@Statistikhengst @perotista https://www.huffpost.com/entry/robert-f-kennedy-jr-poll-independent-trump_n_652fa3e0e4b03b213b07da04 I checked the polling methodology and it appears to be sound. https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-co...Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables-2024_202310131239.pdf Given the above we now have a GLIMPSE into how Independents are shaping up for 2024. RFKjr is a polarizing nutcase but his APPEAL to the extreme right seems to be resonating. If we assume that BOTH Biden and Inmate P01355809 lost Independents EQUALLY to RFKjr then that ADDITIONAL 6% has to have come from EITHER the core GOP base OR the right leaning Independents. Not enough info to go on but you might see something here that I am missing. Whichever that is we can still agree that this poll is evidence that Independents do NOT want a 2020 rematch.
Independents are fed up with both sides of the political spectrum and have been for a while. The issue though is our duopoly has set up the system so that it will be very difficult to elect someone not backed by either the RNC or the DNC which forces people to vote for someone they dislike to prevent someone they hate — this is easily visible with the Biden administration. We need to eliminate FPTP voting and move to some type of ranked choice. Also the electoral college needs to be completely abolished.
Electoral college needs to stay. Removing it is just ruling by mob. This is not one giant state, it is a nation of multiple states. Each state is part of a union, so each each state should be represented as more than just the sum of it's population. Nobody had a problem with the electoral college really until Trump was elected, but his election was not a symptom of a problem, it was the system working exactly as intended. We also need to have a more diverse political field and more than just an R and a D to choose from. I welcome 3rd party candidates, even if a guy like Kennedy who is just some anti-science nutjob isn't someone I would ever vote for. But I don't have to like him to consider what he is as a third party candidate to be important.
Interesting, probably true since I hear the Republicans are preparing a bunch of negative attack ads on RFK Jr. There is another poll which shows – Trump 33%, Biden 31%, RFK Jr. 14%, 9% would not vote, 13% not sure. RFK Jr could draw one in seven US voters in 2024 presidential election, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rf...residential-election-reutersipsos-2023-10-05/ The problem with all the RCP polling average is that they just give two choices, Biden and or Trump. They don’t include other or third party or the will not vote column. I think the poll you posted and this one from Reuters/IPSOS are more accurate as far as they go. They show the deep desire of the voting public, all Americans for candidates other than Trump or Biden. 14% or 16% isn’t bad considering RFK Jr. has yet to run his first political ad. Keep in mind if there are presidential debates, 15% is the cut off to be included. Although I’m sure the bipartisan debate commission which raised the bar from 10% to 15% when Johnson was flirting with the 10% mark a couple of month prior to the 2016 election that they probably would raise the bar to 20%.
Ranked choice is definitely the way to go. It works great here in Maine. Many do not want it because it will doom the two party system. Good riddance, I say.
Then there is the possibility that Inmate P01355809 is BEHIND bars which could restrict debates to prison visiting hours. Toss in Joe Manchin and we have a party of 4 a the round table. I heard Biden speaking from the heart yesterday, like him or not, the man is genuine in his beliefs. He came across as coherent and with as good a grasp on the situation as it gets right now.
Well, when the Ultra MAGAs on this forum stop humping RFK Jr's leg, we'll know for sure. In the interim, slow and steady Joe with a working moral compass is the man for the job.
Doesn't matter who heard him, what he said about support that would be contingent on a Two State solution matters. Essentially that is the new US Middle East policy. Smart because it has the approval of the neighboring states and because there is now a majority moderate Israeli electorate who probably also support it. Might end up being one of more notable moments of his administration,
It's refreshing to be able to actually agree with you about something, for that is rare. Good thread, valid information (as far as I can tell), and it does point out that many Conservatives, myself included, do not (NOT) want Trump to be in this next presidential race! Trump was a "port in a storm" back in 2016, when we were threatened with the very real possibility of Hillary Clinton and her minions being installed in the White House. At a critical point in time Trump rescued us temporarily from the worse aspects of an "Obama 2.0", but for a variety of reasons we ended up with Obama 2.0 anyway, now in the malignant form of Geriatric Joe and his back-office handlers. Anyway, Trump had his chance but there was just too much he either left undone, or done poorly. Going forward, I'm still hoping for a near-impossible synthesis of John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan -- but definitely not Trump or any more of this current inept Biden idiocy....
Sparkly little disagreements with grownups here is worthwhile I think, much moreso than the tit-for-tat arguments that go on so regularly among us. I respectfully have to object to your philosophical buy-in that the EC works as the kids who wrote the Constitution had hoped it would.
Good to know that we have some common ground on which to build. Says volumes that RFKjr is now a magnet for some of those who formerly supported the Golden Coif. Would you mind sharing what it is about RFKjr that you find worthy of your vote in 2024?
The EC has become a tool to DISENFRANCHISE the majority of the Electorate. When the GOP loses 6 out of 7 Popular Votes but STILL ends up in the Oval office 50% of the time the EC is broken beyond any salvage IMO.
Looks like MAGA is afraid of this thread? I wonder if they were only behind RFK Jr because the "wish" is that he was going to hurt Dark Brandon?! Now that it might also be Trump in the RFK wake, they are "mum"?
Apparently the Khaos-Kaw-Kuss is too preoccupied with the Sky Falling to send out "Blame da Dems" emails and texts to explain why their Golden Coif is now LOSING to Dark Brandon.
If any candidate can be described as a "mixed-bag" then surely it's RFK, Jr.! His viewpoints reveal a highly unusual and unlikely blend of beliefs that are both liberal and conservative (maybe that's what a guy like me, "conservaliberal", is drawn to). This lengthy piece in the Intelligencer website provides a good look at the man, and his stated opinions: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/art...presidential-campaign-democratic-primary.html Deep inside this better-than-usual article is are examples of the kind of "whiplash"-producing fluctuations we see in RFK, Jr. Among them: "While he has railed at billionaires, he has described Sacks and Musk as “incredibly patriotic and incredibly committed to democracy.” He seems largely uninterested in many progressive economic-policy ideas, including a wealth tax, universal basic income, or a federal jobs guarantee, and regularly reaffirms that he is “a free-market-capitalism kind of guy.” Kennedy’s anti-interventionist commitments seem to stop at his support for Israel, which he continually asserts. His positions on immigration and guns are so outside the liberal-left mainstream that people have suggested he is running in the wrong primary. When recently asked at a town hall what he would do to halt the proliferation of semi-automatic weapons, he replied, “I’m not going to take people’s guns away.” I know I haven't answered your question (yet), but when I have more time, I hope to.... For the moment, I suggest that a LOT of RFK, Jr.'s appeal to those in perhaps both the Left and the Right wings is that he is a fearless iconoclast... who is "his own man", refusing to be co-opted by any faction. He isn't a "Biden", and he isn't a "Trump", and those distinctions alone would make him relatively attractive to a growing number of Americans, IMHO.
Any MAGA Republican who think that RFK is “Donald Trump light” is delusional or poorly informed. He is a liberal who disagrees with the Democrat Party leadership now and then. His core belief is liberal Democrat. It would amaze me if many Trump supporters are fooled by this. I don’t want Trump at all. If going to jail ends his campaign, open the cell door. But I think RFK, Jr. will hunt Biden far more than Trump.
