Peak Internal Combustion Engine Sales Behind Us

An "operation" you continue to say, or suggest as if you have some proof that a bunch of unorganized participants in a rally were up to something... you just can't say what, nor can you point to any actual violence there, except perhaps for the black capitol police officer who shot and killed an unarmed white woman in the building. Schumer just called for the "whirlwind" against a sitting SCOTUS judge. Actually two. By name. Are you going to stand up to Chuck and demand his arrest? No? Not a word, huh. When you get around to figuring out that the rest of America doesn't care a spit about what was comparatively a picnic compared to the BLM/ANTIFA temper tantrum, you get back to us. And one is hopeful that it will be before another pro choice zealot tries to kill another supreme court justice....

 

Ho many folks can afford the 120K price tag? You do realize that these things are grossly expensive, right?

 

Delusion maybe??? We should go out and buy ModelXs. There will be no mass acceptance of EVs until they reach the low 20k’s.

 

Way to slow .. and too little too late.

 

I am reminded of the Smug crisis South Park episode..... The ridiculous part is folks just think everyone can buy one. I have friends at Rivian. They thought they were going to revolutionize the truck market. Problem is they only sold half of their predicted volume first year. Why? I suggest its because folks want to see one, drive one, have a dealership experience, and not a hope and a prayer wing it experience of having bought it sight unseen on the internet. Ford seems to have agreed with me as they sold off their equity in Rivian recently. I still can't see waiting several hours to charge enough to get another couple hundred miles down the road though.

 

As much as EV Tech has improved - it is still not to the point where these vehicles are practical for the average driver - never mind what the price is. The folks purchasing these vehicles thus far ~ 2-3% of new car sales - are mostly folks purchasing as a fancy new toy and those who happen to have a lifestyle that does not require much vehicle use .. someone living in the inner city and mostly uses public transportation. These vehicles are simply do not have the ability to capacitate the requirements of the average citizen that uses their vehicle on a regular basis for work an daily activities.

Looks like we will get there "fairly soon" 10 years ... not 5.. but then we have the cost problem .. which will only get worse as demand increases.

Already the costs of the materials - some of which are rare and in an inelastic market (meaning small increases in demand resulte in large increases in price) Going from 1% to 2% over the last 10 years caused a huge spike in prices .. now they are saying - as per article in OP .. we will hit 50% by 2040. "lets call it 20 years" which means increasing demand by 2% per year. as opposed to 1% every 10 years -- at which point you should exclaim --- That's impossible - the price of these materials would quickly exceed ability to pay.

Then is the problem of "Power" .. Yes Power -- which does not grow on trees. The increase in power has to come from somewhere.. but there is no "somewhere" .. The only viable means of getting this power is through Nuclear - which we needed to start building 10 years ago .. as that is how long it takes .. otherwise we will have to use fossil fuel for the power .. and what have we accomplished other than a really expensive exercize supplanting on form of CO2 emissions with another.

in the meantime -- while sales of ICE vehicles has peaked .. global CO2 emissions have not .. over last 25 years . emissions have gone from 22Billion tons/year to 36 Billion .. and continue to go higher every year .. due to the Wests "Not in my back yard - Dump it in the Ocean" environmental policy .. which seeks not to get rid of pollution problems but to transport them to someone else - normally some third world nation.

 

But it's a fun question in light of the virtue signaling that so often accompanies an EV purchase.

 

And the load that was shared with gas will be pushed onto our electric power grid that is in need of serious repairs.

You still have to charge the EV. Where do you think that power comes from?

 

FYI, ICE runs on electricity too. !!!!

EVs are already here, complain all you want, but this issue is pretty much moot.

 

At best a niche second car (urban/suburban errand runner) for two-car families of means.

 

I am on the road, highways almost every day, electric vehicles are already ubiquitous.

https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/...-sales-united-states-nearly-doubled-2020-2021

 

Sorry, but Mrs. Hays and I just returned from an eight-day road trip of around 1,600 miles (impractical in an EV, btw), and your claim is false. Hardly an EV to be seen anywhere on I-64, I-70, US 41 or US 35 except when going around a major city. Even there they were rare.

 

That is anecdotal.

BTW

https://www.plugshare.com/
https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC
Thousands upon thousands of stations. !!!

 

And your post is advocacy, of the type that Forbes says has led manufacturers astray. In any case, I'll believe my own eyes over your claims.

 

LMAO, mapped charging stations is "advocacy", that's rich !!!!!

Efficiency and maintenance already proven.

 

Still far short of gas station ubiquity and convenient locations. In any case, no one on a road trip wants to stop for an hour to charge the battery. Your charging station map uses outsize markers to hide those inconvenient truths.

 

I agree.

I dont inherently have a problem with EVs. I would like to buy one.

But it isn't all rainbows and unicorns. There are still challenges to overcome.

 

Gas could be a lot cheaper too if we just allowed companies to drill and stopped taxing the crap out of it.

 

ICE cars do have electrical systems, but they are self generating not relying on the electric grid for their power. Second, yes, EVs are here. I have a great LSV for getting around the neighborhood, etc. But it isn't practical for much else. i have a PHEV that is great for getting out into the city, But, it fortunately has gas motor for longer trips and excursions. Gas wins today. And likely it will for the foreseeable future. EVs must become more dynamic in how they can and do charge. Failing that, folks will suffer the downtime to recharge their EVs. Folks want convenient, even from their smug....

 

No it is not moot.

Folks do not want EVs. There still is much to improve on.

 

ICE are maintenance hogs. !!!

Today you may reap the benefit of a century of empirical improvements, but that technology is fading out, and I presume faster than most expect.

 

Those charging stations are enough to support the current fleet, and they are increasing every hour of the day.

 

And will go the way of the Wooley Mammoth.

 

I would be surprised if hydrogen could be used as a fuel in the ICE engines in cars today. Gasoline has additives to cause a slow burn. Explosive burning is called "pinging" and is bad for the engine. Hydrogen is highly explosive, so one would have to figure out how to make a hydrogen based fuel that burns slowly. I think there are ICE adaptations for propane, so maybe there are ways.

Yes, hydrogen has proven to be expensive today. The Toyota hydrogen car is not cheap to drive.

My understanding is that there are hydrogen stations in the San Francisco area and in the LA area, and driver experience is that these stations are sometimes out of hydrogen. IMHO, hydrogen cars could be great, but they have a lot of catching up to do.

Yes, hydrogen cars with fuel cells and electric motors like the Toyota would emit water vapor only - not polluting. However, the source of the hydrogen would require energy.

 

That car with over 500 mile rage costs way more than $120K!

Yes, that's how new technology works. These companies are dumping huge investments into EVs. They need a return.

They all know that prices have to come down. This is free market capitalism.

I'd point out that demand is higher than can be supplied today. So for one example, Teslas that are 1 or 2 years old can sell for about the same price as new ones.