How Will the Russians Rebuild Their Military?

Yellen was talking stagflation the other day, and I agree.

That's a recession. Recessions come in different flavors, from mild to ugly, I expect ours to be about a 6 on a 1 to 20 scale.

Part of the world will go into Depression, but a number of countries will skate by with just a severe recession. There are too many variables for me to get this specific, but it's not a bad guess. Developed countries usually have options.

 

That's not a lot of territory, and it's paying Manhattan prices for Nebraska dirt.

 

The difference is that it's not for sale at any price. There is only one way to take it, and they did.

 

If Russia collapses, they won't be able to keep it.

But the bottom line is they were roughly the 13th largest economy. My opinion is they are headed for about 20th, give or take.

This ends the era where Russia is big and bad. In the 1800s, historians called Russia "The Sick Man of Europe". I expect they will be saying that again.

 

People get hysterical and think a war with Russia would be 'WW III N Stuff!' when it would be even shorter than the Gulf War, and 90% of Russia would switch sides in a heartbeat if Europe got involved. They will probably take out Putin themselves; too many gangsters losing money for him to stay around.

 

Well I don't think the Ukrainians are going to be able to kick the Russians back across the border.

 

The Russians can't do anything with what they've taken already; the areas they've taken have become wastelands, with 30% of the GDP equivalents they had before the invasions in 2014, and essentially abandoned even by the 'local' Russians. No reason to expect any better from the parts they own now, nor is it a given they can hold them. It's not like the Russians' 'economy' can start up some 'Marshal Plan' to re-invest in what they blew up or anything.

 

Fortunately Ukraine prepared for the next one...rather well as it happens.

 

Russia is going to do what it did after the first Checehen War & the Georgian War - half arse it.

The problem is fairly simple: Russia is trying to maintain a military that can compete with NATO or China with an economy a bit bigger than Australia (well, it was. Not any more). Lots of expensive aircraft, ships & subs to maintain along with hundreds of missiles & thousands of warheads. Now Russia has to replace a lot of aircraft, tanks, IFVs, trucks, artillery etc. while still maintaining those other forces. Something has to give.

I suspect Russian pride will prevent it doing large scale replacement from China, which likely has enough surplus kit to rapidly restore numbers of some vehicles. Maybe stuff like trucks, but not frontline kit. That pride will also mean too much money on the sort of stuff that rolls through Red Square & not enough on boring stuff like trucks, good ammo storage etc. This will again be a military that can stage limited operations like those in Syria, but falls apart if anything larger is involved.

Oh, and don't expect any spectacular changes to the way doctrine, officer training etc. works. That too will be half arsed.

Even the changes that do take place will take time due to lack of money. While dictatorships can overspend on military to the detriment of society to a point, this too has limits. Putin has a lot of people to bribe & less money to do it. the real question here will be how steep Russia's decline will be.

 

Maybe not....what're they gonna do with what territory they currently occupy....not much.

It'll turn into some poverty ridden en/exclave like Abkazia or South Ossetia....with a vicious guerilla war.

 

Well keep hope alive.

 

In reality, only for about a decade.

Look no farther than China to see that. The Tiananmen Square Protests and massacre was in 1989, and it crippled their economy for years. But by 2000 everybody had pretty much forgotten it, and the nation was once again rising with lots of money from investors.

 

How Will the Russians Rebuild Their ¹1Military?​

~ What military .. ? Obviously they don't have much of one to begin with. Maybe Pootin will just make another supersonic missile .

 

missile don't win wars.

 

China is very different.

This isn't the first time Russia has lost a lot of investors. Russian demand will also be low, because it will take a generation, or more, for their economy to recover.

 

As I have studied the Rus and they are stubborn but fighting against more Rus who knows, no Americans are sent there, good. send them guns,

 

China is heavily invested with the US economy....Russia isn't.

The sanctions in place on Russia won't be removed anytime soon....could be decades in its entirety....when US applies sanctions wherever it may be....usually it's there to stay.

 

Exxon-Mobil bailed on building their lng pipeline for them, so they are losing their infusion of new tech, or even basic tech, faster than they can do it on their own.

 

It has nothing to do with either China or Russia. Those who want to invest money in most things have a very short memory, generally only around a decade.

And so long as a nation stops the behavior that caused others to pull away, within around a decade in most cases the money will return.

You are confusing the nation that gets the money with those that invest it. There is no difference between the nations really, only in how investors perceive it and how the general public will react.

And by around 2030, what happened in Ukraine will be as distant as Tiananmen Square was in 2000, short of any further aggravating actions by Russia.

 

Investors are not quite as drunk as you think. Russia is not investor friendly, and for the most part, that can't change. The one exception is the energy sector, and those guys will get in bed with anything.

 

You mean unlike China 30 years ago.

Right.

As I said, short term memories. And only believe what they want to believe.

 

Not at all.

In fact, while China went after economic development like a madman, Russia nursed it's grievance, which was based on old BS.

They took opposite paths..