynic Well-Known Member

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    Thank you for inadvertently admitting that Tramp lied about the total number of USA COVID-19 cases!
    But since the Right claims Tramp never lies then the USA death rate has to be 9+%
     
  14. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    This disease is a serious issue, even if the death rate is only 1%. it was a major worldwide story before it even hit the US. You and other GOP supporters are doing precisely what you accuse Democrats of doing - politicising the disease. You don't have to do it, you are choosing to. You can also choose not to, and in doing so rejoin the human race. Up to you.
     
  15. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    Getting down into the gutter with Republicans is not the way to go here. Let them politicise this as they did with Ebola and let people see what filth they are. Imitating their behaviour just puts you in the same gutter. Not a place you should choose to be.
     
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  16. Idahojunebug77

    Idahojunebug77 Well-Known Member

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    Yes and no. I am much less concerned about the virus than a month ago, I despise being sick, I will continue to follow my flu season protocol.
     
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  17. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

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    We know what the mortality rate is right now in an advanced country that's doing lots of testing, has locked everything down, and has a state-of-the-art healthcare system: S. Korea. They've tested over 140,000 people, have 6,300 cases, and 42 deaths. That's a mortality rate of .06, which would make it about six times more lethal than the normal flu. There's probably some cases they missed and some earlier deaths they haven't identified yet, and some people that will soon die. I bet it ends up being half a percent to 1%.

    That's bad, but that's not the real problem. The real problem is that for about 14% of people, this just knocks you on your ass and you need some basic medical care. For 6% of people, you end up in critical condition and need an ICU. We know these rates from a WHO study that looked at 50,000 Chinese that had tested positive.

    But let's say those numbers are off by a factor of five, so 3% get a severe case and 1% end up critical. That cuts both ways. That would mean that this is five times more contagious than we think. You're not talking about something like the cold or flu anymore, you're talking more like Mumps and Measles, which are HIGHLY contagious. Which means a HUGE number of Americans are going to get it.

    In an average flu season, 30 million people get infected. If this thing is much worse than the flu, and 50 million people get it, you're talking 1.5 million with a severe case and 500,000 in intensive care. That would simply overwhelm the system. And that's lowballing it. If this thing is super-contagious, to the point that we're underestimating the contagion level by a factor of five, you're probably looking at 100 million Americans coming down with it.

    The point is, we have enough data from China, Italy, Japan, and S. Korea to know that, if we don't delay the spread (containment is impossible now), it's going to hit in one big wave and overwhelm everything. That's why countries are freaking out about it. It's not the flu, it's SARS. That's a whole nother thing.
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2020
  18. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    When you try to calculate a mortality rate with an unknown number of asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic patients who think they have a cold or the flu you are going to get an inaccurate figure.

    Add to that the fact that many documented cases were of the elderly and those with chronic comorbidities and you will get an inaccurate and artificially high figure.
     
  19. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Decimals...how do they work?


    That compares with a mortality rate of 0.095% for the flu in the U.S., according to CDC estimates for the 2019-2020 flu season.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the...cross-us-as-world-frets-over-coronavirus.html
     
  20. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    100,000 cases worldwide.

    Virus has been in the US for 7 weeks now, less than 300 cases

    And your calling it at 100,000,000 cases in the US....

    You and Brain William sit next to each other in math?
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2020
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  21. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

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    Also, we know this thing can kill ten people in one nursing home. There are 15,000 nursing homes in this country.
     
  22. Idahojunebug77

    Idahojunebug77 Well-Known Member

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    What? We all know only what the evidence reveals to be fact (or close to it).. when the evidence from the medical community indicated that more than half of the people testing positive to COVID-19 had no symptoms it changed the narrative. This is what Trump was telling us in his interview with Hannity.
     
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  23. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    All of the ranges of different mortality rates estimated at different points during the COVID-19 outbreak have been lower than those for SARS or MERS. That isn't news.

    The quoted mortality rates for these conditions have always been based on confirmed infections and confirmed deaths. That has varied between 2%-4% as different data became available. There have also been rough estimates of overall mortality rate but that has to be based on essentially guesses of the total infection rate in all the different places it has hit. Again, that has long been predicted to be something around 1%.

    Seasonal flu has a similar issue in determining that actual infection rate, which is a major reason there is also a significant range in estimates of it's mortality rate, from 0.1% up to 0.2%.

    It's also worth noting that if you're adjusting the mortality rate because you're identifying more infections, you're still talking about the same number of people dying. We'd just have more disruption from people suffering non-fatal symptoms too.
     
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  24. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    You love to save healthcare dollars, no?
     
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  25. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    Ouch...
     
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