Moderna says an omicron variant vaccine could be ready in early 2022

https://www.chop.edu/centers-progra...he-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-19-vaccine

 

This is the best article I can find backing up what Centrefield has explained and what I have argued in terms of long term adversity in Covid 19 viruses:
https://bostonreview.net/articles/the-long-term-safety-argument-over-covid-19-vaccines/

 

Definitely going for the beer rather than the milkshake. Or maybe you could provide some nice red wine? With fine cheese and artisan bread? Haha!

Just one correction, buddy. I had said that the mRNA strands and the spike proteins made by the mRNA vaccines are transient. Antibodies against the spike protein are more durable although eventually they also fade. But yes, new antibodies will be made if someone encounters EITHER another booster shot OR the virus, because of cell memory. B memory cells will be activated into plasma cells, which are antibody factories. They will make again the antibodies against the spike proteins.

From a previous discussion before I put him on Ignore, it seems like Thedimon was worried about the spontaneous recurrence of the antibodies without a new shot and without a first or new encounter with the virus. The thing is, these mRNA vaccines are very narrow in focus. They produce just the spike protein, so the antibodies will be the ones geared towards the spike protein. If any interaction between the antigen, antibodies, and "self" cells were to occur, of course they are much more likely to occur when you throw into your body all 29 proteins of this virus multiplied by trillions of viral copies, as opposed to the few spike proteins produced by the vaccine. You'd develop with the live infection antibodies against not only the same spike protein, but also all other 28 proteins and their fragments of digestion.

With Omicron coming, and a R0 close to 12, believe me, everybody who is not vaccinated will probably get it. It seems like 3 doses of the vaccines (2 basic ones + booster) will still stop many cases (not all, so even a lot of vaccinated people and even some boosted people will get it too; but will fight it off better due to cellular immunity). So, not getting vaccinated and boosted because of fear that the spike protein from the vaccine will result in antibodies that will cause some weird reaction years later, is plainly stupid, because if such thing were to happen, it would happen to a much higher magnitude by contracting the live virus.

 

Still waiting on scary symptoms. Because right now based on everything I've read, it's either more mild then delta or the dreaded "we have to wait and see" narrative.

It's ****ing mild. That's the end of it. Regardless of what doctor fear monger may have to puke in this thread.

Omicron is great news if it becomes the dominant strain. Mild symptoms are a great thing. We are all going to get it. We are all going to get over it. VERY few people will get hospitalized. And even fewer then that will succumb to this thing.

Oh you may die from Omicron if you get into a car accident while you have it, sure. But for the most part I see Omicron as great news.

 

Good Lord. Please don’t try and explain the immune system. You’ve basically just claimed cellular immunity doesn’t exist.

 

I had already pointed to this error in post #278. It is very common for people, especially lay people, to only pay attention to humoral immunity, and completely forget about cellular immunity. We see it in the lay press too and actually sometimes even in the professional press.

I guess it's more bombastic and it sells more newspapers, gets more viewers, or gets more web clicks if journalists/TV pundits yell out loud "OH MY GOD THE TITER OF ANTIBODIES DROPPED THE VACCINES ARE FAILING WE ARE ALL DOOMED THE SKY IS FALLING!" They won't stop and realize that this is exactly what happens to most vaccines... initially high titers of antibodies fade as the immune system shifts more to storing memory cells, but when the antigen/pathogen is encountered again, B cells get activated into plasma cells and fresh batches of antibodies are made, not to forget that cytotoxic T cells also combat infections regardless of antibodies.

Often this is why the new variants evade protection against infection (there's no longer a sufficient titer of neutralizing antibodies) but the person with the breakthrough infection will have a milder and shorter illness because both T cells and fresh new antibodies made from the B-cell line will limit the virus' assault.

I think this kind of blindness to cellular immunity is the similar to the blindness to the non-lethal consequences of the Covid-19. People pay attention to death stats and say it's not a big deal because it's "just" 1%-2% of confirmed infections who die (although 1%-2% applied to millions and millions of people, is a lot of people) and mostly the old and infirm, but they never consider how many people (including the young and healthy) who survive a bout with the SARS-CoV-2 come out of it with transient or permanent organ damage (sometimes mild, sometimes very serious). So the damage this virus causes is way above the smallish percentage who die.

Also, people focus on the wrong stat when they panic with the number of new cases and number of deaths. New cases is not the scariest part. It's number of hospitalized patients that is actually the one significant stat. One, because number of new cases is underestimated so the percentage of dead patients among all infected persons is necessarily smaller than the percentage of deaths as related to the confirmed cases. On the other hand, number of hospitalized patients is actually the stat that shows how serious and dangerous (or mild and not dangerous) the outbreak is, and how manageable (or unmanageable) it is for that community's healthcare system.

Because if we get 300,000 new cases of Omicron per day but initial reports of mild disease are confirmed and almost nobody gets sick enough to go to a hospital, who cares? It might even be a blessing in disguise (more herd immunity).

Now, if we get just 150,000 new cases of Omicron per day but 30,000 of them end up in hospitals with serious disease, then we're in trouble.

Also, there's always the headline "75 people who are fully vaccinated got the virus!!! The sky is falling!!!" but they never say how many people in that community were vaccinated and did not get the virus.

If 75 vaccinated people in a small town where 100 people were vaccinated get a breakthrough infection, that's one thing; it would appear that the vaccines are not working so well as only 25% of the vaccinated people were not infected. If those 75 people are in a large city and are among 1,000,000 people who were vaccinated and 999,925 people did not get infected, then the epidemiological significance of the absolute number of 75 is very different, isn't it?

Even the stats that show that say, 25% of patients in hospitals are vaccinated and 75% are unvaccinated, and this has changed from 20% and 80% respectively, are often misleading. They appear to indicate that the vaccines are failing more, but if the vaccinated population increased in the area while consequently the unvaccinated population shrunk (due to a big vaccination drive) then the apparent increase in the breakthrough infections may actually be a decrease, percentage wise.

This was seen in an article brought in by our notorious resident anti-vaxxer Kazenatsu. He showed such an increase in the proportion of vaccinated people who were sick in hospitals, in the UK, between two points in time. Well, the UK achieved a high vaccination rate of 80%. So the unvaccinated masses shrunk to 20% of the population. It turns out that the percentage of vaccinated people in hospitals as compared to the total number of vaccinated people in the country, had actually dropped from one point in time to the next, while the percentage of unvaccinated people had actually increased, since they were coming from a much smaller total population. And this was actually acknowledged further down in that article, with the numbers and percentages, but obviously that wasn't the part that Kazenatsu chose to highlight.

So the very stats that seemed to show that the vaccines were failing, actually showed that the vaccines were working.

---------

The bottom line:

Immunity assessments talked about by pundits, journalists, and politicians, should always include humoral AND cellular immunity (we know they won't do that).

Stats about the number of vaccinated people who get infected with breakthrough infections should always not just be absolute numbers, but be quoted in what percentage of the total vaccinated population in that area, they represent. I think we should have a saying like this: "It's the denominator, stupid!" - 75 out of 100 is very different from 75 out of 1 million.

And stats about new waves should always start by saying how many people are in hospitals and what's the percentage they represent of the total of available hospital and ICU beds for that community, to really gauge the real impact of the surge, regardless of the much less reliable and less significant number of new cases.

But, you know, this would make too much sense. Can't have that.

 

In abstract math, you take a process, detach it from physical objects and test whether the model can be applied to other objects that share similar properties. If you developed a model and got one working result but continuously fail to repeat the same result on other, similar, objects then you have a problem with your model, with all of the possible consequences.
We have two viruses (flu and covid) that share similar property - they have a region that is used to fuse to a host’s cell. It took scientists less than a year to develop an mRNA vaccine against covid (which in itself is a novel virus and is not nearly as well studied as influenza), but they can’t figure it out for flu for a very long time. All I’m trying to figure out is why? Is there a barrier of some sort, or something that prevents antibodies triggered by an mRNA anti-flu vaccine to bind to the target region? If you can’t repeat the same technique - that’s a red flag to me and quite a few others.

Antibodies do not spontaneously re-emerge. They bind to a pathogen to produce pathogen-antibody unit, which is then being broken down by a process called phagocytosis, a process where immune cells break down the pathogen for safe disposal. It’s in this stage where fragments of the offending pathogens dna or rna (bacteria or virus) are being introduced into your naive T cells and this data is stored for your lifetime, and even gets passed down to your children in the portion of your DNA that used to be considered a junkyard. Those T cells are present in your blood. Tonsils in your mouth act as sensors that sample everything that goes into your stomach or into your lungs and they activate the necessary T cells when the signature of known pathogen is detected, which in turn start producing copies of the antibodies that successfully trapped the pathogen in first infection.
Antibodies naturally degrade in a fairly short period of time, but the instructions on how to recreate them are preserved for a lifetime and passed down to your children. Immunity is said to wane, but in reality the pathogen just goes through its own genetic drift and becomes less recognizable.

No, I said those who mandate these vaccines to others without taking into account the fact that real long term implications are not known could be accused of committing a crime against humanity.
If you are a politician who is in a position to force people to inject mRNA vaccines against their will then that statement applies to you. Doctors and scientists are doing their thing, but a leader must weigh pros and cons of their decisions that seriously invade their constituents’ privacy and autonomy, especially if that decision can affect their health and life throughout their lifetimes, not just the next couple of years.

If we were talking about a drug then I would not make those arguments. But a vaccine has a timing component to it and an instruction, which alters a behavior (process), which might, and often does, lasts entire lifetime, so, long term effects are absolutely important and must be carefully studied in vaccines that utilize new platforms (conceptual model).
I’m not saying mRNA vaccines will cause any negative effects. But not that long ago humanity came across a wonder chemical that killed bugs very well, so people started spraying this chemical on everyone and everything in their environment, including food. That chemical worked very well and caused drastic reduction in insect-borne diseases. Many years later they discovered that the wonder chemical was causing cancer. The chemicals name was DDT. I’m not comparing DDT to Covid, I’m comparing leadership insisting on people using something against their will without weighing potential long term consequences, as at that time long term consequences of exposure to ddt were not known.

 

No. It’s looks more like you aren’t really reading posts you are replying to. Has been a common recurrence in this thread.

 

As far as I understand it, the immune system produces antibodies that target different regions of the virus, not just the spike protein, and some of those regions mutate much slower than others, which gives your body better ability to recognize mutated version of the virus. There are numerous papers out there claiming that natural immunity outlasts vaccine induced immunity. Maybe having them all is beneficial.

Only for those who are older than 50. For the rest the ratio is smaller at least by a factor of 10. For kids it’s literally near zero!

 

~ Some will gladly become human pin cushions ...

​

{ Unvaccinated blood transfusions sell at a premium }
​

 

What's the point in an Omicron specific vaccine? Why wasn't there a Delta specific vaccine, or at least one in development?

 

~ There is opportunity to make money .

 

Why wasn't there a Delta specific vaccine, or at least one in development? Wouldn't that also be an opportunity to make money?

 

~ Can't be too greedy ... More vaccines to come !

 

He is, I am and anyone else can read your posts. Stop it Thedimon. Your entire argument is based on claiming spontaneous adverse reactions long after B and T cell memory no longer exists. Anyone can read you writing circles to try argue years after no Covid 19 Vaccine is in your body, your body has changed permanently and stored something that can randomly just come into being from a dormant stage and cause a health issue. That is why you were challenged.

Pretending you didn't argue what you did is silly.

 

Is your question genuine or does it show you are ridiculing the topic? If its the latter I will put you on ignore. If its the former you know very well all viruses change in structure and so vaccines have to be modified to keep up with the new strains. You know this from the flu shots.

So I can only conclude at this point you are being sarcastic so the question is, do you give a **** about the topic or have you closed your mind and are hear to simply fear monger based on irrational claims that have no basis in reality?

 

No.
I was not talking about spontaneous antibody production. I was talking about ADE - Antobody-Dependent Enhancement. It happens when your body tries to fight a mutated strain with inefficient antibodies that do not properly bind to the pathogen and fall off during phagocytosis, which releases the pathogen into the immune cells, which in turn infects them. ADE can make your symptoms worse and can cause auto-immune disease (because your immune system will be tasked with killing and removing infected immune cells). The likelihood of ADE does not decrease with time, it actually increases with vaccines if the pathogen mutates to a point where the antibodies your immune system produces result in the virus infecting your immune cells.
The immune system is dynamic and continuously updates its “library”, but when you keep pumping exact same mRNA vaccines against different strains then you are playing with fire.

 

Thedimon stated yet again:

"In abstract math, you take a process....."

Again Thedimon reverts back to using the couched term "abstract math" to try pose his subjective fears of Covid 19's vaccine as being logical. You will notice once again the context of his supposed math process is the irrational belief that years after a vaccine it could cause adverse reactions. He was explained his "process" is not the process involved with the vaccine.

Thedimon again stated:

"...It took scientists less than a year to develop an mRNA vaccine against covid (which in itself is a novel virus and is not nearly as well studied as influenza), but they can’t figure it out for flu for a very long time. All I’m trying to figure out is why?"

Thedimon again circles back and repeats the same false myth he made earlier that Covid 19's vaccine was created to quickly and so is dangeroius.He was provided information as to why this was not true..

Thedimon again uses a question to make this repeat statement:

"Is there a barrier of some sort, or something that prevents antibodies triggered by an mRNA anti-flu vaccine to bind to the target region? If you can’t repeat the same technique - that’s a red flag to me and quite a few others."

In fact Centrefield explained the answer to the above. The claim there is a red flag makes no sense. If a vaccine does not work effectively on a specific individual which is always possible, it simpluy means they suffer more from the Covid 19 virus NOT the vaccine. No one argued Covid 19 viruses are 100% effective. What we have tried to explain is that in most cases they are. In those where they are not, of course the person is also treated with other things...they aren't left to die.

Thedimon interestingly stated:

"Antibodies do not spontaneously re-emerge. "

His entire argument to date has been the above.

Now he adds this formula:

"Antibodies naturally degrade in a fairly short period of time, but the instructions on how to recreate them are preserved for a lifetime and passed down to your children. Immunity is said to wane, but in reality the pathogen just goes through its own genetic drift and becomes less recognizable."

If your body can because of memory stored indefinitely create antibodies, then the pathogen if its reintroduced in the body would be dealt with meaning you have natural immunity. However vaccines do not create natural immunity to Covid 19 or the flu and no one ever claimed they did because they can not. The very dynamics of B and T cell memory don't work for these vaccines to create indefinite memory in fact the exact opposite. So what reality is he referring to? In reality the same pathogen would not be less recognizable you in fact would take a new vaccine and start the process again. If you keep taking the same vaccine for the same pathogen it will create the antibodies needed to treat it. If in fact the virus changes or mutates, a new vaccine is made.

Again all I can state is the above was already explained by Centrefield as false and inaccurate and the fact Thedimon simply circles back and repeats the same false assumption shows he is not interested in any opinion but his own.

Thedimon repeated:

"No, I said those who mandate these vaccines to others without taking into account the fact that real long term implications are not known could be accused of committing a crime against humanity."

This is the statement Centrefield took exception to. It suggests all physicians and scientists who have worked on and tell you to take Covid 19 are criminals. Its irresponsible and its absolutely irrational. The people who have worked on Covid 19 vaccines and continue to do so have spent enormous time and energy so you and I can be safe. To suggest they did not take into consideration long term implications is with due respect bullshit.

The only long term implication Thedimon has been able to remotely try suggest is he thinks antibodies will suddenly appear years from now from some magic memory process creating natural immunity and yet he thinks natural immunity should be feared as dangerous.

Thedimon stated:

"If you are a politician who is in a position to force people to inject mRNA vaccines against their will then that statement applies to you.. Doctors and scientists are doing their thing, but a leader must weigh pros and cons of their decisions that seriously invade their constituents’ privacy and autonomy, especially if that decision can affect their health and life throughout their lifetimes, not just the next couple of years."

Thedimon's above statement deflects from his statement Covid 19 vaccines are not safe because they were rushed and the long term effects are not know. No one whether it be government, me or Centrefield have ever ordered Thedimon to take a vaccine. What some of us have said, is that if Thedimon does not want to take the vaccine he should not expect to be able to expose himself to the public at large for basic common sense reasons that have to do with his increasing the risk of being a contagious carrier and exposing people to the virus.

Thedimon made this statement:

"If we were talking about a drug then I would not make those arguments. But a vaccine has a timing component to it and an instruction, which alters a behavior (process), which might, and often does, lasts entire lifetime, so, long term effects are absolutely important and must be carefully studied in vaccines that utilize new platforms (conceptual model)."

Again Thedimon makes an absurd statement. Vaccines are of course drugs and all drugs carry instructions with different periods of efficacy before they wear out. In fact some drugs last in the blood stream far longer than vaccines. They require quite some time to build up to have an effect. Next he again repeats the false statement that Covid 19 "could have" long term effects.

Thedimon stated:

"I’m not saying mRNA vaccines will cause any negative effects. But ..."

The above some people refer to as the phenomena known as cognitive dissonance and this is where someone contradicts themself very quickly. Some refer it to trying to blow and suck at the same time.

He then went on to state:
"not that long ago humanity came across a wonder chemical that killed bugs very well, so people started spraying this chemical on everyone and everything in their environment, including food."

He again repeats the false fear mongering analogy referring to DDT which was not administered as a vaccine and whose side effects are not even remotely similar or possible or unknown with vaccines.

At this point this is my last response to Thedimon as he simply talks in circles and repeats the same 4 subjective statements.

That is his right. Its my right to ignore him as well.

 

I will stop responding to you on your repeated myths but you again try pass off a new false statement that taking the Covid 19 vaccine will make you sicker if you get a different strain of it..

What we do know is no you do not get sicker from then new strain when you get any of the strains if your vaccines are up to date in fact the exact opposite. You get sick but are far less likely to need hospitalization.

Here is the advise we are all being given:

"Although current vaccines may not be a perfect fit for Omicron they are still the best line of defence against Covid.

They have cut the risk of severe illness against the other major Covid variants, including Delta, Alpha, Beta and Gamma.

Doctors say it is vital people get the recommended number of doses to gain maximum protection against existing and emerging variants.

The government is ramping up its vaccination programme in response to Omicron, and hopes to offer every adult in the UK a booster jab by the end of January.

Although Covid infections have been rising, the number of hospitalisations and deaths has remained well below the levels seen in earlier waves. Experts say this is because of the success of the vaccine programme"

source:https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820

The above position is the same in Canada, the US and across the world.

Please ignore this fear mongering and for further info:


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/about-variants.html

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-variant-vaccine

 

Centrefield I am never sure about fear mongering. If we stay silent it spreads. If we respond to it, it is almost never read by the fear monger spreading it and if anything entrenches their feelings of being under attack, out of control and being threatened by a conspiracy to poison them, i.e., the illuminati wants to kill us off.

I guess at this point I will stop with the above person although I do look forward to your explanations to reduce the anxiety people may have.

Next I just want to assure you I am not in the illuminati. I hate Kanye West and I can not shape shift into a Draco alien.The closest thing I look like is a cranky old man.

 

Wow!

And these two are the “science guys” around here?
If that’s true then our education is in a sad state now. Total lack of attention to detail and total lack of ability to enumerate and quantify a process and apply it in similar scenarios. Abstract thinking is nonexistent. Instead we get red herring and avoidance of discussion on subject at hand.
I guess, I’ll just let the readers judge and come up with their own conclusions.

 

~ Yes indeed ... '

 

Well Delta was a change in structure too, right?

 

First, you are likely aware I am vehemently opposed to mandates of Covid vaccines. I’m not opposed to mandates because I think mRNA vaccines will end up killing a lot of people.

I won’t dismiss your comparison of immunity to programming because creating immunity is programming. I don’t know how that could be denied.

I do believe it’s hard to make a direct comparison because programming is pretty straightforward in regards to what is known to happen when a certain input occurs. For instance, 01000001 will always be “A” in your programming because the entire system is set up for that to be the case. I’m contrast, it’s difficult to know what an input will do with immunology because we didn’t create the hardware. To add detail to the analogy, with the immune system we are trying to program the equivalent of a “computer” we found on a UFO made by someone else. We can only learn about it by inputting information and observing what comes out. To complicate things even further, there are lots of alien computers (human individuals) that are all built a little differently and are not static—their ability to process inputs is affected by a multitude of outside influences. Examples include general health, immune system health, history of past infections, etc.

To further compound the analogy of programming to immunity, immunity isn’t one device—say a tablet or laptop. It’s at least 3, and likely four now that we know innate immunity can be “trained”. We have (1) innate immunity, (2) trained innate immunity, (3) humoral adaptive immunity, and (4) cellular adaptive immunity. So in your programming analogy you would have phones, tablets, laptops, and watches, all with different functions and created by different companies trying to work correctly with the same code. For immunity from vaccines it’s too complex and we know too little about each one specifically and how they interact to predict how one vaccine platform will work on one virus.

An analogy I like to apply to immunology and vaccine effectiveness is weather and meteorologists. We know a bit about what causes weather phenomenon. And we learn more every day. But we still suck at predicting the weather. We are better than 10 years ago because we have more data and observations. But not enough to be correct every time or even understand sometimes why we don’t know the answer.

To speak to vaccines and negative effects more specifically, we do know severe “side effects” are relatively immediate. Things like anaphylactic shock, Guillain Barré Syndrome, thrombosis etc. occur soon after vaccination.

What can occur later are negative consequences not universally considered “side effects”, the most notable being decreased vaccine effectiveness with multiple (annual) influenza vaccination. In the interest of not repeating myself here are some links to my content on the subject.
http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?posts/1073041010/

http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?posts/1073041030/

I think if you follow that thread you will find a pretty comprehensive discussion of the “science” and the politics of this phenomenon with influenza vaccines. To be clear, there is no evidence this will be the case with Covid vaccines although a similar phenomenon is observed in HPV vaccine doses in excess of an initial dose and a booster.

Another possible longer term negative effect is viral interference. It’s theorized influenza vaccination reducing natural infections (natural influenza infections produce more complete and more permanent immunity than influenza vaccines) has a negative effect on the individual vaccinee by depriving them of amped up innate immunity that would have occurred had they been infected. Some studies (not all) show increases rates of rhinovirus and other viral infections in influenza vaccinees compared to unvaccinated individuals. It should be noted there are some cases where vaccines for other viruses confer protection against non target viruses. It looks like influenza vaccination has provided protection against Covid to some extent, likely by stimulating the innate immune system. So viral interference can be a positive or a negative.

The only other long term negative I’m aware of (assuming my memory isn’t failing me) is seen with DPT vaccines in rare cases altering the regulation of cytokines, leading to latent or subclinical infections (like urinary tract infections) becoming active/clinical.

Now, all these examples are far from catastrophic. The closest would be reduced efficacy of subsequent repeated influenza vaccinations. It’s a problem that should be addressed by the CDC but likely won’t be. For the same reason Mr. Ponzi couldn’t make his scam “right”. But it’s relatively simple for individuals to take available information on the subject and make better personal decisions than the CDC is making on your behalf. The point is, while there may be minor negative effects from mRNA vaccines, it’s highly unlikely any will be catastrophic system failures. More like glitches we don’t throw our computing devices in the dumpster over.

Essentially, mRNA vaccines are subunit vaccines (which historically have had varying degrees of efficacy) that have pretty good safety records. In part because they don’t have the ability to cause disease (like live poliovirus vaccines for example). Even though we can’t predict exactly how efficacious a vaccine platform will be, we know the odds of serious problems are very low. Just like we know the average snow storm isn’t going to come with high risk of tornadoes.

 

Centerfield is a legit science guy. He’s just frustrated from watching so many people die who didn’t have to. Death is a chronic science denier. Just ignore him, he knows little of virology or epidemiology—just the little bits “authorities” deem fit for public consumption. He is continuing to deny cell mediated immunity exists and is often very long lived or lifelong. That is a straight up denial of science. Just ignore what he says, it will just confuse you if you try and decipher it.

If you have other questions or my previous posts weren’t clear just ask for clarification. I don’t care one way or another whether someone gets vaccinated or if they have concerns. I’m pretty unemotional about the whole thing—I guess until people start talking about mandates. Then I get a little excited.