Mitt Romney possible landslide indicated by polling data released today

This likely what were looking at when polling date is unskewed. I started another thread here on how some pollsters are skewing their results by oversampling democrats.

Mitt Romney possible landslide indicated by polling data released today

The latest Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll released today shows Mitt Romney back in the lead over President Obama by a 47 percent to 46 percent margin and three percent preferring another candidate. When voters leaning to one of the candidates are included, Romney has a 49 percent to 47 percent lead over the president. The poll also finds the president having a 49 percent approval rating while being disapproved by 51 percent. This is where Barack Obama has been in this poll for months, with the exception of briefly having an approval rating at or above 50 percent for a few days earlier this month that appears to have been a “bounce” after the Democratic National Convention.

The Rasmussen poll also found that 49 percent of Republican voters are following the race on a daily basis while just 42 percent are doing so. Likewise, other national surveys of the presidential race have, including the Washington Post/ABC News poll released earlier this week, found a higher “enthusiasm” factor about the race among Republican voters than that of Democratic voters.

The map above is an alternative analysis of the electoral vote standing for this presidential race done for QstarNews.com by the author of this article. The methodology for this particular map is quite simple. For each state, the polling data listed for that state at Real Clear Politics is viewed, and when obviously skewed media polls are removed, the remaining credible polls are averaged. If that average shows Obama at 50.1 percent or better, that state is shaded blue for Obama. Any result below that for Obama, and the state is shaded red for Romney. This reflects just about all the undecided vote going to Romney by the time voters cast their ballots in the actual election.

The remaining key events left during this campaign are the three presidential debates between President Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Even among most polls that are skewed, such as the Washington Post/ABC News poll released earlier this week that show Obama with a 49 percent to 48 percent lead, the race is at best tied or within the margin of error of the polls. A strong performance by Romney in that first debate could easily lead to Romney having a four to seven percent lead in most credible polls.

Strong performances in the other two debates could easily double that lead for Romney. Additionally, Romney is expected to have a strong advantage in available money for purchasing advertisement buys both nationally and in the key swing states. This advantage could move enough percentage points in the polls to win many or all of the states that are still in play by mid to late October.

Given what the current polls are showing, even a 54 percent to 40 percent margin among independents for Romney in that heavily skewed CNN/ORC poll, it is reasonable to predict that Romney could very well win among independent voters by a margin of 55 percent to 45 percent. Democrats could support President Obama by a 85 percent to 15 percent margin while Republicans show support for Romney by a margin of 90 percent to 10 percent. With Romney closing the sale for his candidacy with strong performances in the debates, the enthusiasm factor among the Republican based, and the lesser of such a factor among the Democratic base, leads to Democrats voting 10 percent less and Republicans voting 10 percent more. These factors, and the electorate resembling the partisan trends measured by Rasmussen Reports in interviewing tens of thousands voters, which shows the electorate this year made up of 37.6 percent Republican voters, 33.3 percent Democratic voters and 29.2 percent independent voters.

Calculations using those numbers and parameters described above suggest a popular vote projection of Romney winning 58.3 percent to Obama's 41.7 percent. That is comparable to the popular vote majority received by Ronald Reagan in 1984. If Romney's popular vote percentage is anywhere between 55 percent to 58 percent, some of those blue states on the map above are likely to have turned red on election night. Put simply, given that Obama's continued disapproval by the majority of likely voters, and the possibility that Romney could finally close the sale for his candidacy with stronger performances in the three debates with Barack Obama, the swinging of just about all the undecided voters to Romney along with a strong turnout by the Republican base could lead to a Romney landslide.​

 

lol right, ignore the writing on the wall....

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

67.0%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $6.70 / share
Today's Change: +$0.22 (+3.4%)

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

 

for the record intrade got the 2010 midterms correct, 2008 election AND the 2004 election

 

Yeah, I've seen this "analysis" before.

Everybody but Dean and a few far right-wing zombies are laughing at it because ol' Dean just tosses whatever poll he doesn't agree with.

I hope right-wingers actually believe this is the likely outcome. The emotional devastation when the election is over will be entertaining for quite some time.

 

Anyone get the feeling that toddwv tries to purposely hurt feelings in his responses?

 

Is that why Paul Ryan is back in Wisconsin campaigning for his House seat again?

 

When the last two elections have been very evenly split between republicans and democrats please justify the over sampling democrats.

 

Exactly. This is why I love the work being done in this this area now, using the data from these pollsters, but adjusting the sample so it's more scientific. For this methodology, it really doesn't matter if CBS skews the sample, they can skew it all they want. All we need is their raw data, along with all the other bias pollsters, and we can derive from that a real scientific poll. From this one done here recently, Romney gets a reagan like landslide.

 

Actually he's there turning Wisconsin bright red. Check out the map!

 

Well this makes sense because his opponent is a Carter like screw up.

 

Can he run both for VP and his seat in congress?

 

Yea, and devastation of all Americans will be felt for much longer if Obama is reelceted. But who cares right....dem's win! Keep up the good work tod.

 

That's what I'm counting on with left wing chumps. Rasmussen, the pollster rated the most accurate and most consistent
in the last presidential campaign... http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php -has Romney up slightly 48% to 45%
and considering this is after the dem convention, that's saying something! http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ministration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The debates will tip things Romney's way, considering Obama's miserable economy (remember that economy thing?) and
when the undecideds realize how Obama left our embassies dangling naked in the wind on 9/11...well, they won't like it.

 

Kind of uncanny how similar this is to 79. Carter was perceived as very weak in the middle east as well. The economy was terrible. Gas was high, taxes for the rich were high. And there were phony polls showing Carter with a lead. Oh, yeah and the press was on his side as well.

 

Wow how this poll got it all wrong

 

Ah great walk down memory lane...

 

Ah yes the "Romney Landslides".

 

Obama Care wasn't working it cancellation, website, high deductible and outrageous yearly out of pocket costs magic yet either. You know what's coming and you just can't stop it now.

SEN. HARRY REID (D-Nev.): “In fact, one of our core principles is that if you like the health care you have, you can keep it.” (Sen. Reid, Congressional Record, S.8642, 8/3/09)

SEN. RICHARD DURBIN: “We believe — and we stand by this — if you like your current health insurance plan, you will be able to keep it, plain and simple, straightforward.” (Sen. Durbin, Congressional Record, S.6401, 6/10/09)

SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): “If you like your insurance, you keep it.” (U.S. Senate, Finance Committee, Bill Mark-Up, 9/29/09)

SEN. PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.): “Again, if you like what you have, you will be able to keep it. Let me say this again: If you like what you have, when our legislation is passed and signed by the President, you will be able to keep it.” (Sen. Murray, Congressional Record, S.6400, 6/10/09)

SEN. MAX BAUCUS (D-Mont.): “That is why one of the central promises of health care reform has been and is: If you like what you have, you can keep it. That is critically important. If a person has a plan, and he or she likes it, he or she can keep it.” (Sen. Baucus, Congressional Record, S.7676, 9/29/10)

SEN. TOM HARKIN (D-Iowa): “One of the things we put in the health care bill when we designed it was the protection for consumers to keep the plan they have if they like it; thus, the term ‘grandfathered plans.’ If you have a plan you like — existing policies — you can keep them. … we said, if you like a plan, you get to keep it, and you can grandfather it in.” (Sen. Harkin, Congressional Record, S.7675-6, 9/29/10)

THEN-REP. TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.): “Under the bill, if you like the insurance you have now, you may keep it and it will improve.” (Rep. Baldwin, Press Release, 3/18/10)

SEN. MARK BEGICH (D-Alaska): “If you got a doctor now, you got a medical professional you want, you get to keep that. If you have an insurance program or a health care policy you want of ideas, make sure you keep it. That you can keep who you want.” (Sen. Begich, Townhall Event, 7/27/09)

SEN. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.): “We should begin with a basic principle: if you have coverage and you like it, you can keep it. If you have your doctor, and you like him or her, you should be able to keep them as well. We will not take that choice away from you.” (Sen. Bennet, Press Release, 6/11/09)

SEN. BARBARA BOXER (D-Calif.): “So we want people to be able to keep the health care they have. And the answer to that is choice of plans. And in the exchange, we're going to have lots of different plans, and people will be able to keep the health care coverage they need and they want.” (Sen. Boxer, Press Release, 2/8/11)

SEN. SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio): “Our bill says if you have health insurance and you like it, you can keep it…”(Sen. Brown, Congressional Record, S.12612, 12/7/09)

SEN. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.): “For the people of Maryland, this bill will provide a rational way in which they can maintain their existing coverage…” (Sen. Cardin, Congressional Record, S.13798, 12/23/09)

SEN. BOB CASEY (D-Pa.): “I also believe this legislation and the bill we are going to send to President Obama this fall will also have secure choices. If you like what you have, you like the plan you have, you can keep it. It is not going to change.” (Sen. Casey, Congressional Record, S.8070, 7/24/09)

SEN. KAY HAGAN (D-N.C.): ‘People who have insurance they're happy with can keep it’ “We need to support the private insurance industry so that people who have insurance they're happy with can keep it while also providing a backstop option for people without access to affordable coverage.” (“Republicans Vent As Other Compromise Plans Get Aired,” National Journal’s Congress Daily, 6/18/09)

SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D-La.): “If you like the insurance that you have, you'll be able to keep it.” (MSNBC’s Hardball, 12/16/09)

SEN. PAT LEAHY (D-Vt.): “f you like the insurance you now have, keep the insurance you have.” (CNN’s “Newsroom,” 10/22/09)

SEN. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.): “If you like what you have, you get to keep it” “Menendez is a member of the Senate Finance Committee, which is expected to release a bill later this week. He stressed that consumers who are satisfied with their plans won't have to change. ‘If you like what you have, you get to keep it,’ he said.” (“Health Care Plan Would Help N.J., Menendez Says,” The Record, 6/19/09)

SEN. JEFF MERKLEY (D-Oreg.): “[E]nsuring that those who like their insurance get to keep it” “The HELP Committee bill sets forward a historic plan that will, for the first time in American history, give every American access to affordable health coverage, reduce costs, and increase choice, while ensuring that those who like their insurance get to keep it.” (Sen. Merkley, Press Release, 7/15/09)

SEN. BARBARA MIKULSKI (D-Md.): “It means that if you like the insurance you have now, you can keep it.” (Sen. Mikulski, Press Release, 12/24/09)

SEN. JAY ROCKEFELLER (D-W.Va.): “I want people to know, the President's promise that if you like the coverage you have today you can keep it is a pledge we intend to keep.” (U.S. Senate, Finance Committee, Hearing, 9/23/09)

SEN. JACK REED (D-R.I.): “If you like the insurance you have, you can choose to keep it.” (Sen. Reed, Town Hall Event, 6/25/09)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.): “‘If you have coverage you like, you can keep it,’ says Sen. Sanders.” (“Sick And Wrong,” Rolling Stone, 4/5/10)

SEN. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.): ‘if you have health coverage that you like, you get to keep it’ “My understanding … is that … if you have health coverage that you like you can keep it. As I said, you may have missed my remarks at the beginning of the call, but one of the things I that I said as a requirement that I have for supporting a bill is that if you have health coverage that you like you should be able to keep that. …under every scenario that I’ve seen, if you have health coverage that you like, you get to keep it.” (Sen. Shaheen, “Health Care Questions From Across New Hampshire,” Accessed 11/13/13)

SEN. DEBBIE STABENOW (D-Mich.): “As someone who has a large number of large employers in my state, one of the things I appreciate about the chairman's mark is — is the grandfathering provisions, the fact that the people in my state, 60 percent of whom have insurance, are going to be able to keep it. And Mr. Chairman, I appreciate that. That's a strong commitment. It's clear in the bill … I appreciate the strong commitment on your part and the president to make sure that if you have your insurance you can keep it. That's the bottom line for me.” (U.S. Senate, Finance Committee, Bill Mark-Up, 9/24/09)

SEN. JON TESTER (D-Mont.): “‘If you like your coverage, you'll be able to keep it,’ Tester said, adding that if Medicare changes, it will only become stronger”. (“Tester In Baker To Discuss Health Care,” The Fallon County Times, 11/20/09)

SEN. TOM UDALL (D-N.Mex.): “Some worried reform would alter their current coverage. It won't. If you like your current plan, you can keep it.” (“What I Learned: About Health Care Reform This Summer, By Your Lawmakers In Congress,” Albuquerque Journal, 9/8/09)

SEN. SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.): “…it honors President Obama’s programs and the promise of all of the Presidential candidates that if you like the plan you have, you get to keep it. You are not forced out of anything.”(Sen. Whitehouse, Congressional Record, S.8668, 8/3/09)

http://washingtonexaminer.com/27-de...uld-keep-your-health-coverage/article/2539245

 

Wow, the right is now awfully silent. Oh well. Good times, good times.

 

I am on the right side on politics, this just goes however to show you don't count on polls

 

Or you could always keep an open mind and instead of relying upon one or two polls, rely on a whole bunch of them polling various groups. A normal survey will only have a few thousand. Ten surveys will give you a much better idea what's going to happen.

 

you do realize that poll was taken almost two months before the election

 

Wow, look at all of those liars! I am ashamed that one of them is representing Alaska.

 

The problem is that polling companies and the people polled cannot take into account the unknown factors at work behind the scenes and nor a random act of God. Thus nobody knew that the IRS was helping Barack Obama win the election. Everybody Right of Center knew that Obama was flat out lying about the real nature of ObamaCare but since the ideologically corrupt Mainstream Media was helping THEIR GUY lie about it, the general Democratic and Independent and Swing voters DID NOT KNOW. Ditto for Benghazi. Then the random act of God occurred in the last minute arrival of Hurricane Sandy which gave the chronically in-the-tank-for-Obama mainstream media the golden opportunity to play up Obama as this false IMAGE of a leader who actually knew what he was doing.

So even though most unskewed polls really did give Romney the edge (after being methodically unskewed) nobody could do ANYTHING about those other factors.

 

this is why I use RCP average of all polls