Ocean Heat Has Shattered Records for More Than a Year. What’s Happening?

Nope. You are still in your bias loop. The point is that there's no wildfire connection to purported climate change.

 

The more I think about that statement, the more absurd it becomes.

This particular science is not like a mathematical equation. It is based on numerous assumptions and empirical relationaships. If that was not so, then they should be able to make perfect forecasts both in the near future and decades ahead. No reputable scientist on earth would believe that AGW is a perfect science which can be proved with absolute certainty. It comes down to whether the scientists believe it. And at this time, there is nothing that would indicate that 97% of scientists believe that AGW is the primary cause of global warming.

 

It's good to hear that you finally realized that. Hopefully this means you won't repeat the mistake.

Well... Looks like your realization didn't last long, did it...

 

And as usual, you try to claim my statement had some other meaning, and you avoid commenting on what I did say.

More avoiding what I said because you have no way to refute it.

 

Has anyone considered geothermal pulses.

Or must the provocation be a product of people?

 

The Run of Record-Breaking Heat Has Ended, for Now

A 13-month streak of record-breaking global warmth has ended.

From June 2023 until June 2024, air and ocean surface water temperatures averaged a quarter of a degree Celsius higher than records set only a few years previously. Air temperatures in July 2024 were slightly cooler than the previous July (0.04 degrees Celsius, the narrowest of margins) according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

July 2023 was in turn 0.28 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous record-hot July in 2019, so the remarkable jump in temperature during the past year has yet to ease off completely. The warmest global air temperature recorded was in December 2023, at 1.78 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average temperature for December—and 0.31 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous record.
https://www.wired.com/story/13-mont...ange-global-warming-sea-surface-temperatures/

No reputable scientist on earth denies this is due to man made climate change.

 

The last sentence is a false claim.

 

The water was warmer before.
Early Holocene Reef Growth ‘Substantial And Active’ With 4°C Warmer Water And Faster-Than-Today Changes
By Kenneth Richard on 19. August 2024

A new study dispels the claim that coral reefs are at risk from modern environmental changes or rates.
From about 8000 to 6000 years ago the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) mean annual water temperatures were 4°C warmer than today.

Relative sea levels were ~2 meters higher and seas were rising at rates of ~6 to 7 meters per millennium (6-7 mm/yr).

The Early Holocene climate was also wetter than today, resulting in higher rates of terrestrial runoff (more turbidity and nutrient-rich waters) as GBR coastal land areas were increasingly inundated.

It has been assumed by modern scientists (and popularized by the recent preference for alarmist narratives) that reefs could not favorably withstand these environmental conditions – nor such rapid change.

However, new data suggest coral reef growth was “substantial and active” during this interval, which also characterizes the modern reef growth in this region.

“[W]ater quality during the Holocene between 8 and 7 ka was turbid and with high concentrations of nutrients, yet coral reef growth was substantial and active. The same holds true for modern corals in inshore environments, which can display very high percentage coverage.”



Image Source: Sanborn et al., 2024

 

Here's the answer to the thread question.
“Our analysis of the CERES EBAF 4.2 shortwave fluxes showed that the observed surface and subsurface ocean warming since 2000 (including the 2023 extreme heat anomaly) was exclusively caused by an increased uptake of solar energy due to a decreasing planetary albedo…”
Scientists: 100% Of 2000-2023 Warming Explained By Solar Forcing…Human Climate Forcing ‘Does Not Exist In Reality’
By Kenneth Richard on 23. August 2024

“Our analysis revealed that the observed decrease of planetary albedo along with reported variations of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) explain 100% of the global warming trend and 83% of the GSAT interannual variability as documented by six satellite- and ground-based monitoring systems over the past 24 years.” – Nikolov and Zeller, 2024
A new, observation-based study makes extensive use of satellite data (CERES) to quantify the driving mechanism behind the global surface air temperature (GSAT) warming throughout the first 24 years of the 21st century.

Instead of agreeing with the prevailing narrative, the authors reject the hypothesis that accumulated “heat trapping” from rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in recent decades is the driver of global warming. Instead, satellite observations clearly indicate “100% of the global warming trend and 83% of the GSAT interannual variability” is explained by the increasing trend in absorbed shortwave radiation due to the downward trend in planetary albedo primarily induced by changes in cloud cover.

“According to CERES observations, the Earth’s all-sky albedo has declined by approximately 0.79% since 2000 causing an increase of planetary shortwave radiation absorption of ≈2.7 W/m².”



Image Source: Nikolov and Zeller, 2024
The authors point out that the prevailing narrative that says increases in downwelling longwave radiation from GHGs drive warming in the top 100 meters of the ocean is rooted in assumption. The proposed-but-never-observed (using GHGs as the causal variable) mechanism involves a hypothetical “thermal skin layer” temperature-gradient explanation for how GHG-induced water-warming might possibly work (see Wong and Minnett, 2018). In reality, thermal radiation penetrates less than one-thousandth of a meter and “cannot directly warm the deep ocean.”.

In contrast, satellite-observed increases in absorbed solar radiation – which penetrates 100 m and indeed directly warms the ocean water – explains not only the 0-100 m ocean-warming trend since 2000, but also 80% of the interannual temperature variability.

“CERES data do not support the hypothesis that the observed EEI [Earth’s Energy Imbalance] is a result of heat trapping by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Instead, these data indicate that the Earth system has gained energy through an increased absorption of solar radiation…”

“Our analysis of the CERES EBAF 4.2 shortwave fluxes showed that the observed surface and subsurface ocean warming since 2000 (including the 2023 extreme heat anomaly) was exclusively caused by an increased uptake of solar energy due to a decreasing planetary albedo…”



Image Source: Nikolov and Zeller, 2024
Drs. Nikolov and Zeller further explain “the atmospheric longwave radiation is merely a byproduct (i.e., an effect) of the air temperatures rather than a driver of climate.”

This is because Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) – the energy budget presumed to be the determinant of atmospheric and ocean warming (positive imbalance) or cooling (negative) – “is not caused by heat retention (i.e., impedance of cooling) due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, and therefore does not carry excess energy that can be stored in the oceans and later released to cause more warming.”

In other words, the anthropogenic global warming conceptualization is not a real-world phenomenon. It does not exist.

“[A] global longwave radiative forcing predicted by climate models and attributed to rising concentrations of atmospheric trace gases does not exist in reality.”

“Thus, the available empirical evidence does not support the existence of an anthropogenic radiative forcing disturbing the energy flow within the Earth’s climate system.”



Image Source: Nikolov and Zeller, 2024

 

Coral reefs around the world are turning white and dying.

Today scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared the world is currently experiencing its fourth global bleaching event on record.

Bleaching is bad. During long spells of extreme heat, the relationship between coral and the algae that live inside its tissues breaks down. Those algae give the corals most of their food and their brilliant color in exchange for nutrients and a place to absorb sunlight. White, or “bleached,” corals aren’t dead; they are starving to death.

Since early last year, NOAA scientists have confirmed mass bleaching in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans, including along the coastlines of Florida, the Caribbean, and the Great Barrier Reef. The first bleaching event on a global scale was in 1998. “As the world’s oceans continue to warm, coral bleaching is becoming more frequent and severe,” Derek Manzello, a coral reef ecologist at NOAA, said Monday in a statement.
https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/2...n-coral-spawning-bleaching-great-barrier-reef

It seems to me coral reefs broadly can't simultaneously be dying and doing well. I'm going with the analysis of reputable scientists.

 

Please note that the statement in your link preceded the peer-reviewed research in #1058 by a month. Science advances via research.

 

The answer to the OP question is at hand. I suppose that concludes this thread.
Satellite Observations Confirm 2000-’22 Warming Has Been Due To An Increasing Solar Radiation Trend
By Kenneth Richard on 10. September 2024

“Earth’s energy imbalance has doubled from 0.5 ± 0.2 W/m² during the first 10 years of this century to 1.0 ± 0.2 W/m² during the past decade. The increase is the result of a 0.9 ± 0.3 W/m² increase absorbed solar radiation (ASR)…” − Loeb et al., 2024
Satellite observations from CERES (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) indicate cloud cover has been declining since 2000. Declining cloud cover has meant less shortwave radiation has been reflected to space, resulting in an increase in the solar radiation absorbed by the Earth’s surface (ocean).

Earth’s Energy Imbalance (the net difference between incoming and outgoing energy) has been increasingly positive since 2000, rising from an average +0.5 W/m² from 2000 to 2010 to +1 W/m² in the last decade. This positive trend is the consequence of the +0.9 W/m² increasing trend in absorbed solar radiation (ASR) due to this observed decline in cloud cover.

Thus, the 2000-2022 increase in sea surface temperatures (SST) can be explained by increases in shortwave (SW) forcing, and not an enhanced greenhouse effect due to rising greenhouse gases.



Image Source: Loeb et al., 2024