In a state therefore of great equality and virtue, where pure and simple manners prevailed, the increase of the human species would evidently be much greater than any increase that has been hitherto known. ~Thomas Malthus These are probably the biggest factors in the world today, & they are interrelated. The data is immense, the analysis is complex, & conclusions are not certain. Some trends can be reversed, others seem to be unsustainable & heading for disaster. I have lots of charts, as they illustrate better than words. This is a philosophical overview.. for perspective. Populations use food & energy. Energy can produce more food to sustain a population. Shortages in either food or energy will affect a population. These are all critical factors in human society. 1. Population. A. Most of the increase in world population has been in developing countries, especially those in Africa. Unfortunately, food production has decreased there, & energy resources are few. The unstable political climate makes future improvement uncertain. Population of the world by region: B. Emigration. In past centuries, overcrowded conditions were mitigated by emigration. Europeans, especially, left the crowded cities of their homelands, & moved to north & south america, australia, & africa. Emigration is still going on, but open lands are more scarce, & nations are restricting it more. It no longer seems like a viable solution for overpopulation in a region. C. Human resource. Large populations can provide cheap labor for manufacturing products. These goods can be exchanged for energy or food. I don't have manufacturing as a factor in this list, but it is significant. The only problem with it is if either food or energy are depleted, manufactured goods are secondary. The most important part of manufacturing is in the production & distribution of food. 2. Energy. A. Electricity. The earth at night, showing the regions of high electricity output & generation. B. Oil. From wiki: "Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. Global production of oil fell from a high point in 2005 at 74 mb/d, but has since rebounded setting new records in both 2011 and 2012. There is active debate as to when global peak oil will occur, how to measure peak oil, and whether peak oil production will be supply or demand driven." The idea is that at some time, oil output will decrease, causing shortages & increase in price. Poorer nations will not be able to compete with wealthier ones for the oil supplies, resulting in lower food production, & increasing famine. Fossil fuels are limited in supply, & they will eventually be exhausted. This chart shows proven oil reserves, as of 2009. Oil is very significant for modern society. It is the engine that generates the cheap, abundant food, that enables us to use our resources for luxury items & leisure pursuits. It fuels both production AND distribution of our food. Shortages & price increases in oil automatically translate to increases in food. part 1.
Part 2.. 3. Food. Here is a global view of land use. A. Arable land for farming is decreasing. Erosion, urbanization, & other factors have decreased the availability of cropland. Reliance on chemical fertilizers has depleted the soil, & contributed to erosion. Water shortages have also decreased arable cropland. B. Improvements in methods, fertilization, hybridization, cheap fuel, & machinery have increased yields in the food supply steadily over the years, resulting in lower costs. C. World food production. This chart shows global food production, by metric tons. D. Water. Fresh water supplies in croplands are depleting. Natural droughts affect production, & lowering water tables will curtail future crop growth in those areas. E. Problem areas. Africa. Most of the world has increased productivity, except for Africa. Since the 1990s, their food production has decreased per capita, & they have imported increasingly more food. They also have the worse population growth problem, outpacing their ability to feed new people. Farming methods, political upheaval, reliance on rainwater, & other factors have contributed to this problem. They also have the lowest development in the world, & the fewest energy resources. The combination of all these factors will likely spell continued poverty & famine for the continent. Much of the difference can be attributed to the massive population growth rate, which has outstripped their ability to feed themselves. 4. Analysis. These projections are not new. Doom & gloom predictors have warned of these things for millennia. But the population of the earth has increased exponentially, without the usual constraints of war, famine, & plague.. at least those factors are not slowing the growth dramatically. "What most frequently meets our view (and occasions complaint), is our teeming population: our numbers are burdensome to the world, [The earth] scarcely can provide for our needs; as our demands grow greater, our complaints against nature's inadequacy are heard by all. The scourges of pestilence, famine, wars, and earthquakes have come to be regarded as a blessing to overcrowded nations, since they serve to prune away the luxuriant growth of the human race." ~Tertullian (c. 155-220) Famine seems to be the last, the most dreadful resource of nature. The power of population is so superior to the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction; and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague, advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and ten thousands. Should success he still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow, levels the population with the food of the world. ~Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) Fears of overpopulation in years past were over incremental increases.. a few million or even billion was considered unsustainable, even though the full extent of the earth's resources was not known, at the time. Now, we have pretty much discovered the resources, & most of the 'good' farmland has been in production for centuries. Add to that the exponential increase in population, from better sanitation & hygiene, longer life spans, better medical care & nutrition, & the population factor seems to loom larger than in generations past. The nations with both oil reserves AND productive cropland seem to be poised to grow in wealth & prosperity, as nations without one or both have to export their wealth to meet their needs. Some areas in Africa seemed destined to poverty, as they have neither productive cropland or energy sources. Europe has good food production, but has little oil. Much of the mid east has abundant oil reserves, but little food production. Nations like Brazil, the US, China, & Russia seem to have both, & their outlook is good for both energy & food. This is a lot of information, & there are many other factors in human society, but these are key issues. Facts are useful in determining direction & perception. What we conclude from these facts may vary widely, but they form the basis for an informed opinion. - - - Updated - - - I put this together a few months ago, but did not figure anyone would be interested in it on this forum. It is very interesting, to me, how the different factors interrelate, & how we view them, individually & together.
If that's the case, why does the U.S. continue to willingly export its wealth? At a record rate in the history of the world per Boone Pickens. My guess is that it doesn't have as much to do with nations as it does multi-national corporations.
Mine is a projected forecast. I see food shortages in humanity's future, as do many others. The reasons are listed above.. 1. arable land depleted. 2. water shortages. 3. energy for farming & distribution limited. 4. population growth & demand INCREASE. These do not add up to a happy picture. I do not see the role of multinational corporations, or even superpowers being that effective in addressing these crucial issues. These are global issues that man has not addressed, except as political talking points, to promote an agenda.
I addressed that here. however, I do see the problem of pollution as destroying arable land and water, which worsens food production. the bigger problem is how do people who want to eliminate fossil fuels replace the food lost? the population is increasing, energy is decreasing, food is decreasing, how can this all go on? we cannot even imagine a replacement for gasoline to run tractors. There's no way we can produce food even at the current levels, if we lose farming implements and tractors.
The water is a bigger issue than the land and the limited supply of proven phosphorous is larger than both combined. We won't lose farming equipment. It will be converted to either biofuels, hydrogen or nuclear. We will just have to get off our "Our government can have nuclear but no individual or other society can be trusted" kick. Likewise, that works for shipping--trains, trucks, boats. Of course by "we" I mean our great, great, great grandchildren who survive the plagues that will break out between now and then.
I agree about the water. Arable land with no water doesn't do you much good. Of course that is the definition of arable land.. It is land that can be farmed and assumed there is a water supply. but alternate energy supplies are science fiction. Sure we can speculate about nuclear power or wind or solar that will somehow magically replace fossil fuels, but the reality is we do not know and there's no proof that this can happen. the reality also is, the population is increasing, energy supplies are dwindling, as is arable land. biofuels take food out of the mouths of poor starving people and supply rich prosperous people with energy. historically the poor revolt when they run out of bread. The rich may offer them cake, but generally the culture and society breaks down into civil war, & a new plundering class arises. an elite few become the ruling class and the cycle repeats itself.
Most of what I've read doesn't predict any serious problems by 2050. Arable land can be produced and hasn't all been used up yet, and there are a lot of efficiency improvements that could be made in the way we handle food. Something like 75% of the food produced in the world just gets thrown away today because we have so much extra food. Even post 2050, which becomes hard to predict, the problems will likely be mostly isolated to undeveloped countries.
Well I see absolute food limits in our future if we don't change course but I'm not clear when they will be reached. A lot of smart folks have got egg on their face trying to predict those limits. The techniques for raising food have continually been refined with greenhouses, hydroponics etc. and gmo and various ways of concentrating more food production in lesser and lesser space with smaller and smaller fertilizing inputs. You can grow and manufacture food from algae and fungal sources. Who knows, they may come up with some formula for converting fossil fuel into some sort of food source. Useable water of course can be converted from the ocean employing desalination. I can see massive social breakdown happening, Africa for instance is giving us quite a few preliminary examples, but I couldn't present anyone a clear narrative of what that worldwide catastrophe would look like and what might be the precipitating event(s). Maybe WMDs of some sort will lead the way. There are so many possibilities and the converging of these various threats has to give one pause.
By 2050 they would be able to cultivate directly into the ocean so not a big deal. Just remember next time they ask you to provide charity for Africa politely refuse.
If we're sitting in our Adirondack chairs on the Moon, peering at Earth, we will see Earth brightly lit by the Sun, land masses and oceans. It would be obvious from 250K miles that there's plenty of land and plenty of oceans and plenty of sunshine. Once we go on a walk-about on Earth, we learn there is salt in those oceans, some of the land unfriendly, and often we are in the shade from the sun or dark. So...solar electric must become a huge source of energy, maybe not the primary source in many applications, but a major energy supplement. Ocean water can/must be processed into potable water for growing crops and human consumption. Regarding the use of the land, we simply need to electrify and distribute potable water to all the potential farming areas on Earth. We can achieve all of the above before we even worry about geothermal, or hydroelectric, or wind energy, or nuclear all of which can function in parallel to solar energy. In the USA we whine about not enough jobs, etc. yet a civil project in the USA to create thousands more reservoirs, and dams, and distribute that water everywhere in the USA, would not only create millions of jobs for years but also stimulate the economy and allow rural areas to develop. There's so much we can do, so much that should be done, but politics and personal bias and stupidity keeps us from consensus and doing better...
I just have a stupid smart phone right now, so I can't quote and paste and cut and do all the fun things that I can do on a real computer. so I have more to say later in reply. But a point that I need to make is that we have to deal with what really is, now, and not speculate about all the things that can happen or might happen in the future. Currently there is no easy Desalinization. Currently the water supply is dwindling. Arable land is dwindling. The population is growing. Cheap energy is dwindling. These are things that are facts. we can imagine scenarios where Energy is free and easy once again or where food is magically created in ocean greenhouses, but that is still science fiction and is will not feed anyone.
Plant factory can help the food production. The Fresh water can be made by the desalination plant. The energy will be demanded several times.
I don't think the cultivation of the oceans for plants is a great idea but using the ocean to grow fish and shellfish could and is working. They have Columbines now that map the land report areas of low water, low yield etc... and you can use this map for planting. The planter uses this information to space seeds(either closer together or further apart) and can even change the variety in different parts of the field using GPS. This stuff is way out of my meager income but it is working. Corn (maize) yields have gone through the roof. Right now I am trying to get access to another twenty acres (with a pond,,,fenced) to raise a few more head of cattle. I drive by land every day that is only used to grow brush and weeds. And I feed my pigs on food that is thrown away every day...so... so called useless food can be put to good use Chickens also eat "leftover" food and thrive. Cattle use a lot of water but if you have a pond and unused land...well.... But I will admit that we urgently need infrastructure to get water where it is needed and a reasonable cost to the ag. producer.
Existing facilities and facilities under construction[edit] Estimates vary widely between 15,000-20,000 desalination plants producing more than 20,000 m3/day. Micro desalination plants are in operation nearly every where there is a natural gas or fracking facility in the United States. Algeria[edit] Believed to have at least 15 desalination plants in operation Arzew IWPP Power & Desalination Plant, Arzew Cap Djinet Seawater Reverse Osmosis(SWRO) 100,000 m3/d[67] Tlemcen Souk Tleta 200,000 m3/day Tlemcen Hounaine 200,000 m3/day Beni Saf 200,000 m3/day Tenes 200,000 m3/day Fouka 120,000 m3/day Skikda 100,000 m3/day Hamma Seawater Desalination Plant 200,000 m3/day built by GE [68] Mostaganem, once considered the largest in Africa[69] Magtaa Reverse Osmosis (RO) Desalination Plant, Oran, Algeria Aruba[edit] The island of Aruba has a large (world’s largest at the time of its inauguration) desalination plant, with a total installed capacity of 11.1e6 US gallons (42,000 m3) per day.[70][dead link] Australia[edit] Main article: Seawater desalination in Australia The Millenium Drought (1997-2009) led to a water supply crisis across much of the country. As a result many desalination plants were built for the first time (see list). A combination of increased water usage and lower rainfall/drought in Australia caused state governments to turn to desalination, including the recently commissioned Kurnell Desalination Plant serving the Sydney area. While desalination helped secure water supplies, it is energy intensive (~$140/ML) and has a high carbon footprint due to Australia's coal-based energy supply.[citation needed] In 2010, a Seawater Greenhouse went into operation in Port Augusta.[71][72][73] Bahrain[edit] Completed in 2000, the Al Hidd Desalination Plant on Muharraq island employed a multistage flash process, and produces 272,760 m3 (9,632,000 cu ft) per day.[74] The Al Hidd distillate forwarding station provides 410 million liters of distillate water storage in a series of 45-million-liter steel tanks. A 135-million-liters/day forwarding pumping station sends flows to the Hidd, Muharraq, Hoora, Sanabis, and Seef blending stations, and which has an option for gravity supply for low flows to blending pumps and pumps which forward to Janusan, Budiya and Saar.[75] Upon completion of the third construction phase, the Durrat Al Bahrain seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant was planned to have a capacity of 36,000 cubic meters of potable water per day to serve the irrigation needs of the Durrat Al Bahrain development.[76] The Bahrain-based utility company, Energy Central Co contracted to design, build and operate the plant.[77] Chile[edit] Copiapó Desalination Plant[78] China[edit] China operates the Beijing Desalination Plant in Tianjin, a combination desalination and coal-fired power plant designed to alleviate Tianjin's critical water shortage. Though the facility has the capacity to produce 200,000 cubic meters of potable water per day, it has never operated at more than one-quarter capacity due to difficulties with local utility companies and an inadequate local infrastructure.[79] Cyprus[edit] A plant operates in Cyprus near the town of Larnaca.[80] The Dhekelia Desalination Plant uses the reverse osmosis system.[81] Egypt[edit] Dahab RO Desalination Plants Dahab 3,600 m3/day completed 1999 Hurgada and Sharm El-Sheikh Power and Desalination Plants Oyoun Moussa Power and Desalination Zaafarana Power and Desalination Gibraltar[edit] Fresh water in Gibraltar is supplied by a number of reverse osmosis and multistage flash desalination plants.[82] A demonstration forward osmosis desalination plant also operates there.[83] Grand Cayman[edit] West Bay, West Bay, Grand Cayman[84] Abel Castillo Water Works, Governor's Harbour, Grand Cayman[85] Britannia, Seven Mile Beach, Grand Cayman[86] Hong Kong[edit] The HK Water Supplies Department had pilot desalination plants in Tuen Mun and Ap Lei Chau using reverse osmosis technology. The production cost was at HK$7.8 to HK$8.4 /m3.[87][88] In 2011, the government announced a feasibility study whether to build a desalination plant in Tseung Kwan O.[89] Hong Kong used to have a desalination plant in Lok On Pai.[90] India[edit] The largest desalination plant in South Asia is the Minjur Desalination Plant near Chennai in India, which produces 36.5 million cubic meters of water per year.[91][92] A second plant at Nemmeli, Chennai is expected to reach full capacity of 100 million litres of sea-water per day in March 2013.[93] Iran[edit] An assumption is that around 400,000 m3/d of historic and newly installed capacity is operational in Iran.[94] In terms of technology, Iran’s existing desalination plants use a mix of thermal processes and RO. MSF is the most widely used thermal technology although MED and vapour compression (VC) also feature.[94] Israel[edit] Israel Desalination Enterprises’ Sorek Desalination Plant in Palmachim is to provide up to 26,000 m³ of potable water per hour (2.300 m³ p.a.). At full capacity, it will be the largest desalination plant of its kind in the world.[95] The Hadera seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant in Israel is the largest of its kind in the world.[96][97] The project was developed as a build–operate–transfer by a consortium of two Israeli companies: Shikun and Binui, and IDE Technologies.[98] Existing Israeli water desalination facilities[99] Location Opened Capacity (million m3/year) Cost of water (per m3) Notes Ashkelon August 2005 120 (as of 2010) NIS 2.60 [100] Palmachim May 2007 45 NIS 2.90 [101] Hadera December 2009 127 NIS 2.60 [102] Israeli water desalination facilities under construction Location Opening Capacity (million m3/year) Cost of water (per m3) Notes Ashdod 2013 100 (expansion up to 150 possible) NIS 2.40 [103] Soreq 2013 150 (expansion up to 300 approved) NIS 2.01 – 2.19 [104] Malta[edit] Ghar Lapsi II 50,000 m3/day[105] Oman[edit] A pilot seawater greenhouse was built in 2004 near Muscat, in collaboration with Sultan Qaboos University, providing a sustainable horticultural sector on the Batinah coast.[106] Ghubrah Power & Desalination Plant, Muscat Sohar Power & Desalination Plant, Sohar Sur R.O. Desalination Plant 80,000 m3/day 2009[107] Qarn Alam 1000 m3/day Wilayat Diba 2000 m3/day There are at least two forward osmosis plants operating in Oman Al Najdah 200 m3/day (built by Modern Water) [108] Al Khaluf[109] Saudi Arabia[edit] The Saline Water Conversion Corporation of Saudi Arabia provides 50% of the municipal water in the Kingdom, operates a number of desalination plants, and has contracted $1.892 billion [110] to a Japanese-South Korean consortium to build a new facility capable of producing a billion liters per day, opening at the end of 2013. They currently operate 32 plants in the Kingdom;[111] one example at Shoaiba cost $1.06 billion and produces 450 million liters per day.[112] Corniche RO Plant (Crop) (operated by SAWACO) Jubail 800,000 m3/day[113] North Obhor Plant (operated by SAWACO) Rabigh 7,000 m3/day (operated by wetico) planned for completion 2018 Rabigh II 600,000 m3/day (under construction Saline Water Conversion Corporation)[114] Shuaibah III 150,000 m3/day (operated by Doosan) South Jeddah Corniche Plant (SOJECO) (operated by SAWACO) Yanbu Multi Effect Distillation (MED), Saudi Arabia 68,190 m3/day South Africa[edit] Richards Bay Desalination Plant 100,000 m3/day Spain[edit] Lanzarote is the easternmost of the autonomous Canary Islands. It is the driest of the islands, of volcanic origin and has limited water supplies. A private, commercial desalination plant was installed in 1964. This served the whole island and enabled the tourism industry. In 1974, the venture was injected with investments from local and municipal governments and a larger infrastructure was put in place. In 1989, the Lanzarote Island Waters Consortium (INALSA)[115] was formed. A prototype seawater greenhouse was constructed in Tenerife in 1992.[116] Alicante II 65,000 m3/day (operator Inima) Tordera 60,000 m3/day Barcelona 200,000 m3/day (operator Degremont) El Prat, near Barcelona, a desalination plant completed in 2009 was meant to provide water to the Barcelona metropolitan area, especially during the periodic severe droughts that put the available amounts of drinking water under serious stress. Oropesa 50,000 m3/day (operator TECNICAS REUNIDAS) Moncofa 60,000 m3/day (operator Inima) Marina Baja - Mutxamel 50,000 m3/day (operator Degremont) Torrevieja 240,000 m3/day (operator ACCIONA) Cartagena Escombreras 63,000 m3/day (operator COBRA | TEDAGUA) Edam Ibiza + Edam San Antonio 25,000 m3/day (operator Ibiza - Portmany) Mazarron 36,000 m3/day (operator TEDAGUA) Bajo Almanzora 65,000 m3/day United Arab Emirates[edit] The Jebel Ali desalination plant in Dubai, a dual-purpose facility, uses multistage flash distillation and is capable of producing 300 million cubic meters of water per year[citation needed]. Kalba 15,000 m3/day built for Sharjah Electricity and Water Authority completed 2010(operator CH2MHill)[117] Khor Fakkan 22,500 m3/day (operator CH2MHill) Ghalilah RAK 68,000 m3/day (operator AQUATECH) Hamriyah 90,000 m3/day (operator AQUA Engineering) Taweelah A1 Power and Desalination Plant has an output 385,000,000 L (85,000,000 imp gal; 102,000,000 US gal) per day of clean water. Al Zawrah 27,000 m3/day (operator Aqua Engineering) Layyah I 22,500 m3/day (operator CH2MHill) Emayil & Saydiat Island ~20,000 m3/day (operator Aqua EPC) Umm Al Nar Desalination Plant has an output of 394,000,000 L (87,000,000 imp gal; 104,000,000 US gal)/day. Al Yasat Al Soghrih Island 2M gallons per day (GPD) or 9,000 m3/day Fujairah F2 is to be completed by July 2010 will have a water production capacity of 492,000,000 L (108,000,000 imp gal; 130,000,000 US gal) per day.[118] A seawater greenhouse was constructed on Al-Aryam Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates in 2000. United Kingdom[edit] The first large-scale plant in the United Kingdom, the Thames Water Desalination Plant, was built in Beckton, east London for Thames Water by Acciona Agua.[119] Jersey[edit] The desalination plant located near La Rosière, Corbiere, Jersey, is operated by Jersey Water. Built in 1970 in an abandoned quarry, it was the first in the British Isles. The original plant used a multistage flash (MSF) distillation process, whereby seawater was boiled under vacuum, evaporated and condensed into a freshwater distillate. In 1997, the MSF plant reached the end of its operational life and was replaced with a modern reverse osmosis plant. Its maximum power demand is 1,750 kW, and the output capacity is 6,000 cubic meters per day. Specific energy consumption is 6.8 kWh/m3.[120] United States[edit] Texas[edit] There are a dozen different desalination projects in the State of Texas, both for desalinating groundwater and desalinating seawater from the Gulf of Mexico.[121][122] El Paso[edit] Brackish groundwater has been treated at the El Paso, Texas, plant since around 2004. It produces 27,500,000 US gallons (104,000,000 l; 22,900,000 imp gal) of fresh water daily (about 25% of total freshwater deliveries) by reverse osmosis.[123] California[edit] Carlsbad[edit] The United States' largest desalination plant is being constructed by Poseidon Resources and is expected to go online 2016.[124] Santa Barbara[edit] The Charles Meyer Desalination Facility[125] was constructed in Santa Barbara, California, in 1991–92 as a temporary emergency water supply in response to severe drought. While it has a high operating cost, the facility only needs to operate infrequently, allowing Santa Barbara to use its other supplies more extensively. Florida[edit] Florida has five (5) water management districts. These are (North to South):[126] 1.Northwest Florida WMD [127] 2.Suwannee River WMD [128] 3.Saint Johns WMD [129] Provides map of districts. Serves Jacksonville to Vero Beach. 4.Southwest Florida WMD [130] 5.South Florida WMD [131] Serves Orlando. The St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD) provides a presentation (PDF) of the desalanation process.[132] As of 2012, South Florida has 33 brackish and two seawater desalination plants operating with seven brackish water plants under construction. The brackish and seawater desalination plants have the capacity to produce 245 million gallons of potable water per day.[133] Tampa Bay[edit] The Tampa Bay Water desalination project near Tampa, Florida, was originally a private venture led by Poseidon Resources, but it was delayed by the bankruptcy of Poseidon Resources' successive partners in the venture, Stone & Webster, then Covanta (formerly Ogden) and its principal subcontractor, Hydranautics. Stone & Webster declared bankruptcy June 2000. Covanta and Hydranautics joined in 2001, but Covanta failed to complete the construction bonding, and then the Tampa Bay Water agency purchased the project on May 15, 2002, underwriting the project. Tampa Bay Water then contracted with Covanta Tampa Construction, which produced a project that failed performance tests. After its parent went bankrupt, Covanta also filed for bankruptcy prior to performing renovations that would have satisfied contractual agreements. This resulted in nearly six months of litigation. In 2004, Tampa Bay Water hired a renovation team, American Water/Acciona Aqua, to bring the plant to its original, anticipated design. The plant was deemed fully operational in 2007,[36] and is designed to run at a maximum capacity of 25 million US gallons (95,000 m3) per day.[134] The plant can now produce up to 25 million US gallons (95,000 m3) per day when needed.[135] Arizona[edit] Yuma[edit] The desalination plant in Yuma, Arizona, was constructed under authority of the Federal Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974 to treat saline agricultural return flows from the Wellton-Mohawk Irrigation and Drainage District into the Colorado River. The treated water is intended for inclusion in water deliveries to Mexico, thereby keeping a like amount of freshwater in Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada. Construction of the plant was completed in 1992, and it has operated on two occasions since then. The plant has been maintained, but largely not operated due to sufficient freshwater supplies from the upper Colorado River.[136] An agreement was reached in April 2010 between the Southern Nevada Water Authority, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the Central Arizona Project, and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to underwrite the cost of running the plant in a year-long pilot project.[137] Trinidad and Tobago[edit] The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago uses desalination to open up more of the island's water supply for drinking purposes. The country's desalination plant, opened in March 2003, is considered to be the first of its kind. It was the largest desalination facility in the Americas, and it processes 28,800,000 US gallons (109,000 m3) of water a day at the price of $2.67 per 1,000 US gallons (3.8 m3).[138] This plant will be located at Trinidad's Point Lisas Industrial Estate, a park of more than 12 companies in various manufacturing and processing functions, and it will allow for easy access to water for both factories and residents in the country.[139]
So i take you are implying, by my bolded quote, that there is indeed, 'easy desalination'? You think desalination is a solution for dwindling groundwater, drought, & water lost by urbanization? You think it is a valid replacement for lost or unavailable surface water for crop irrigation, a necessary part of plentiful food? From what i understand, the problems of transmission outweigh the cost effectiveness, & the energy needed to do it offsets the benefit, except in rich areas, or high density populations near the coasts, for drinking water, not crop irrigation. Look again at this chart.. here is population growth, with no reason to think it will shrink. Food production will also reach a 'hubbert curve', where there are diminishing returns for improvements in methodology, technology, & mechanization. ..and with a dwindling energy supply, or one that is outlawed globally, even greater stresses on the food supply will result. I can see desalination as a solution for drinking water near dense population centers on the coasts, but not for irrigation, higher elevations, or distances inland. Mexico city can't solve it's water problem with desalination. Drinking water is perhaps the easiest thing to supply to humans. But once you begin to irrigate with it, difficulties ensue. The OP only briefly mentioned drinking water, as i don't see it as a critical issue, at the moment. Just like los angeles will sacrifice central valley crop land to ensure drinking water for the occupants of LA, we usually look for the easy fix, & don't see the long term consequences. A few years of drought.. some natural disasters.. war or civil unrest.. these things only make the problems worse. The earth's population is too big already, & getting bigger. The wealthier nations buy food & distribute it for free to the poorer nations, & they primarily do it with debt.. they borrow money to buy food to give away. At some point in the not too distant future, food shortages are very likely, & will create new global problems.. unrest, war, famine. These also exacerbate the problems, making them snowball.
Potable water is essential to life...to economy...soooo it really doesn't matter much does it if water supplies are 'easy' or not? It is obvious that we have no choice but to create potable water from whatever sources exist and this must include desalination. And since we today have critical water issues in some areas of the USA, then why not get started on creating more potable water and distribute it all across the nation? In CA even if these draught conditions disappear potable water still remains a critical issue due to constant population growth and development. Like it or not, a (*)(*)(*)(*) load of people and industry galore along with banking and finance and farming and the 8th largest economy in the world is located in the southwestern USA...CO, AZ, CA and others, and these areas remain some of the highest growth areas, so again what choice do we have but to provide potable water to every square inch of these areas? Seems to me this is the prime time for the USA to begin the largest civil project in it's history by creating thousands more dams and reservoirs, desalination, and canal/pipeline distribution of the water, preparing the USA for the next 100-200 years, allowing rural development, economic growth, and millions of sustainable middle-class jobs...
Finally I don't see any long term solution without turning around population growth. As to the subject of desalination here is a concise but information rich discussion of the matter by somebody who seems to know what he is talking about. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-dont-we-get-our-drinking-water-from-the-ocean/ The Pacific Institute seems to be an informed site for learning about water issues in general. It is California based and so that's where a lot of the examples lie but the issues are worldwide. http://www.pacinst.org/
It can cost from just under $1 to well over $2 to produce one cubic meter (264 gallons) of desalted water from the ocean. That's about as much as two people in the U.S. typically go through in a day at home. $1 to $2 per day is only $365 to $730 per year...this seems like a reasonable price to acquire something which is essential to life. 13,000 desalination plants around the world...it's a start...a supplement. The bigger question to ask is what happens to the areas around these 13,000 desalination plants if the plants did not exist? It seems illogical to me that we can be without potable water yet have the Earth covered in oceans. IMO short of some huge human extinction event, it is unlikely that population growth can be greatly reduced. And while it took a long time to achieve 1 billion people on Earth, it now takes a very short time to achieve another 1 billion! And this time will grow shorter and shorter assuming the masses can exist. Graph population growth against any of our resources and the trends are not favorable...
The document on the desalination is here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desalination I can't foresee all flow of the water resource. But higher moisture would effect to the center of the continent by the rain. The effort over time brings the answer for us.
I agree completely with your later analysis, but do not see desalination as a practical solution. It is not practical for irrigation, nor elevated or inland areas. Even the costs you present are not practical for millions living in poverty, where $1-2/day is all they have for everything. I'm looking at the problems from a global perspective, here, not sitting on adirondack chairs overlooking a prosperous green valley in america. Perhaps an albatross will lead us from the certain doom we are in. Perhaps we will discover another cheap, easy energy system. But i'm dealing with reality, not hope. I do not see politicians being much help for solutions. They tend to lie & promote a selfish agenda, & distort science & reality for their cause or cronies. 1. The earth's human population is growing exponentially. 2. There is not enough food production to meet the demand. 3. Water & arable land is depleting, & cannot grow to meet the demand. 4. Energy supplies are depleting, as oil reserves are used up, & a 'hubbert curve' is reached. Global warming, taking thousands of years, is the least of our worries, as a species on this planet. We will overpopulate the globe & strip it of all resources long before the next ice age or major climate cycle. Political mandates against the use of cheap energy supplies, like fossil fuels, only makes the impending famine worse. We now ship tons of food, which exist ONLY because of cheap fossil fuel, to regions that CANNOT support themselves. The continent of africa is on a downward spiral, with the population outpacing arable land, water, energy, & management responsibility . Why do we use our finite resources of energy to COMPOUND the problems of overpopulation? We overextend production of food in high production areas, depleting precious groundwater & shrinking energy sources. For what? To make overpopulation WORSE! 1. Regions of the globe have populations that exceed their ability to provide the basic needs. 2. Regions with abundance ship food to those in need, as humanitarian aid. 3. Energy was used, both in the production & transport of this aid. 4. The result of the aid is a breeding ground.. even more increasing population, making the situation worse & increasing demand. 5. More energy & aid will be needed, creating a vicious circle. Water, water, every where, And all the boards did shrink; Water, water, every where, Nor any drop to drink. ... He went like one that hath been stunned, And is of sense forlorn: A sadder and a wiser man, He rose the morrow morn.
Fortunately for you (and me!) we live in a land of plenty, with lots of arable land, water, & resources. Our population, though growing, is more stable than many regions in the world, & is theoretically sustainable. Now, if you double or triple our population, & take away more arable land, & divert more water from crops, then the dynamics change & our outlook would not be so rosy. We have other factors in america.. political & economic ones. The currency is in trouble, with massive QEs & deficit spending. Farming is tricky.. mostly those who inherit land are the ones to do it.. few can buy some land & make a living from farming. The groundwater is depleting rapidly in some areas.. there will be massive crop failures if (and when) the groundwater runs out. A few years of drought, & other areas will also sustain crop failures or severe depletion. There is a political war against fossil fuels, which is the only means of modern, productive farming. IOW, many structural problems for continued prosperity seem to be looming. We cannot 'print' food. Some years of drought, severe weather, civil unrest, state mandates... many things can change food production in america. And if america has shortages, the world will be hungry. The same is true in other areas of high food production. Brazil, russia, china.. these have been growing in production, but the same pressures face them: arable land & water. I agree. IMO, the BIGGEST problem in the world today is over population. It is stretching our resources & stressing all the other things. Unfortunately, it is self regulatory, but it will be famine or war that will do it. Most of the developed nations are stable in their populations.. it is the developing nations that are exploding in growth. Sending them food only worsens the problem, as you provide a breeding ground. Shipping them to the developed nations is not a good solution, either. You punish the responsible residents of earth by piling more dependents on them. Plus, the breeders only accelerate the population growth in the new area, & bring their problems with them. The only lasting solution is to find someway to check the exploding populations in the developing countries. I don't know how to do that. Some have suggested sterilization as a condition for receiving humanitarian aid. But that smacks of eugenics, so has not gained traction. All i know is the present course is not sustainable.
Fact is we only have so much to work with on Earth. If we are depleting our potable water supplies then we either perish or find ways to create potable water...no matter the technology and costs. Just as solar electric won't power 100% of Earth desalination will not provide 100% of the water we need. But is it wise to ignore solar and desalination when we have energy and water shortages? Regarding arable land...there's plenty of it to last a long time. We have unused land all over the place which can grow food...let's start with the front and back yard of every home. Why can't most all trees in all public spaces provide food? People who live in concrete cities place raised beds on the asphalt and grow all the food they want. Yes population growth is a huge issue and it might be the #1 issue going forward but asking the natives to keep it zipped is not going to work. IMO there are great opportunities just waiting for us all of which sustains life and boosts the economy...and it doesn't require a rocket scientist to understand how we can do better...
The problem isn't in suburban america.. food & water are both plentiful & cheap, along with their energy. Population is fairly stable.. a small growth rate, comparatively. Africa is the main problem. here are some of the facts from the OP: According to land use experts, there is not 'plenty of arable land to last a long time'. Nor is there plenty of water.. especially irrigation water. But of course, you are right. Asking the natives to restrain their reproductive urges will not work. But they are the main offenders in the explosion of population. The wonders of australian desalination effect a miniscule percent of the global population. California, too. We are headed for increasing global problems with food, energy, & population, & the interrelation of those factors. We can ignore it, or distract (look! a squirrel), but they are not going away. AGW is a pesky fly at best, while over population is a tyrannosaurus.
