Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.6%, 3rd Quarter 2022

Source; Bureau of Economic Analysis

4th Quarter 21; +6.9%
1st Quarter 22; -1.6%
2nd Quarter 22; -0.6%
3rd Quarter 22; +2.6%

Question; Were the decline in GDP in the 1st and 2nd Quarter of this year an NBER Recession?

Answer; NBER has yet to make a decision.

IMO, unlikely.

 

In addition to the above, and according to BEA, the increase in the 3rd Quarter reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, non-residential fixed investments, Federal, State and Local government spending.

Exports…..Notably Petroleum and Products

 

Please spell out your acronyms. NBER? BEA? Without knowledge of who you're talking about, you post makes little sense. Also, a link or two is warranted.

Thanks.

 

I don't care whether you call it a recession or not. Inflation and the lack of being able to find anyone to do physical labor is a major problem.

 

Do you really want the federal government to step in to solve a shortage problem of physical labor? The economy is pretty much at full employment with a 3.7% unemployment rate. The only solution for the fed would be to increase immigration or shift jobs from other areas. I would not like to see an increase in immigration to address a physical labor need. Causing unemployment and increasing interest rate is also another policy I have been against. So what would you expect the federal government to do? Don't you think this is better off in the hands of the market rather than the politicians?

 

and a recession is expected to hit in 2023 regardless.

 

If government had kept its hands off the economy, we would still be like we were in 2019, a pretty good year. Maybe even better.

 

For you info, beginning 2023, my ex-oil&gas employer want to increase their rig count by 30%, however, their drilling/servicing companies can’t find the needed/qualified workers.

 

You may be right.

 

I don't doubt those things are true BUT those should be business problems NOT federal government problems. As I said earlier, other than increasing immigration or causing shifts in employees from one sector to another what else can the Fed do when we are at full employment. What policy is it you want from the federal government?

 

We do not have full unemployment. The labor participation rate is a full percent lower than it was before the pandemic. That is on the order of about two million people who are not bothering to look for work even though there is work available.

The low unemployment rate is fiction. It is only because unemployed people are not looking for work.

 

I’ve always been a pro high employment rate versus a low unemployment rate. In other words, I rather have a 63% employment rate and a 5.7% unemployment rate VERSUS a 61% employment rate and a 3.7% unemployment rate.

Thus, I do advocate a significant increase of foreign skilled workers.

 

Full employment traditionally means an unemployment rate below 4%. I cannot argue labor participation rate with you unless you want to present so statistics on why you think it is problematic. Just because it is higher is not necessarily a bad thing. We have an aging population so maybe people are retiring. Maybe others are choosing to return to school to increase their skill set because there is so much demand for skilled labor.

 

We have never seen a situation like this where there was plenty of work available but a large part of the population who will not work.

 

I support legal immigration using a reasonable model where we admit skilled labor in areas of great need. The poster was talking about physical labor which I take to be generally unskilled.

 

Maybe it is called the baby boomer problem. Did we not see this coming?

 

Yeah the selling off of the strategic reserve to bidens pals on China. Now set that against a year over in rease in inflation of 8% and higher rates in food stuff and the increase in consumer spending looks pretty damn paltry.

 

The 3.7% percent with a worker participation rate still in the very low sixties is not much more than a bad joke.

 

It does not suddenly occur. It happens gradually over time.

My wife and I are in our eighties. I am at the point where I cannot do a lot of chores around the house. We need some trees cut down and trimmed to keep from falling on the house. We requested a tree surgeon to do the work six months ago. Normally, he would show up in a week or two.

Our relatively new car developed an oil leak. I tried to make an appointment with a new car dealer for repair. I made the appointment for the first week in December two weeks ago. He cannot get enough helpers.

I had a dish washer which would need repair. He would not be able to get here in over three weeks. I finally figured out how to fix it myself.

I have a year old Side by Side UTV still under warranty which needs repair. It has been at the dealer for nearly three weeks because he cannot find anyone to work.

The US has gone to crap since Biden took office.

 

I addressed the participation issue. No one has shown why this is a problem yet. As I said earlier a low participation rate in the work force is not necessarily a bad thing. It could mean people are retiring, returning to school or simply pursuing their own hustle. We have a larger retirement population than any other time in the nation's history.

 

I asked you in the very first reply to you. What policy can Biden or any federal government do to get more people into these physical jobs? All the government can do is try to create jobs. It is not their job to force people who do not want to work into the workforce. You are a member of the non participating work force. Do you want Biden trying to force yourself or your wife into the workforce?

 

For one thing, they can quit lying and trying to convince us how great the economy is. You can't fix a problem until you acknowledge that you have a problem.

People will work when they have to work. Paying people to not to work, no matter how small the amount allows them to get along without working.

The college debt forgiveness program was the worse idea ever. It you want to give money away, give it to someone who wants to start a business.

 

I’ve never understood the record low unemployment rate fanatics……

In good economical times, the merit-based immigration countries have surpassed the U.S. employment rate by at least 2%, and their unemployment rates were not at record lows.

 

I totally agree regarding the college debt problem but none of what you mentioned will cause any dent in the problem. IMO this is a major part of the problem. People like to bitch and complain but they have no idea how to solve the issue. While I will concede that labor shortages are an issue and it impact our industry greatly too, it is up to business not government to fix those problems. Unlike you I do not trust politicians like Biden or Trump to fix those problems because anything they do is just cosmetic window dressing.

Look at the inflation problem. There have been a ton of threads with people complaining about inflation but few offer up any type of realistic policy positions. In the one thread that asked for policy ideas I stated that raising interest rates was a bad idea. I gave may policy ideas but few did beyond the drill baby drill theme which would have minimal impact.

 

Merritt based immigration is reasonable if it is properly managed. At our company we hire many programmers and engineers with H1B visas. The problem is the uncontrolled immigration which has plagued the US for decades.