Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

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US special operations team working out of embassy in Ukraine: Sources

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s attempts to promote a potential anti-Western coalition.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to use high-profile public statements to portray Belarus as a sovereign state despite its current de-facto occupation by Russian forces.
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov promptly rejected Lukashenko’s suggestion of a ceasefire and indicated that the Kremlin is not interested in serious negotiations.
• Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev leveraged comments about sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine to continue information operations that portray the West as escalatory.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces made gains within Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces regained positions in the Bakhmut area.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk frontline.
• Ukrainian strikes against Russian concentration areas in southern Ukraine are likely causing the Russian grouping in the area to change tactics to avoid the risk of strikes.
• Russian officials continue to state that Russian forces have no plans for a formal second wave of mobilization.
• Russian officials continue to send Ukrainian children to camps in Russia. . . .

Ukrainian troops regained positions around Bakhmut, and Ukrainian officials continue to emphasize the importance of Ukraine’s continued defense in this area on March 31. Geolocated footage posted on March 31 indicates that Ukrainian troops conducted a counterattack southwest of Bakhmut and regained lost positions south of Ivanivske (about 7km southwest of Bakhmut).[30] Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on March 31 that Ukraine’s committed defense of Bakhmut has made it ”the most expensive” Russian effort of the war and noted that ”the time, weapons, equipment, and huge number of casualties spent by the enemy on the capture of Bakhmut do not justify themselves from the point of view of military expediency.”[31] Malyar’s statement supports ISW assessment that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut remains strategically sound as long as Ukrainian troops force Russian troops to attrit manpower and equipment without Ukrainian troops suffering excessive losses.[32] Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi relatedly reported on March 31 that Russian forces in certain sectors of Bakhmut are noticeably nervous because time is against them, and they have fewer human resources with which to storm Ukrainian positions.[33] . . . .

Ukrainian strikes against Russian concentration areas in southern Ukraine are likely causing the Russian grouping in the area to change tactics to avoid the risk of strikes. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on March 31 that Russian forces in this area are spreading themselves out and dispersing troops and equipment to avoid presenting targets.[41] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also noted that Ukrainian aviation and missile and artillery units hit two Russian concentration areas over the last day.[42] Geolocated footage posted on March 30 shows a Ukrainian strike against a Russian electronic warfare (EW) system in Nova Kakhovka.[43] Russian sources claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in mutual shelling across the Dnipro River and that Ukrainian forces shelled Russian positions on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.[44] . . . .

 

World
Ukrayinska Pravda
Wagner Group Leader calls on Putin to declare end of war

 

If U,Rainey accepted that it would be capitulation.

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• The Kremlin is likely attempting to portray Russia as an equal defense partner with China ahead of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu’s visit to Moscow from April 16 to 18.
• The Kremlin is likely hoping to make itself more attractive to China by launching Russian Pacific Fleet exercises to project Russia’s naval power in the Pacific.
• The Kremlin also likely intends to use the Pacific Fleet’s combat readiness checks to attempt to deter further Japanese support for Ukraine ahead of the G7 meeting from May 19 to 21.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is setting information conditions to exploit a Russian military failure if the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive is successful.
• Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin denied speculations that he is facing charges in St. Petersburg for the discreditation of the Russian Armed Forces – a denial that likely further indicates his protection by unknown siloviki patrons.
• Russian elite forces are diluting their combat effectiveness with poorly trained mobilized personnel and volunteers due to high causalities sustained in Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely host his annual June press conference in early June 2023.
• The Russian State Duma is intensifying its efforts to censor of Russian cultural figures who fled Russia and criticize the war, likely aimed at encouraging domestic self-censorship.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Kreminna area as Ukrainian forces targeted rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued to advance in Bakhmut and conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continue to endanger the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) amidst continued Russian efforts to establish control over the ZNPP.
• The Kremlin reportedly continues to use private military companies (PMCs) and nationalist networks to support its force generation campaigns.
• Russian security personnel continue to arrest Ukrainian citizens under allegations that they associate with claimed illegal formations. . . . .

Novaya Gazeta’s interview with the Russian volunteer uncovers several key observations about the Russian volunteer recruitment movement. The interview reinforces the ISW’s assessment that the Russian MoD is not effective in directly attracting recruits due to its reputation, making Russian PMCs more appealing to recruits.[63] The Russian MoD is likely using MoD-affiliated PMCs to mislead recruits into signing military contracts, effectively transferring PMC personnel into Russian military under the recent efforts to professionalize the military. The interview indicates that Russian elite units such as airborne (VDV) or SPETSNAZ forces are likely reinforced by volunteers and mobilized personnel and are no longer fully or even mainly composed of professionals or specialists, calling into question their status as “elite” units. A Russian milblogger also observed that Russia needs to change its recruitment system because it does not account for recruits’ expertise.[64] Russia may even be creating or misrepresenting SPETSNAZ or VDV volunteer units to attract recruits regardless of their inexperience with special forces or VDV operations to brand such recruitment as enlistment into prestigious elite units. . . . .

 

[
“Russian elite forces are diluting their combat effectiveness with poorly trained mobilized personnel and volunteers due to high causalities sustained in Ukraine”.

This kid likely true but not a long term effect if the Russians get to pull off a long pause or freeze in the war. The Ukrainians need to keep the body counts of erased Russians at a high level to make rebuilding by the Russians a very extremely difficult task.

 

World
Business Insider
Wagner Group leader says a Ukrainian counter-offensive would likely succeed as Russia is in 'crisis,' report says

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023
Key Takeaways

• The Russian military command appears to be increasingly shifting responsibility for offensive operations in Ukraine to the Russian Airborne (VDV) troops.
• News of Teplinsky’s reappointment suggests that the Russian MoD is seeking to work more closely with the Wagner Group in order to complete the capture of Bakhmut, despite obvious tensions between Prigozhin and the traditional MoD establishment.
• Russian milbloggers seized on an opportunity to denigrate St. Petersburg Mayor Alexander Beglov in a manner that indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s anti-Beglov campaign has permeated the Russian ultra-nationalist information space.
• The Wagner Group returned 130 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on April 16, suggesting that Wagner may have engaged in the exchange independent of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• The Wagner Group may be attempting to force mobilized Russian personnel to sign contracts with Wagner, possibly in an effort to offset Wagner’s losses in Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces reportedly intensified the rate of artillery strikes in southern Ukraine.
• Russian mobilized personnel continue to publish public complaints against Russian commanders alleging mistreatment.
• A Russian source stated that the Wagner Group is involved in the removal of Ukrainian children from Bakhmut. . . . .

Russian mobilized personnel continue to publish public complaints against Russian commanders alleging mistreatment. Russian mobilized personnel from Moscow and Ivanovo oblasts, some of whom are a part of the 27th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District), released a video compliant on April 16 in which they accused Russian commanders of deploying the personnel to an unspecified area in Luhansk Oblast on April 5 after initially telling them they would be transferring to a Southern Military District (SMD) formation in Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast.[58] The mobilized personnel claimed that they do not know where in Luhansk Oblast they are and that they are subordinated under the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.[59] ISW has previously assessed that the Russian MoD is attempting to integrate DNR and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) formations into the Russian Armed Forces by subordinating mobilized personnel under these formations.[60]

The Wagner Group likely continues to suffer heavy casualties in attritional offensive operations in Ukraine. Russian sources reported on April 16 that the Wagner Group’s cemetery in Bakinskaya, Krasnodar Krai grew by 60 graves since April 1.[61] A Russian milblogger amplified footage on April 15 of Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin unveiling a new section of a cemetery for Wagner fighters near Nikolaevka, Samara Oblast.[62] . . . .

 

One time that I agree with Prigozhin.

 

Former senior diplomats urge west to ‘go all in’ on military support for Ukraine

 

President Biden and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi at the U.N. climate summit in November. (AP)
EXCLUSIVE
Egypt nearly supplied Russia with rockets, agreed to arm Ukraine instead, leak shows
Egypt made detailed plans to export rockets at Moscow’s request, but after a diplomatic offensive from Washington, later approved artillery production for Kyiv.
By Missy Ryan, Evan Hill and Siobhán O'Grady

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is seemingly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin likely as a result of the Russian conventional military’s inability to accomplish the tasks Putin had set for it during the winter offensive in Donbas. The extent of Putin’s trust and favor for Prigozhin is unclear at this time, but it is likely that Putin halted the Russian MoD’s efforts to avenge Wagner by denying Wagner reinforcements and ammunition.
• An interview with two former Wagner Group fighters on their treatment of Ukrainian children and other civilians and prisoners of war (POWs) further highlights how Wagner has institutionalized systematic brutality as part of its fundamental modus operandi.
• The Gulagu.net interview with the two former Wagner fighters provides valuable insight into Wagner’s force structure and operational prioritization.
• The Moscow City Court sentenced Russian opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza to 25 years in prison on the charge of high treason for Kara-Murza's criticism of the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine.
• Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on April 16 and pledged to strengthen military exchanges and cooperation between Russia and China. Putin continued efforts to portray Russia as an equal defense partner with China and a Pacific naval power amidst Li’s visit.
• Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” published its manifesto focused on protecting pro-war factions in the Kremlin from possible “sabotage” and “betrayal.”
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and south of Kreminna.
• Russian forces have made further gains in Bakhmut and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continued defensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
• The Kremlin’s transition to electronic summonses distribution is continuing to complicate Russian conscription procedures.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to discuss the provision of Russian passports in occupied areas of Ukraine. . . . .

Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” published its manifesto focused on protecting pro-war factions in the Kremlin from possible “sabotage” and “betrayal.” The “Club of Angry Patriots” published its manifesto on April 17 on its newly created Telegram channel, which emphasizes protecting pro-war factions in the Kremlin instead of efforts to win the war in Ukraine.[25] The manifesto claims that unspecified actors who remain in power in Russia have transferred their money and allegiance to the West and may be preparing for a coup and the ”dismemberment” of the Russia Federation. The manifesto likens the Kremlin‘s pro-war and anti-war factions to the fight between the Reds and Whites in the Russian Civil War following the Bolshevik revolution of 1917. The manifesto also claims that Russia is currently fighting the war in a mediocre way and is unable to defeat Ukraine in its current state. ISW previously assessed that Girkin and the “Club of Angry Patriots” may be attempting to advance the political goals of unnamed figures in Russian power structures who want to influence Putin’s decision making through public discourse.[26] . . . .

 

I'll agree with the dismemberment of the Russian Federation ....

 

No empires should exist anymore. Empires act as evils in some way or another eventually. Even the Austria-Hungarian Empire which was mildly evil did some bad things. France so so. Italy - ask Ethiopia. British Empire - they did a doozy on the Zulus and the Mau Mau’s . Occasionally fried an Indian or two. How do the Irish in the Republic rate the British Empire? The Ottoman did dirty deeds also. The Romanovs, the Stalin Empire, and Putin’s Russia empire pure evil. Ask the Tibetans about China. Ask the Formosans about the Chinese or the Congolese about the Belgiums.

 

Reuters
Poland proposes fresh EU sanctions against Russia over Ukraine war

 

LOL...maybe.

According to Liar-ov , Orc mouthpiece....USA is Roman Empire re incarnated...Pentagon is the cancer of the earth.....and must be eradicated.

I think he's "misinformed"?

 

Ha ha ha -+++-+++. Ti dumayish !, Ya think!

 

U.S. charges four Americans with aiding Kremlin efforts
By Devlin Barrett

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive during his visit to occupied Kherson and Luhansk oblasts.
• Putin’s visit likely intended to publicly identify scapegoats ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• Putin’s demonstrative meetings with Teplinsky, Makarevich, and Lapin likely confirm another change in military command and possibly within the Kremlin’s inner circle.
• Select members of the “Club of Angry Patriots” are advocating for a revolution in Russia if the Kremlin freezes the war or pursue peace negotiations with Ukraine and the West.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu met to discuss on strategic partnership and military cooperation in Moscow on April 18.
• The Russian State Duma approved a series of amendments to the Russian Criminal Code on April 18 aimed at encouraging domestic self-censorship and repressing the Russian public.
• Russian authorities detained Russian public relations specialist Yaroslav Shirshikov, an associate of detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, in Yekaterinburg on April 18.
• The Russian Immortal Regiment Central Headquarters announced the cancelation of the annual Immortal Regiment Victory Day march, likely in an effort to reduce public discussion of war dead.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued to make gains in Bakhmut and conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continue defensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to integrate proxy formations with conventional Russian forces.
• Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian civilians to Russia under healthcare and rehabilitation schemes.
• Belarus may begin economically supporting Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast with a patronage system. . . . .

Select members of the “Club of Angry Patriots” are advocating for a revolution in Russia if the Kremlin freezes the war or pursues peace negotiations with Ukraine and the West. Self-proclaimed former “People’s Governor of Donetsk Oblast” Pavel Gubarev defined the “Club of Angry Patriots” as a “potentially revolutionary power” that will prevent “betrayal” if the government decides to freeze the current frontlines in Ukraine.[16] Gubarev also noted that Russia cannot win the war without a revolution – either from within the government or in society – because oligarchs, agents, ethnic mafias, and nationalist separatists will not allow for the reformation of social-economic institutions to support the war effort. Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin noted that Gubarev’s opinion does not represent the collective vision on the “Club of Angry Patriots” and noted that any revolution begins with a “coup from the top” over which he and other members of the group have no control over since they do not have connections to the Kremlin.[17]

The official “Club of Angry Patriots” Telegram account amplified a forecast regarding possible political changes within the Kremlin as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, which may represent the group’s concerns over the progress of the war.[18] The group amplified a post from the leader of the Russian “Civil Solidarity” movement Georgiy Fedorov, who stated that the political situation in Russia largely depends on frontline realities. Fedorov assessed that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent statements about the end of the “special military operation” is the start of the campaign to freeze the war in Ukraine. . . . .

Pardoned former Wagner convict forces are continuing to commit violent crimes in Russia following the conclusion of their contracts and reintegration into Russian society. Released Wagner mercenary Georgy Siukaev reportedly killed a civilian in Tskhinvali, South Ossetia.[69] Siukaev recently returned from the frontlines in Ukraine, and Prigozhin claimed that Wanger’s reoffender rate remains low.[70] . . . .

 

Reuters
Exclusive: South Korea's Yoon opens door for possible military aid to Ukraine

 

About time.

 

That would be good yet South Korea would have to do it carefully. Wonder if South Korea has historical memory in it’s national consciousness how many countries came to their support when the North Korean Commies attacked them. I am not talking boots on the ground in Ukraine am talking military material support.

 

Thanks for posting that fantastic article. I of course welcome any evidence of dissent in Russia even if that descent is not anti war. Dissent even among pro war Russians and even more so calls for a revolution any revolution. I know that we need to be aware that revolutions can result in unintended or unwanted consequences. Yet any friction, crack, fissure, battle disruption, or gross disagreement between or among Russians or Russia supporters ( Lukashenko, Wagnerites, pro Russian Chechens etc. ) is a beautiful thing.
Any coup or even an attempted coup in Russia would be great.

 

Ukraine war: The Russian ships accused of North Sea sabotage



Russia-Ukraine war live: Kyiv receives Patriot missile systems from US and Germany

 

LOL....ohh...but Shoigu and Konashenkov claim all Patriots ,Leopards,Challengers,Marders....have either been captured and/or destroyed??....how's this possible?