Illinois breaks record for population loss, outmigration in 2021

Discussion in 'United States' started by kazenatsu, Dec 30, 2021.

  1. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

    May 15, 2017
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    Despite a higher-than-expected 2020 population count, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates Illinoisans moving away was the sole reason for the state’s record loss of the equivalent of nearly everyone in Springfield.

    Illinois’ population declined by a record 113,776 residents from July 2020-July 2021, according to estimates released Dec. 21 by the U.S. Census Bureau.

    This marks the eighth consecutive year of population decline for Illinois, according to Census Bureau estimates. The only state that’s population has been in decline longer, West Virginia, currently is suffering its ninth consecutive year of population decline.

    Illinois continues to see a natural increase in population as births outpace deaths, but by an increasingly narrow margin. It also is gaining residents from abroad. But so many people are moving out of Illinois to other states that the state’s total population is in decline.

    Estimates from the Census Bureau show there were 2,778 more births than deaths in Illinois, 5,766 net migrants gained from abroad, but 122,460 residents lost on net to other states. The loss in residents to other states was the largest in state history.

    Both domestic outmigration and total population decline were third-worst in the nation in terms of the raw number – better than only New York and California.

    The new estimates take into account the official 2020 Census count, which showed Illinois’ population was higher than expected, though still within the Census Bureau’s margin of error for their total population estimates. While many were quick to celebrate the 2020 Census results as proof Illinois’ outmigration crisis had been overblown, the new estimates confirm the most likely scenario: people are moving out of a shrinking Illinois.

    Given that new estimates suggest even further outmigration and population decline than in years past, it is likely Illinois’ increased census outreach spending and improvements in Census methodology - such as the ability to respond online - resulted in a higher, more accurate baseline count in 2020 than in 2010, but that the estimated components of population change were still fairly accurate.

    That shows a sad truth that Illinois’ outmigration crisis is not only real, but worse than ever and accelerating.

    Historically speaking, the major reasons Illinoisans are choosing to leave the state are for better housing and employment opportunities, both of which have been made worse by poor public policy in Illinois. Nearly half of Illinoisans have thought about moving away, and they said taxes were their number one reason. Population decline also contributes to the lower economic prospects of the state.

    It remains unclear to what extent these factors contributed to Illinoisans moving out of state from 2020-2021, rather than other factors such as pandemic-related job losses, school closures and government mandates. Nonetheless, Census data confirms Illinois’ outmigration-driven population decline has reached record levels and is more of a problem now than ever, regardless of the cause.

    Conservatives will probably point out that Progressive Democrats are in control of this state, and this population movement does not reflect so good on the outcomes of their policies.

    related threads:
    The decline of Illinois
    people are leaving the Northeast
    California's population starting to empty out into surrounding states

    Some thoughts, that you don't have to read...

    Just an interesting observation to point out, I notice that the same states that people are fleeing from are the same places where the majority of immigrants from foreign countries are moving to.

    Could there be a connection there?

    It also leaves one wondering if maybe these immigrants first move to these type of states, and then years later they or their children will then move to other outlying states.

    What usually attracts immigrants is places where there is a vacuum and other people do not want to live or work. That usually creates opportunities for immigrants to come in and occupy that space which Americans prefer not to fill.

    Could these places be serving as catalysts to draw in immigration to the country? Maybe places with very high costs of living that are difficult for working class or middle class people to live in. The immigrants are able to gain a foothold in those places, but eventually decide they no longer want to live there and leave to greener pastures elsewhere in the country.
  2. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

    Oct 2, 2018
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    I would not be mad at Florida was experiencing population decline for some period.

    Instead I have heard estimates that 1,000 people a day are moving here.

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