My Science is not your Science

Discussion in 'Science' started by Grey Matter, Jun 3, 2022.

  1. Pieces of Malarkey

    Pieces of Malarkey Well-Known Member

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    Just out of curiosity, do you have any idea how science works or why it must theoretically be "supported"?

    It's not like it's a political campaign. If it's done right, anyways.
     
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  2. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    The Center for Scientific Integrity promotes transparency and integrity in science and scientific publishing, disseminates best practices and works to increase efficiency in science. They also watch for hijacked journals.

    These are activities that support science.

    You don't do any of these - you just post papers that were retracted. And, that doesn't improve science in any way.
     
  3. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    If you have a concern with what I've said, please feel free to note that.
     
  4. Pieces of Malarkey

    Pieces of Malarkey Well-Known Member

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    That you don't know what you're talking about?

    I think that's been proven already.
     
  5. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I'm pretty sure that if you knew something I got wrong, you would inform me.
     
  6. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    What retracted papers have I posted?
     
  7. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    How the Disinformation Industrial Complex is destroying trust in science

    Posted on April 23, 2023 by curryja | 86 comments
    by David Young

    Much has changed in science since the pandemic and much of it is change for the worse. The pandemic has highlighted the loss of credibility of the public health establishment and the often toxic nature of current public discourse. John Ioannidis stands out as perhaps the best example of a fine scientist who was smeared and denigrated mercilessly both online and in the literature. There was also a flood of fraudulent papers and badly flawed studies. This made claims that we should follow the “The Science” almost laughable, given the extremely poor quality of much of the science. The use of coercion was inexcusable when there was no rigorous basis for it.

    Continue reading →
     
  8. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Grey Matter likes this.
  9. Grey Matter

    Grey Matter Well-Known Member Donor

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    Interesting, heck, if I was still a fourth-of-the book junkie I used to be, I'd buy this just for the cover art.

    [​IMG]

    https://www.amazon.com/Doubt-Certainty-Climate-Science-Longhurst-ebook/dp/B0BYL6WSYL
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2023
  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Scientists Employ Wit To Highlight The Lack of Climate Trends Across Greece Since The 1800s
    By Kenneth Richard on 1. May 2023

    Share this...
    The accumulation of over two centuries of precipitation records across Greece indicates there have been overall slightly declining trends in precipitation extremes across the region and “negligible climate variability.” This supports a new study’s tongue-in-cheek title referencing a “404 Not Found” climate crisis.
    Eight scientists have published a new study examining the popularized conceptualization of an anthropogenically-induced climate change that has increasingly become “the post-modern scapegoat for which every disaster is blamed.” The authors point out, for example, that even the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic has been blamed on a human-caused warming climate.

    The study utilizes detailed precipitation data available for Greece, as these climate records often extend to the early 1800s.

    The scientists tendentiously searched for climate-related (i.e., 30+ years) trends that might confirm there is a “climate emergency, climate crisis, etc.” in the works linked to an anthropogenic influence.

    However, no trend consistent with any anthropogenic climate influence could be found in the records. Hence, the wit-intended “404 Not Found” study title (which one of the 3 peer-reviewers recommended be kept in the final publication rather than discarded).

    “The current period can be characterized as normal without notable climatic events.”

    “The overall period does not show a linear trend or appreciable difference in the two 30-year climate periods.”

    “…precipitation did not linearly change during the past 7 decades.”

    Analyses of precipitation extremes may even support a “decreasing, albeit slightly” trend over the two centuries, as the record average and maximum rainfall depths occurred in the 1800s or early 1900s.

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Koutsoyiannis et al., 2023
    In anticipation of the timeworn, “But Greece is not the globe!” criticism, it should be noted that comprehensive analysis of global-scale precipitation data in the satellite era also do not support detection of intensifying trends associated with the timing of the sharp rise in anthropogenic CO2 emissions or a warming climate.

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Nguyen et al., 2018
     
  11. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    New Study: Climate Models Have Uncertainties, Errors Over 100x Larger Than Claimed Drivers Of Warming
    By Kenneth Richard on 4. May 2023

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    Per a new study on the hydrological cycle’s role in climate change, today’s state-of-the-art climate models “assume the mean relative humidity at the ocean surface is constant.” They are also known to “assume unchanged wind conditions.” Even with this imaginary constancy, “uncertainties in modeling the hydrological cycle significantly [orders of magnitude, or more than 100-fold] exceed the observed effects of global warming.”
    In a summarizing analysis of the thermodynamics associated with Earth’s hydrological processes (Koutsoyiannis, 2021), we learn that the impact of the natural heat exchange by evaporation, or the latent heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere is approximately 80 W/m²/year, or 1,290 ZJ/year.

    Total climate impacts from human greenhouse gas emissions amount to only 0.038 W/m²/year (0.612 ZJ/year in 2014).

    Thus, Earth’s “natural locomotive” is about 2,100 times larger than claimed for anthropogenic forcing.

    It is therefore clearly evident that “water is the main element that drives climate, rather than just being affected by climate as commonly thought.”

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Koutsoyiannis, 2021
    Quote selections from a new review paper (Feistel and Hellmuth, 2023) on the thermodynamics of air-sea processes (i.e., evaporation) expand on the extreme nature of this magnitude differential in even more detail.

    Effectively, the dominance of water in driving climatic processes is so massive that claims we can detect a 0.038 W/m²/year anthropogenic forcing signal amid the orders of magnitude larger background of internal or natural variability, uncertainty, and calculative error is, in a word, absurd.

    “[T]he climate of the Earth is ultimately determined by the temperatures of the oceans,” as “the oceans have a heat capacity about 1000 times greater than the atmosphere and land surface.” Because this orders-of-magnitude oceanic dominance, even “a minor heating flux of just 0.005 W/m² is sufficient to raise the atmospheric temperature at an observed rate of 2 °C per century.”

    “[A]n error of 1% in RH [relative humidity] … would cause an error of 5 W/m² in the computed ocean atmosphere latent heat fluxes. For comparison, the observed global warming of the atmosphere is driven by a minor climatic forcing of only 0.005 W/m², the total anthropogenic power consumption amounts to 0.02 W/m², and the ocean is warming up by 0.5 W/m².”

    “[N]umerical climate models possess uncertainties that exceed certain relevant, either observed or predicted, effects of global warming by orders of magnitude.”

    “[T]he global mean of LHF [latent heat flux] was found to be overestimated in the MME [multi-model ensemble] by 5.9 W/m²…”

    “Observations and models of oceanic evaporation typically deviate from one another by 6 W/m², or 6%.”

    “If also expressed per global surface unit area, even an increase in the large oceanic heat content by as much as 0.5 W/m² would remain well below the model uncertainty range.”

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Feistel and Hellmuth, 2023
     
  12. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The most important climate news you've never heard.
    The science is settled but we just found 19,000 new volcanoes
    [​IMG]
    …Hillier, J. K., and A. B. Watts (2007)

    By Jo Nova

    What would we know?
    Underwater seamounts are one to four kilometer high mountains that mostly used to be a volcano. But under a kilometer of water they are hard to see, holy smoke, and we know more about the moon than the bottom of the Mariana, and it’s only 11km “away”.

    Most of these undersea volcanoes remain uncharted by sonar, and with only one-quarter of the sea floor mapped, it is impossible to know how many exist. Sometimes we only find out when a nuclear submarine runs into one:

    “It’s just mind boggling.” More than 19,000 undersea volcanoes discovered
    New seamount maps could aid in studies of ecology, plate tectonics, and ocean mixing

    Paul Voosen, Science

    In 2005, the nuclear-powered USS San Francisco collided with an underwater volcano, or seamount, at top speed, killing a crew member and injuring most aboard. It happened again in 2021 when the USS Connecticut struck a seamount in the South China Sea, damaging its sonar array.

    Despite discovering nearly half the known underwater volcanoes just this week, we already knew 30 years ago that they had no effect on the climate. The climate modelers said so. They explained that all the unexplained warming was due to CO2. Hence, ipso ergo absurdum, underwater volcanoes “equals zero”.

    The Pacific Ocean cycles are the largest driver of climate on Earth, but we *know* as only high priests can, that volcanoes we’ve never studied definitely had no role in it.

    Thanks to the laws of Government-funded Monopoly Science, the same researchers who would never point that out are now finding reasons that underwater volcanoes might help explain climate change. Now they tell us! Apparently “wake vortices make seamounts the leading contributor to upward ocean mixing, and a central player in climate.” Who knows, they might be right, but where were they twenty years ago when we needed more scientists to point out how inadequate climate models were?



    [​IMG]
    For each seamount example, (left) SRTM15+V2.3 mapped bathymetry, (center) the average Gaussian Model where [omega/h] = 2.4, (right) difference between the average Gaussian model and real data. The gray areas have no soundings.

    Seamounts may play another roll in upwelling of nutrients. These researchers point out that the eddys and currents flowing around seamounts may sweep up nutrients to the surface which feed vast pools of phytoplankton.


    From Science:

    The “upwelling” was once thought to happen evenly across the ocean, driven by turbulent waves at boundaries between deep ocean layers of different densities. Now, researchers believe it is concentrated at seamounts and ridges. “There’s a zoo of interesting things that happen when you have topography,” says Brian Arbic, a physical oceanographer at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

    When ocean currents curl around seamounts, they create turbulent “wake vortices” that can provide the energy to push cold water up, says Jonathan Gula, a physical oceanographer at the University of Western Brittany. In unpublished research, Gula and co-authors have found that these wake vortices make seamounts the leading contributor to upward ocean mixing, and a central player in climate. Since the team relied on the old Scripps catalog, not the new one, the effect of the seamounts is probably even larger, Gula adds. . . .
     
  13. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  14. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I can see how white supremacists would REALLY hate work on understanding these impacts.

    However, the USA stands for equal opportunity.

    And, remaining ignorant of the factors involved is a central element of striving for failure.
     
  15. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    “There is plenty of research that can no longer get funded by the NIH due to political correctness,” said Michael Bailey, a professor of psychology at Northwestern University. Sexuality, for example, is very difficult to research objectively, as progressive definitions blur distinctions between male and female.

    “Both political sides have been less concerned about the truth over the years, but these days, the left is far more deranged and destructive than the right,” Bailey said. “And that doesn’t mean it can’t go the other way at some point.”
     
  16. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    While the science research system worked relatively well for decades, “scientists believe they are intellectually independent, and they can be,” said J. Scott Turner, a biologist and emeritus professor of biology with the State University of New York in Syracuse. “Now, when this funding is overseen by certain entities, they want certain results,” he said.

    This equation, Turner said, also casts doubt on what should be scientifically derived information.

    “It’s a political game now. The death of science should be a source of skepticism. A reality check on government programs is now gone, it’s just not there anymore.”
     
  17. Steady Pie

    Steady Pie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Classical mechanics is a perfectly valid limiting case of special and general relativity. It works for what it was designed to do. Indeed, you can get yourself to the moon using only classical Newtonian mechanics. Much like how quantum mechanics is very likely a valid limiting case of some broader theory that unites it with gravity.

    Science is incremental. Useful theories don't just drop out of the sky.

    I will stress though that science is a method, not an institution.
     
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  18. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    You continue to search out ways to assault science.

    Go for it! How could we POSSIBLY not be a better nation if only we can rid ourselves of science?
     
  19. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    So you approve of political mandates to govern results?
     
  20. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    You haven't provided serious indication of that happening.

    Plus, remember that results we find here are also found over the entire world. That turns your suspicion into a world wide conspiracy theory.

    Remember that our system reserves its largest rewards those who prove new directions. But, they do face the headwind that must be rightfully be assumed when some scientist wants to prove the vast majority throughout the world to be wrong.
     
  21. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    dupe
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2023
  22. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    That was the point of the quote to which you replied.
     
  23. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I agree and stand by my response.
     
  24. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    So you believe Professor Turner is lying?
     
  25. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Nope. My bet is that he holds that opinion.

    Lying would be when he makes statements he knows to be false.

    The fact that he honestly holds that opinion doesn't mean he's right. People believe all sorts of things that turn out not to be right.
     

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