Question about peak time predictions

I've seen a few predictions about when certain areas will hit their peak of infections. For example, yesterday AR governor Hutchinson said 4 to 6 weeks, this morning I read New York will be 22 to 32 days, and these are if everyone follows the stay at home rule.

So if people were practicing social distancing, staying home, everything is closed, and incubation time if 2 to 14 days, with 4 days being the common, why would it take weeks to hit peak? AR gov's peak prediction is up to 6 weeks. The timing doesn't quite make sense. Anyone offer any insight into this?

 

Normally we would be one country governed by one man, the president. But he doesn't know how to do that so we are 50 states governed by 50 governors and in turn you will get 50 different reactions because of there being 50 people with different thoughts and opinions. Thank god the governors are able to step up. Think how really screwed up things would be if the responsibility of governing fell to the city and town mayors.

 

You didn't answer me, you just went on a Trump rant. Nice.

 

You seem to be upset that Trump hasn't turned the country into Fascist Germany......you seem to ignore the fact we are a Republic not a Democracy. We have a Constitution and a 10th Amendment. The Federal Government isn't responsible for every little thing....that falls on state and local government. Trump isn't responsible for wiping your ass.

 

The fact we are a Republic is an advantage. What is good for NJ may not be good for Alaska.

 

If you opened your eyes you would see that I'm upset that trump is attempting to turn our country into Fascist Germany. I'm grateful he hasn't succeeded.

 

Most places are on Lockdown until (at least) Mid-April.

I guess we really won't know until we see a peak and then leveling off.

I would be happy if things could be back to normal by Mid-July.

Even though, anything is possible and it could be 12-18 Months.

 

So you have no clue about states rights in the constitution

 

No, like a good democrat you will hate Trump no matter what he does just like your leaders in the democrat party do

 

If I despised a man when he was nothing more than a crook, why would I change my opinion of him just because a bunch of people who didn't know him as well voted him to be the president of the United States

 

You chose to respond to my question with nothing but anti-Trump ranting. Do you not see your own hysteria?

 

I'm not clear what element you're unclear on. Not everybody can or will practice flawless infection prevention and so the virus can and will still spread, though slower than it would have done under normal circumstances. The timeline is because not everyone will get infected at the same time. Patient zero might pass on the infection after a week, those patients pass it one after another week and so on. There are obviously all sorts of complications but that's basically why it will take time to peak.

 

Doing the social isolation will extend the time of our precautions for the advantage slowing down the peak of illness. Overall, though, the overall severe illness may not be reduced substantially but tye extended times will save lives.

However, despite out President's lies about there being plenty of test kits, until we have enough testing kits, we aren't really know when the peak and reduction will be until its done.

But 25% of people are exposed because they have to go out and others get exposed by those family members who were home, and other hundreds of other ways, and people are certainly not exposed "reliably", they get exposed willy-nilly by a touch, something touched two hours ago, sneezing, lots other things we don't know these routes yet. Another issue is having does getting well ends the possible getting it again and infecting others, aside from being seriously ill (again).

Easily, precautions could be important until the end of the year. But desperate people who need food and medicine and work can't wait that long, just like many can't wait now. Assuming we get a survival payment or two, will this Congress do a third or 4th, etc? Hell, no....

Hell hasn't even started, yet, talks like "6 weeks" is a fantasy.