On Climate Uncetrtainty

jackdog · Sep 10, 2011

excellent paper, easily understandable by the non professional

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2011BAMS3139.1

As George Box said All models are wrong, but some are useful. something we should not forget

waltky · Oct 8, 2011

I've noticed that grass cutting season is longer and leaves turning seems to be later than I remember as a kid...

Is Climate Change Affecting Fall Foliage?
6 Oct.`11 Clocks may not be the only thing falling back: That signature autumn change in leaf colors may be drifting further down the calendar.

Scientists don't quite know if global warming is changing the signs of fall like it already has with an earlier-arriving spring. They're turning their attention to fall foliage in hopes of determining whether climate change is leading to a later arrival of autumn's golden, orange and red hues. Studies in Europe and in Japan already indicate leaves are changing color and dropping later, so it stands to reason that it's happening here as well, said Richard Primack, professor of biology at Boston University. "The fall foliage is going to get pushed back," Primack warned.

Down the road, scientists say there could be implications not just for ecology but for the economy if duller or delayed colors discourage leaf-peeping tourists. Phenology is the study of timing in nature, whether it's crocuses emerging in the spring, leaves falling from trees, or Canada geese heading south for the winter. And it's tricky business for fall foliage. The budding of plants each spring is tied almost exclusively to warming temperatures, while fall's changing colors are linked to cooling temperatures, decreasing sunlight and soil moisture.

The brilliant colors associated with fall happen when production of chlorophyll, the green pigment in plants that's crucial to photosynthesis, slows down as the days get shorter and the nights grow longer. That exposes leaves' yellow, red and orange pigments that are normally hidden from view. How and when that happens depends on temperatures and moisture levels. In some years, the colors are more vibrant than others. Further complicating matters: A tree that's stressed may simply drop its leaves, with no color change, or brown leaves. "Fall is still an enigma," said Jake Weltzin, executive director of the National Phenology Network in Arizona and an ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

Scientists caution that heavy rain, drought-like conditions or temperature extremes can cause dramatic year-to-year fluctuations that don't establish a long-term trend. For example, heavy rainfall in New England this spring, followed by a deluge caused by Irene, is causing fungal growth that's causing some trees' leaves to turn brown and drop earlier than normal. William Ostrofsky, forest pathologist with the Maine Forest Service, is skeptical about whether there's a proven link between fall foliage and climate change. "I just don't know that there's any evidence to indicate there's a trend one way or the other," said Ostrofsky, who points out that year-to-year fluctuations make it difficult to discern long-term trends. "I really don't think we've seen any long-term trend, as far as I can tell."

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See also:

Fall colors depend on weather changes
10/15/2010 4:42 PM | So, why do the leaves change color each fall?

"Every autumn across the Northern Hemisphere, diminishing daylight hours and falling temperatures induce trees to prepare for winter," says Bassam Shakhashiri, chemistry professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Broadleaf, green trees turn to brilliant shades of yellow, orange, and red. Their color changes because the tree's growth factory shuts down for the winter. Winter is a bad time for growing: too little water, too little sun, and too much cold. So the tree stops producing chlorophyll, stores sugars for antifreeze protection, and sheds tender leaves.

"During summer, the leaves of trees are factories producing sugar from carbon dioxide and water by the action of light on chlorophyll [photosynthesis]," says Shakhashiri. To get energy, the large chlorophyll molecules absorb red and blue light from sunlight and reflect green light. That's why trees look green during summer. Chlorophyll molecules use the light energy to change carbon dioxide and water into oxygen, sugars, and starches. The leaves exhale the waste oxygen and keep the food. Water and nutrients flow up from roots through branches and into the leaves. Sugars manufactured during photosynthesis flow out from the leaves to the rest of the tree and the chemical energy of the sugar fuels tree growth. The tree stores any excess energy.

Chlorophyll, however, breaks down easily in bright sunlight. So leaves constantly churn out chlorophyll all summer long and the leaves stay green. The leaves of many trees (for example, birches) also contain the yellow pigment, carotene, which traps blue-green and blue light. As the nights get shorter and cooler, the tree must protect itself for winter. Its stems, twigs, and buds are tough enough to withstand winter, but not so its fragile broad, thin leaves. The watery sap in leaf cells freezes easily. So the tree seals off its leaves and sheds them.

To begin the sealing-off process, the tree grows a corky membrane between each branch and leaf stem. The membrane hinders the flow of nutrients into the leaf which stops the leaf from making new chlorophyll. The old chlorophyll quickly decomposes and the leaf's green color fades. If the leaf contains carotene, birch trees for example, the fading leaf changes from green to yellow. Carotene, a more stable compound than chlorophyll, persists in leaves even after all the chlorophyll is gone. The leaves of those trees now look yellow. The birches, aspens, and cottonwoods in the forest shimmer gold.

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MaxGeorgeDicksteinXXXI · Oct 12, 2011

Climate uncertainty: The REAL factors.

1: Nuclear meltdowns and scheduled releases.

2: genetic modification of crops and livestock/petrochemicals and pesticides in the farm soil.

3: BP oil spill.

4: Hydrofracking

5: The sun.

6: Release of any chemical that eats O3 (ozone)

Everything else (indluding the global warming myth) just does not matter.

venik · Oct 16, 2011

Global warming happens every day observable by even the most dull animals. In the morning it's 60 degrees, and in the afternoon it's 70 degrees.

venik · Oct 16, 2011

MaxGeorgeDicksteinXXXI said: ↑

Climate uncertainty: The REAL factors.

1: Nuclear meltdowns and scheduled releases.

2: genetic modification of crops and livestock/petrochemicals and pesticides in the farm soil.

3: BP oil spill.

4: Hydrofracking

5: The sun.

6: Release of any chemical that eats O3 (ozone)

Everything else (indluding the global warming myth) just does not matter.
Click to expand...

That's a silly one...hydraulic fracturing? I'd love to hear this one.

Newsflash all the chemicals natural to this planet, such as crude oil, came from this planet and it's simply absurd to believe the planet is polluting itself.

waltky · Dec 17, 2011

Uncle Ferd says, "Yea, an' when it hails - dat's hard water...

Meteorologist on Climate Change: 'It's Raining Harder Out There'
December 16, 2011 Meterologist Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel predicted that the world will see more extremes in weather, a possible side effect of so-called climate change.

During a Newsmaker Luncheon at the National Press Club on Wednesday, Cantore was asked how relevant the issue of climate change is to his day-to-day duties and whether it changes the business of forecasting on a short-term basis.

If you look at todays dollars and you go back to the 1980s, we averaged about $1 billion disaster a year. In the 2000s, weve averaged almost five, and in the last two years, weve averaged $7.5 billion disasters per year. So, weve seem more extremes, and were going to continue to see more extremes, Cantore said.

So what I know is the earths atmosphere system is really a very intricate one. I mean you know, the sun heats things differently at the equator than it does the poles. So the earth tries its best to just keep it equilibrium and keep it status quo, unless its interrupted. Then it fiercely tries to get back where it was, he said.

Cantore pointed to the recent heat waves in Russia and Europe and the floods in Pakistan and India. And being a guy who stands out in the rain all the time, it rains, its raining harder out there. And thats really weird. Its not scientific, but when Im out there in it, it just seems to be raining a lot harder. More water vapor means more rainfall, he said.

Source
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bugalugs · Dec 17, 2011

venik said: ↑

Newsflash all the chemicals natural to this planet, such as crude oil, came from this planet and it's simply absurd to believe the planet is polluting itself.
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That is exactly right. That is why I only eat my own faeces. My body produces them - it is absurd to think they could harm me.

Someone · Dec 17, 2011

venik said: ↑

That's a silly one...hydraulic fracturing? I'd love to hear this one.
Click to expand...

I don't think it has any real impact on climate other than the fact that it maintains natural gas production, and the use of natural gas contributes to climate change.

Newsflash all the chemicals natural to this planet, such as crude oil, came from this planet and it's simply absurd to believe the planet is polluting itself.
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To be fair, crude oil itself is just a natural method of carbon sequestration. It's burning refined oil that causes the problem.

TheGreatSatan · Dec 17, 2011

ok ok, so "global warming/hydraulic fracturing" is gunna kill us all... My question is, "How long do we have?" "when?" will the oceans die, givin our current rate of polution? At our current rate of polution, how long till all the o3 is gone? I wanna make a Dooms-Day clock.

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