As member Doug_yvr points out... an RCP electoral map has been created that shows the current polling & predictions for certain states, with 168 points worth of toss up numbers. Data: So, which way do you think these toss-up states will land? Simply go to www.270towin.com and show us how you think it'll go. Here's mine: and I was being nice.
Ignoring the shades which make no sense at all, your map still makes zero sense. It has a 0% chance of happening. The demographics just don't make it possible. He's going to win NV, but lose FL and CO? What are you basing this on when being nice? He's going to win PA, but lose OH? FL and OH are the most likely states for Trump to add to Romney's map. His next most likely state is probably PA, but he'll only win PA if he wins OH.
Admittedly, the states that I think will have closer results I ended up giving to Trump. I don't think Florida will be as close as it was in 2012. I think the unclear postion on marijuana legalization pushes Colorado Clinton's way. Also, if these elections have taught me anything, it's that anything can happen.
Arizona - Clinton, huge increase of Hispanic voter registration there Colorado - Clinton, trending blue, probably light blue at this point Florida - Clinton, unless Rubio is Trump's VP which Rubio says no way. No help from Jeb here either. Georgia - Trump, but by a point or two. Georgia is slowly moving to a light blue shade Indiana - Trump easily Iowa - Clinton, Iowa has always been a light blue state. Kind of out of place politically with its surrounding states. Missouri - Trump, but barely. Democratic voters in St. Louis and KC are increasing more than GOP voters. Nevada - Clinton, barely, mainly because of Las Vegas voters. New Hampshire - Clinton, New Hampshire is ready to join the rest of the northeast as a reliable blue state. North Carolina - Clinton, barely. NC split the last two presidential elections. Ohio - Trump, barely. by 1 point. That is if Clinton does not choose Sherrod Brown as her VP. If so, Clinton easily. Pennsylvania - Clinton, just like it went to the Democratic nominee in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections. Virginia - Clinton, Too many folks from D.C. have moved into Virginia. Virginia is a light blue state becoming solid blue.
How is Trump going to win NV? RCP is wrong. That state isn't a toss up anymore. It clearly is leaning blue. I would take a wave election for Trump to win it.
A realistic upside for Trump would be 2012 +OH, FL, PA, VA, NH, IA, and CO MI, WI, and MN would be unlikely. NV and NM would take a wave. If Trump wins those states then OR, NJ, and CT could even be in play. A realistic upside for Clinton would be 2012 +NC and AZ NE-2, GA, SC, IN, and MO could happen if there's a wave.
Here is an interactive electoral map where you can change any state you wish into any party you wish. Have fun. http://www.pollheadlines.com/2016-presidential-electoral-map.php
