Millions of jobs to dissapear as robotics advance

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by jdog, Oct 4, 2015.

  1. fifthofnovember

    fifthofnovember Well-Known Member

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    I'm talking about problems in general being solved by AI instead of human brains. We may excel at finding problems, but what happens when we become inferior to machines at solving them?
     
  2. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    These problems sound like they will be tough. How do you propose people feed and shelter themselves while attempting to find and solve such problems?

    -Meta
     
  3. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    I agree with the first part of what you wrote,...but to suggest no one has come up with a pragmatic solution?....

    1. The government first needs to step up and provide or hire some of those unemployed people to provide what the poor lack.
    Build houses for the homeless, provide more food for the hungry, ensure everyone's health and education are tended to,
    and while you're at it, fix up the infrastructure. Pay for it by taxing those at the top who most benefit from the automation.

    2. At some point the standard work week should be shortened, especially for employees who's duties can easily be split between multiple workers.
    And keep shortening it as more jobs become automated. Increase vacation time, paternity leave, and generally just let people have more time off
    without reducing their yearly pay.

    3. When people aren't working as much and their basic needs are taken care, the government should shift to higher order needs.
    Build, maintain, and operate more community centers, public tennis courts, parks etc.

    -Meta
     
  4. Taxpayer

    Taxpayer Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Feeding and sheltering is one of those problems.





     
  5. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    The biggest problem though, is that if all of the people needing problems solved have none of the resources,
    people wont be paid for solving problems, they wont be feed, they wont be housed, and any problem requiring resources,
    which is most of them, will not even get solved. Problems without the resources needed to solve them are just that,....problems.

    -Meta
     
  6. Taxpayer

    Taxpayer Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A need for new resources. Interesting problem.





     
  7. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    I'll tell you what'll happen,...

    Those who own the machines and the raw natural resources will live completely self-sufficiently.
    And if we haven't changed the system by then, such that the benefits of the resources and machines flow down to everyone,
    those without natural resources or machines will find themselves in a world of hurt. It will probably lead to a not very pretty revolution.

    -Meta
     
  8. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    A problem which you can't expect the average person to be able to solve,
    for not even the greatest minds among us can today figure out how to create something from nothing.
    And starving people is not going to change that, in fact, it just gives them less time to think.

    -Meta
     
  9. Taxpayer

    Taxpayer Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They've had plenty of time to think. Haven't done much with that time.

    The greatest minds would realize you don't have to start with nothing. There are things all around us.





     
  10. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    That's what I'm saying, no one has, and not for lack of trying.
    Starving people isn't going to change that. It just leads to people starving to death and or rising up against those hoarding the food..

    All of which will be owned by a small percentage of folks if we continue to allow all the benefits of machines and natural resource flow up to the top.

    -Meta
     
  11. Shiva_TD

    Shiva_TD Progressive Libertarian Past Donor

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    A thought provoking suggestion but I'm afraid it fails on several points so let's look at them.

    First of all the pricetag for this is huge and the problem is that technology is replacing much of what is suggested.

    For example looking at infrastucture a few years ago I watched a road repair take place. Roads wear out, crack, and need replacement due to use and weather and when I grew up this generally involved tearing up the existing road, having new asphalt brought in by truck, layed down and leveled by workers, and then "steam rolled" flat to compact it. I watched as a single huge machine dug up the existing asphalt at the front end, reprocessed it, spit it out the back and rolled it flat. That single machine could completely repave about a mile of road a day and eliminated perhaps 100 or more jobs that would have been previously required.

    Providing housing and food for the poor doesn't resolve the problem of poverty and merely mitigates the effects of the poverty. The proposal basically condemns them to living in poverty without any benefit from the advancements in technology. I agree with the proposal that everyone should have quality health care but that still doesn't address the underlying problem of poverty.

    Finally education is becoming more and more worthless from and economic standpoint because no one is smarter or has better memory than a computer. As I believe I've noted that today's engineering software has replaced the need for about 80% of the mechanical engineers because it does all of the calculations that the educated engineer used to perform. Artificial Intelligence and Technology are replacing education.

    There are numerous pragmatic problems with this proposal.

    First and foremost is that technology remains a double-edged sword. It increases productivity so it can provide more goods and services but it also eliminates jobs. The implementation of technology is based upon a cost/benefit analysis and if the enterprise saves no labor costs by employing technology then it won't pay the "cost" to implement the technology so we don't benefit from the technology. There has to be a financial benefit before the technology is used and by continuing the labor costs and actually increasing the labor costs then the techology will stop being developed and we lose the benefits that technology offers.

    There's another factor not being considered. Statistically about 47% of American households don't have enough income currently to live on. That doesn't change under this proposal and nothing is really worse than being stuck at home with no money. Work, even with under-compensation, is actually less costly than not being employed at all because the person has no time in which to spend the money or to worry about not having enough money to spend on their basic necessities. I once worked seven days a week from the New Years break to Memorial Day without a break and while I was working I spent very little money because I had no time to spend any money. I was making a lot but couldn't spend it. Of course when I got Memorial Day weekend off I spent money like a drunken sailor but while working I didn't have time to spend money on anything except my basic bills. I didn't even have time to buy clothes or other necessities.

    We'd also need to address where to "draw the line" for implementation of this proposal because technology has been eliminating jobs since the Industrial Revolution. To arbitrarily draw a line for technology lacks a logical foundation because even a hand held calculator eliminated jobs because it could do math functions faster than a mathmatician. How do we determine which technology eliminated jobs when all technology eliminated jobs.

    The final nail in the coffin is that all products and services we require will eventually be provided for by technology so virtually no one would have a job. Basically the work week becomes zero hours for virtually everyone. Yes, a very small segment could remain employed but as noted this all relates to the "humanities" (e.g. art and philosophy) where none of this is actually "required" but instead enjoyed by many people but only when they have excess income to spend on it.

    And the technology will be able to provide these without employment and only those with enough income can really take advantage of these "recreational" services and facilities. If you can't afford tennis balls then the tennis court is just another piece of concrete with a net. Before anything else we need to address the problem of poverty today because poverty limits the ability of a person to enjoy recreational pursuits.
     
  12. Shiva_TD

    Shiva_TD Progressive Libertarian Past Donor

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    Ironically the technology provides the resources but those that require the resources can't afford them because the technology and all it produces and provides is owned by the wealthy.
     
  13. CourtJester

    CourtJester Well-Known Member

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    Suspect you are deluding yourself although time will tell. Clearly all clerical, factory, and sales jobs can be replaced. Almost all driving jobs will be at risk. Teaching job as are already being eliminated. It is actually harder to find any jobs that employ a significant number of people that cannot be eliminated if the costs justify using smart robots or computers.
     
  14. CourtJester

    CourtJester Well-Known Member

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    That is already happening. The new segregation in America is segregation by wealth. The truly rich now have almost no actual contact with low income people except perhaps when shopping or dining at exclusive venues. Or, if the accidentally bump into their gardener .
     
  15. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    What causes poverty (as in an absolute lack of money/purchasing power)?.....a lack of opportunity. And what does it take to create opportunity?....
    Access to resources (via a job, or otherwise) and the skills and education necessary to use those resources to create new wealth....
    and then hopefully getting to keep at least some significant portion of that wealth. Therefor, if we see to it that folks are educated
    as needed and that their basic needs are met,...instead of spending all their time and effort just trying to stay afloat,
    they can spend it and the resources they'll save pursuing opportunities for recreation or to get ahead if that's what they desire.
    But absolute poverty will not exist as we know it.

    There is sure to always be some poverty (as in a relative difference in money/purchasing power) relatively speaking (and that's not necessarily a bad thing)
    but if peoples' needs are all taken care of, again such poverty will not be what we currently think of as poverty.
    Why do we consider poverty bad?.....because one who is poor cannot afford to obtain the things he or she needs and or wants.
    If people can obtain those things, then relative poverty becomes largely inconsequential (though I will say there are still dangers if it becomes too extreme).

    Furthermore, while things are not yet fully automated, the jobs I suggest hiring the currently unemployed to do would have two effects (in addition to providing the people hired with incomes).
    1. By reducing the surplus workforce, it will lead to wages and other compensation increasing for all those who have jobs in the private sector.
    2. If they are building things like houses, the price of all houses will decrease for everyone. Making it more affordable for the poor to buy one, satisfying one of their major needs.
    The same can be said of healthcare services, food production, and various infrastructure improvements.

    And as wages increase and needs are satisfied, the currently poor naturally find themselves with both more time and resources with which they can then dedicate to recreation.
    And once everything does become fully automated,...there's nothing stopping the government from providing people with tennis balls, or even rackets.
    Heck, they actually already do that now (at least in Fort Worth), you just have to go to a community center, and it'll only be easier once the production
    of the balls and the rackets becomes fully automated. They could put a court out in the middle of nowhere and set up a racket and tennis ball dispenser...

    I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here^....I'm not suggesting we stop automation from eliminating jobs,
    nor am I suggesting that work weeks, or anything else be based on which jobs are getting cut,
    rather such things ought to be based on what's needed by the needy, and how broadly
    we can spread out our joint responsibilities without severely compromising production.

    There's not going to be a single silver bullet to solve this problem. It will instead be a culmination of things which we will have to implement in order to address it.

    Yes, many of the things I suggested, such as construction infrastructure improvement and maintenance may become fully automated in the future,
    but they aren't fully automated now, and I don't believe they will be any time soon. In the meantime, we have an outdated crumbling infrastructure, a surplus labor force, many of which willing and able to do the job, and certainly needing the money, and an extremely wealthy upper class who ultimately reaps the most benefit from infrastructure and society in general, and who currently is not paying taxes in proportion to what society grants them exclusive control over, and who is more than able to fund such endeavors. That's not to say I'm suggesting the government just start handing over houses to poor people for free, for things like that, there should be a charge to offset the costs of making it, but the price would undoubtedly be more affordable than a house made for the sole purpose of seeking profit.

    Admittedly though I should have added a step 4 to that list. Once everything truly is fully automated, then what needs to happen is that everyone must be provided with continual access to that automation, the resources required to operate it, and or the resulting goods and services. That's really all it takes at a high level and while I think there are multiple things that need to be done along the way and not one silver bullet I also believe that neither the problem nor its solution are all as complicated as folks are making it out to be. It is not a natural or physical problem at core, its origins are purely social in nature, so the solutions must simply be changes to the social structure.

    < Automation leads to more production and more wealth in society. Woe be to a foolish people that let such a good thing be its downfall >​

    While I'm at it, I might as well also add that some sort of wealth or net worth tax wouldn't hurt either, although personally I don't think its necessary to fundamentally change our current tax structure. Even if the tax is still collected primarily through income, the effective rates can still be representative of wealth shares. In fact, we're really not that far off right now, at least amongst the lower and middle classes. We just need to tweak the effective tax structure at the top a bit, and we'll be all set. Such will help with improving social mobility.

    We don't have to eliminate the incentive to produce or to create technology for any of these things to happen.
    We just have to ensure that the benefits of such tech (and the natural resources) are split between the employee (or former employee) and the enterprise owner...
    as opposed to that benefit going entirely to one or the other.

    Like I said, first off their needs would be met through government. This would be done by hiring some of those folks who would otherwise be stuck at home with no money.
    Second, the workweek would be reduced, spreading out the existing work across an increased number of people. And freeing up time for those who worked in the past.
    Third, The government would hire folks to provide for recreational needs. Art, music, etc. could be included here as well.
    Fourth, once everything was fully automated, the government would need to ensure that the perpetual benefits of that automation and the resources reached everyone.
    In such a scenario, work itself might become a luxury of recreational nature. It might even be the case that some begin to pay others for the opportunity to work,
    not because they needed to, or as an intermediate step to get something they wanted, but because work itself was what they wanted.
    Tell me, does that really sound like such a bad life?

    -Meta
     
  16. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Yup, its like I said....such a thing really shouldn't be a problem at all. It is but extreme greed which turns a good thing, into a bad thing.

    < Automation leads to more production and more wealth in society. Woe be to a foolish people that let such a good thing be its downfall >​

    -Meta
     
  17. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Seems our lack of appreciation for rejected aspects of our humanity is finding another way to be a problem.

    There is also an assumption that robot manufacturing and uses will occur without impacts destructive to vital elements and that people will have an appreciation for the those impacts.

    Such indicates that teaching and practicing ethics with regard to vital elements could become very important.
     
  18. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Therein is what my last post is about.

    Both sides of supply and demand are addressed with continuity in mind.
     
  19. GeorgiaAmy

    GeorgiaAmy Well-Known Member

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    Unbelievable. What a silly question.
    Progress brings new jobs, new skills, people adapt, learn new trades. That is the worst argument for stagnation and against progress I have ever heard.
    I doubt the Japanese are terribly concerned about it.
     
  20. GeorgiaAmy

    GeorgiaAmy Well-Known Member

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    What is your definition of rich?
     
  21. GeorgiaAmy

    GeorgiaAmy Well-Known Member

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    People in the projects in the US have smart phones.
     
  22. GeorgiaAmy

    GeorgiaAmy Well-Known Member

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    It is positively amazing you think raising minimum wage would fix anything.
    The rich don't owe anybody anything.
    You on your computer or phone, educated, with electricity, clean water, clothes, food, access to a hospital... Globally, you are the richest.
    Sell that computer and turn off the electricity and use those funds to side the starving in third world countries.
     
  23. GeorgiaAmy

    GeorgiaAmy Well-Known Member

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    There are people without clean water and no shoes. What should be done about third world countries? Shouldn't you be solving their needs first?
     
  24. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    What do you think?
     
  25. GeorgiaAmy

    GeorgiaAmy Well-Known Member

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    I think the conversation regarding the greed and wealth of industrialized countries and addressing immediate life or death matters in third world countries is nonexistent here.
    I find it ironic the international forum is more concerned about the American middle class and US gun laws-for ethical reasons, than it is about pioneering a team effort beneficial to third world human beings without clean water.
     

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