Interesting. This is the first poll ever showing Romney ahead in PA. Could the unthinkable happen? Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website. Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama. It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State. "The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it," Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner. Romney isn't spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent. Susquehanna's automated poll of 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney. Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008. "Republicans haven't been able to do that in 20 years," Lee said. "Romney has made some major inroads." Lee said Romney also gained ground in western Pennsylvania, where socially conservative, blue-collar Democrats have turned their backs on Obama. Susquehanna has traditionally shown a much tighter race between Obama and Romney than other polls, in part because it weighs its results by party registration. Firms that don't do this tend to over-sample Democrats. Weighting results in Pennsylvania is particularly important, Lee said, "because we know with a pretty good degree of certainty how many registered Republicans and Democrats are going to show up" on Election Day.
Looking at the first results due in that night, those from the EST states, the first big "win" for such as Obama would be any of FL, NC, or VA. They look out of reach for him, but that is where he will score if it is to happen. Ohio may take some time to resolve, as it may be close. But if PA starts to show Romney, then its over. If PA goes ROmney, then so do all the lesser swing states, to include Ohio and Wisconsin, and it is over. At that point, it is just the margin, to see if Romney also picks up such as Michigan. For the record, PA has a history of big swings. Going back to '1858 and 1860. Ask Buchanan and Lincoln. For the record #2. I said in forum one month ago that Romney wins PA. I only had to look at teh polling models they were using. Casey loses too ... This is going to be a lot like 1980.
From the OP's link "Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama." "Romney isn't spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. "Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent."
Well lets check the last poll that mattered....... ....PA and the rest of the rust belt have returned to Red States/Sanity. . .
Well, I think we can now agree I was right about Romney winning the second debate as well as the first. I'd say I have a pretty good track record going. Plus, why are liberals so suspicious about polling data these days. If it don't support Obama, they don't believe it!
Yeah sure Romney won, the fallout of his losing in the second debate is still coming down on him and that will continue. You post this as some legitimate poll when in reality it was a poll paid for by the republican party, and lets not forget even your link says the legitimate polls have Obama ahead.
it must be some of those that lost there jobs to coal shutdowns http://washingtonexaminer.com/penns...-announce-layoffs-blame-obama/article/2502872
its also about gun control there obama in the 2nd debate scared them into switching to Romney. http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/wa...bama-over-clinton-for-pennsylvania-gun-owners
Wow so cleaver. Have you been watching? its almost 3 days and the polls are still going in Romney's direction. Monday is going to be an ass whopping by Romney and in Florida where people really like him.
Please share then. What was this fallout proving Obama won? Please answer because your credibility is on the line.
Go on line and check his support among women is sliding . And I don't owe you any proof since you post such fabrications as this thread.
Meanwhile in the real world..."In their first polls conducted partly after the second presidential debate, both Gallup and Rasmussen Reports show that Mitt Romney has extended his lead over President Obama among likely voters. Yesterday, Gallup’s 7-day rolling average of polling showed Romney up 6 percentage points — 51 to 45 percent. Today, Gallup’s 7-day average, which now includes one day of polling taken after Tuesday night’s debate, shows Romney up 7 points — 52 to 45 percent. Yesterday, Rasmussen’s 3-day rolling average of polling showed Romney up 1 point — 49 to 48 percent. Today, Rasmussen’s 3-day average, which now includes one day of polling taken after Tuesday night’s debate, shows Romney up 2 points — 49 to 47 percent. These are early and partial returns, to be sure. But the initial evidence suggests that second debate might not have helped Obama as much as it helped Romney. Ever since Gallup started releasing polling of likely voters (rather than just registered voters), starting with its October 1-7 polling, Obama’s level of support has ranged between 45 and 48 percent. Romney’s has ranged between 48 and 52 percent. " It was a poll conducted for party campaign officials. This does not invalidate it the same way the Quinnipiac poll is not invalid because I do not approve of the result. The poll is very legitimate, despite what some whiny libs would like.
Hell yeah. I've been predicting a Romney win by 5 points or more, since May. I stand by that. Obama is toast.
I do not know Max, first off the only reason Mitts polls jumped from his first debate was because most people realized he was not the monster Obama had painted and paid for him to be. Usually these debates do not move the polls, not that much. It's doubtful even if you feel Obama had a big win that his numbers would change. Bidens performance did nothing,,right? This entire race is tightening, and unlike what many have said,,,Mitt has not lost steam,,he's gained. He now has Obama by seven points in the general at Gallup, he is over fifty percent. Obama has yet to be over fifty percent. No candidate this close to the election over 50% [likely voters] in the general has lost,,,ever.
Party commissioned polls MUST be more reliable because party strategy relies on them. It does them no good whatsoever to get pro Romney results if they really aren't there. In fact it's counter productive, to say the least. Leave it to you desperate left wingers to try and attack the messenger once again just because you see your false messiah sinking downward like a lead weight. Boo frickin' hoo! Thank you for your angst.
Obama won PA by 10.4% four years ago. That gonna happen again ? I don't know that your joke is the same as mine. But on Nov 7th, we will be looking at the same "joke". Hell yes !!!!!!!
National polls really are not what to look at. This will be decided just as the last few elections by the swing states Florida and Ohio especially. obama still leading in those and still shows as being in better place electorally. But I will agree with you this is and always was going to be a tight race. Time will tell what affect debates had if any. We would probably not agree on the view of who has done better in the last debate and the VP one. But thats OK and that is what makes it a debate.
