Rebel offensive in Syria gains ground as Russian military presence fades.

Yes, that's the story.

 

The HTS leader is a former Al Qaeda, Iraqi resistance Palestinian refugee. He knows that some countries are itching for a reason to bomb the **** out of Syria - not that they need one - they might do it anyway.

But he obviously knows everyone is watching and he is going out of his way to reduce bloodshed. His orders include an amnesty to all soldiers who put down their arms. He ordered his soldiers not to chase or shoot at fleeing soldiers or units. He has said that there will be no revenge. Not looting has been reported.

Even the U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces are behaving themselves.

What seems detached from reality and bizarre was your statement.

 

True but there will be of lot mid level to high level diplomats/foreign affairs officials, intelligence operatives and even finance and banking officials with 'info'. If I was a senior official in the security services and to a slightly lesser extent the military? I'd have packed my bags and driven to Jordan 48 hours ago.

 

The mid-level people might survive depending on occupation. I don't imagine the new folks brought too many bureacrats with them and someone will need to follow orders. Not sure how much they will trust the intel people, especially the Air Force ones. That was the service Hafez Assad came from & it was the most loyal (& feared) part of the regime. If those folks are smart they will have done a runner.

 

Good . the no illusions part .. as the world - and the ICC/UN - have yet to sort out by far the worst genocide - crime against humanity 500,000 dead civilians.. and that's the documented number .. actual is obviously much higher. The worst of the worst Evil -- the destruction of history .. this Islamic State nutbars going around destroying ancient sites .. a demonstration of mindless animal behavior the likes of which not seen since Pol Pot .. Pavelic ... until the Gaza Holocaust..

Do you watch Democracy Now Seth ? .. is a good one .. Amy Goodman .. is supposed to be the Great hero of every liberal on the planet .. but there are no classical liberals anymore .. but I digress.

This new resurrected Islamic State JV-Team is all of the above .. but way way different in terms of who is in external control (Turkey plus ??) The rebels are completely disciplined .. no wanton destruction .. looting .. rape and typical behavior. .. Al Qaeda rebranded .. and it is Orwellian as Hell

The political ramifications of the creation of a new Islamic State .. a new caliphate .. in Syria .. legitimate and recognized .. is a horror on the face of humanity .. for every person but the Salafi Islamists in Syria .. far worse than Saudi Arabia .. which itself is a Horror on the face of humanity .. The difference here is that there are no Christians - Jews - other minorities living in Saudi Arabia to be persecuted by that horror.

Do you have any idea the massive rights and freedoms enjoyed by the "Shining Star" of liberty and Freedom in the ME -- in a Muslim Nation .. the TEMPLATE .. to what Muslim Nations should aspire .. liberal democracy !

The factions ? all coalesced into the Islamic State .. ISIS and Al Qaeda running the show .. each occupying different regions .. and a couple other smaller factions .. This new reconstitution is something different organizationally .. I don't think there is a faction problem .. at least not in the beginning .. ..down the road perhaps . but .. these clucks have a new Islamic State .. the dream has been realized .. should this actually be happening .. that IS will be replacing Assad as it appears.

 

Russia kicking Assad to the Curb has little to no effect on the Ukraine war .. Iran and Hezbollah are the ones with contorted faces ( your board assessment skills remain very poor) .. the big question is how this will affect the conflict in Israel .. Ukraine does not factor into the equation .. Land for Peace negotiations already under way will not be affected by Assads removal.

 

Yep! Let's hope Syrian rebels take example from other rebels, they will lead Syria to victory, the same as Hamas leads Gaza to victory or Hizbollah leads Lebanon to victory or whoever rules Libya leads Libya to victory.

 

Wow! You sound like someone who does not believe that Islam is religion of peace!

 

Turkey will regain control over the Syrian provinces that are historically part of Turkey - Idlib, Aleppo, and Northeastern Syria - before they were lopped off by France and Britain after WW I.

The rest will become an Islamist state.

 

Turkey is also islamist but I understand what you are saying

 

I wonder whether Erdogan and Putin have done a deal to allow Latakia and Tartus provinces to continue as autonomous Alawite regions. Most of the Alawite population lives in those areas. They have not yet been attacked by the Sunni rebel forces.

 

Maybe. But at this point Putin hasn't been able to support Syria at all since the sanctions and the war in Ukraine keeping them busy.

 

You are confusing the religion of Islam with the political ideology and beliefs of the Islamist ... not understanding the difference between 1) having a belief .. and 2) forcing that belief on others through physical violence (Law) -- the difference between "Secularism" and Sectarianism / Theocratic Fascism

For example - If some person shows applying for citizenship in USA wearing a Halloween Costume .. in mid July .. .. and would I be King for a Day .. no way .. no way .. get out .. and go the other way .. and don't try another day.

WHY ? .. what is your justification .. are you "racist" .. "bigot" .. "discrimination based on religion" .. No friend .. None of the above .. has nothing to do with religion or race .. and everything to do with the sign on their forehead saying " I hate the founding Principle" = respect for the essential liberty of others .. and the constitutional republic .. founded in the founding principle .. the foundation on which Jesus based his Ministry .. and good for him .. but Hammurabi had this principle delivered down from the heavens prior to Jesus .. Buddha .. and Confucius .. and of course the enlightenment thinkers and dualist founding fathers.

Understanding the difference between A) Having a belief .. and B) forcing that belief on others through physical violence .. in the context of the "Golden Rule"

If you don't want others forcing their wonky religious beliefs on you through physical violence then do not do this to others. Or .. in the words of the Great Rabbi Hillel -- and Teacher of Jesus --- when asked to sum up the Torah while standing on one foot say - "Don't do to others what you hate - the rest is all commentary - now go and Learn"

and they did .. Learn .. the enlightenment thinkers .. the founding fathers .. and based a nation on this simple.. principle .. that if you don't share .. or get .. then "NO SOUP FOR YOU" .. compre vous ?

The Islamist wishes to force Strict Sharia on others through physical violence Law .. having no respect for essential liberty .. not all of Islam are Islamists.

 

Yes, the situation is hardly over.
- Country still split between Latakia, Tartus province. HTS which came from the north down to Damascus. FSA which came from the south up to Damascus. SNA which controls north western Syria. And the Kurds who control all Syria east of the Euphrates.
- Its going to be are the warlords willing to give up power like HTS's Jolani or any of the faction leaders.
- Is FSA, HTS and SNA going to end up in a power struggle. SNA is still planning to go after SDF(Kurds).
- The Kurds still control eastern Syria and the Oil fields there, which might be ok but any autonomy by them will be seen as a threat to Turkey.
- Will we get an new Afghani Islamic law ruled country? Will it end up like Lybia where different parties get fifes they control autonomously? Or the most unlikely all parties can unite with all their differences religous/cultural/tribal.

Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali is supposed to lead the transition according to HTS.

Problem is that Julani only represents a certain portion and territory of the whole as stated above.

 

Once we find out what happens to the area where the Russians are stationed in Syria we will have a better idea of the effect on the Ukraine war. If they are kicked out or withdraw all assets there would certainly be redirected to be used in Ukraine. Maybe they come to an agreement to stay in Syria, who knows, I would not think so.

 

Compared with the scale of the Ukraine war, the Russian assets in Syria are pretty small. The naval assets would not be of much use in Ukraine. I've seen reports that the air assets have already been partly withdrawn.

If they stay, it will either depend on a deal between Turkey and Russia, and/or the Alawite fighters defending the Alawite homeland. Hezbollah also had withdrawn some fighters to Lebanon to engage Israel. Remaining Hezbollah fighters withdrew toward the Alawite areas or to the northeastern Shiite part of Lebanon.

 

LOL

Russian propaganda remains as screwy and Orwellian as ever, I see.

 

Il76 disappeared from radar shortly after taking off from Damascus Airport....Assad may have been on board!

 

Russia backed Assad’s narco state because they needed the port for their Navy. This has weakened Russia severely with their fight in Northern Africa.

 

The base in Syria is not going to effect things in Ukraine much either way .. What we may see is a political effect. Like Kosovo (violation of international Law - Sovereignty) ..now we have Turkey (and likely others) but at least one NATO nation .. violating international sovereignty .. So crying boo at Russia .. while sitting back and saying / doing nothing about this egregious violation can only play in Russia's favor politically .. unfortunately by way of further degradation of the international order .. respect for international law .. and so on.

Do as we say not as we do foreign policy is all good until other's start doing as we do.

As far as the political situation in Syria .. its wide open at this point .. do we have a new Islamic State .. ...and if so who are going to be the allies ?? .. this has blown a big hole in the Middle east power vacuum .. and the Universe hates no vacuum more than a power vacuum.

 

Could be .. should they lose that port .. which may or may not case at this point.... There were also other big reasons for Russia backing Syria .. than just the port .. similar to their relationship with Iran.

 

Yep, I saw that in a video a bit ago. I don't know about the crash rumor, but I suppose it switched off the transponder to get in and out quietly.

Classic toppled dictator move, and how he can presumably go occupy a dacha next door to Yanukovych I wonder if Snowden does their IT

 

The Turks are already exerting control over the Kurdish areas through the "Syrian National Army", which they sponsor.

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-says-there-is-a-new-reality-in-syria-203397

Since Turkey and Qatar seem to be in this up to their eyeballs, the Libyan result seems quite possible. Or the Sykes Picot agreement gets undone by a Yugoslavia-like solution.

 

The consortium seems awfully quiet on here at the moment.


Damascus in 3 days must've had something to do with it.

 

So far, it just seems they didn't have the means or the will to put up much of a fight, and they probably underestimated what was happening in Syria when the offensive started as well. I don't know if anyone foresaw this.