Reid expects Tea Party to fade away

And as long as he's in charge of the Senate, he prolly can block fiscal conservatism.
But he'll be minority leader in 2013.

As far as the TP fading? Not a chance.

 

Considering that the Tea Party is at such an ideological and policy-based divide with the leaders of their party, I would expect the movement and the politicians to become disgruntled, and establish a third party. If that happens, that will be the end of the Tea Party as we know it. The Tea Party will be a political fringe group of the Republican party if they remain committed to their current ideology and policy. If they start to compromise with the leadership of their party, their voice within the political landscape in Washington will escalate.

 

What is far more likely is that the TEA Party will elect replacements for their leadership.

 

amazing misunderstandings of the Tea Party continue on:

what is most likely to happen is exactly what is happening now - the Tea Party organizations and participants will gain more and more influence in the Republican party.

the historical analogy is to the Free Soil Movement and the Republican party in the 1850's.

 

You stole the words out of my mouth. I was about to state that if the Tea Party is dissatisfied with their leadership due to one or more of the following:

1. Lack of fulfillment of the goals of the grassroots movement
2. Compromise with the mainstream Republican Party
3. Remain a fringe group within Congress

they will re-elect their leadership.

 

They will NOT form a third party. They know better than that.
They will continue to be a force that's growing. You're scared. You know it, and I know it.

 

The Free Soil Movement began as a third party. When the party dissolved, values and ideology of were adopted by the Republican Party. This has always been the case with populist movements such as the Tea Party.

Lets go through some third parties and who adopted their values and ideology:

Free-Soil Party: adopted by Republicans
Populist Party: some values adopted by the Progressives and eventually the Democrats.
Progressive Party (Bull-Moose Party): adopted by Democrats

The Tea Party is trying to take a different route by staying within the Republcan party, hoping that the leadership will start to adopt their values and ideology. From what I have seen of Congressional debates, there has been no willingness from Mr.Boehner and company to acknowledge the Tea Party politicians as legitimate.

 

The TEA Party will re-elect the leadership of the Republican Party. The proclamations of the demise of the TEA Party are laughable propaganda suitable for Tokyo Rose.

We'll see what meets its demise. It won't be the TEA Party.

 

The grassroots movement could grow by 5 times over the next few years, and the politicians it would elect in time and time again would be ignored by Republican leadership.

 

If that happens the Tea Party will get bigger and will take away the monopoly the DEMS and GOP have enjoyed.

 

The only two options I see is that it fades out of sight completely or takes over the Republican party.

 

the Free Soil movement of the 1840's was just that - a movement. it had adherents in both the Whig and the Democrat party. In the 1850's, the newly formed GOP Republican party essentially absorbed the Free Soilers from both the Whig and the Democrat side, essentially killing the Whigs and isolating the Democrats. Democrats on their part absorbed the Southern Whigs further isolating themselves.

IMO this is a better analogy than the progressives or the populists of the late 19th century, since they were active in both the GOP and the Democratic parties.

In the end, the Republican party will capture the overwhelming % of the Tea Party which will coalesce with several of the factions within the Republican party.

 

I disagree with that premise. The Tea Party movement was born from people like McConnell, Norquist and Ailes vowing that Obama will never be able to govern this country as a Democrat. If the issue hadn't been government spending, it would have been abortion, guns, gays or global warming. FOTM is, Obama's spending has been a direct result of the Bush administration financing (or lack thereof) of tax cuts and two hugely expensive wars, and their refusal to offset the spending. It's time for Republicans to hit the bricks.

 

I have stated this time and time again, the grassroots movement of the Tea Party can grow by 5 times over the next few years, and the respresentation it would have would always be disregarded.

Furthermore, as of April of 2010, there were approximately 67,000 people that identified with the Tea Party. Of course, this number has increased, but the people who identify with the Tea Party is much lower than the people who identify with the Republican or Democratic Party.

The following is a map from April 2010 on Tea Party members:

 

The problem is if given a choice of tea party and GOP you may get very different results. I am an independent conservative yet I support the tea party. I think the the tea party is bigger than most realize

 

you are correct, this is especially true given the fact that the Tea Party is not an organized party.

 

It's laughable that people like you constantly attempt to marginalize something which is supposedly so small, but which is driving the debate at this time.

Perhaps your progaganda should be consistent with your behaviours.

 

And the tea party expects Reid to fade away.

 

The Tea Party has a voice larger that its grassroots representation. However, I'm certain that during an election, the voice of the Tea Party will make no difference on who the majority of the population votes for. In an election, demographics is a primary factor , ideology and policy is secondary.

 

This summer was rather uneventful as far as t-party rallies go.
Support for the t-party continues to erode.

I guess that it's possible that once the election season heats up and the corporations start busing people into t-party rallies again, support will grow. However, all polls point to the fact that Americans are tired of the tea-flavored Kool-Aid that just takes the same ol' Republican Kool-Aid and tries to repackage it under a new label.

 

The R leadership will get on board or be replaced in primaries.

 

Not a chance? How is the Reform Party doing?

Seems to me your claim is not rooted in past experiences. A scant 17 years ago you have a party that actually put forth a candidate who garnered some votes. They have faded into utter obscurity.

So claiming that the tea party will not fade away because, well, you said so does not seem to be a statement with some wisdom behind it.

 

According to a recent NY Times/CNN poll, about 40 percent disapprove of the Tea Party movement, 20 percent disapprove of it, and 18 percent have no opinion.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/08/05/us/politics/20110805_Poll-docs.html?ref=politics

Poll question #31 asks about the Tea Party.

 

Speculation. You got any cites to back that up?

 

Irony, thy name is Trinnity's post.