Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

...one of the best analysts on this conflict....

 

Outstanding

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.
• Ukrainian officials reported that terrain features constrain Ukrainian offensive operations across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
• US officials reported that a Patriot air defense system is operational after Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian missile strikes on Kyiv destroyed the system on May 16.
• The Kremlin reportedly accused three hypersonic missile scientists of treason.
• Select Russian strongmen (siloviki) are likely attempting to signal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin that he must cease his political ambitions in Russia.
• The Russian siloviki may be intimidating Russian officials affiliated with Prigozhin to discourage their cooperation with Wagner but appear to be unsuccessful in their attempts to scare Prigozhin into obedience.
• Russian authorities continue to crack down against domestic anti-war dissent in an effort to strengthen domestic repressions and prepare Russian society for a long-term war effort.
• Russian authorities are likely forcefully integrating Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) dioceses in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast as part of a wider religious persecution campaign in occupied Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued to make incremental gains in Bakhmut and conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continued to target west (right) bank Kherson Oblast and islands at the Dnipro River delta out of fear of planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• The Kremlin continues crypto-mobilization efforts by recruiting regional volunteer battalions and criminals.
• The Russian State Duma adopted amendments to the martial law on May 16 that authorize the forced and controlled movement of citizens from territories under the martial law to the territories without marital law.
• Russian ultranationalists are speculating about the fate of Belarus’ independence in case of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s severe illness or death.

Ukrainian forces reportedly continue to strike areas along critical logistics lines in southern Ukraine. Russian sources, including Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky, claimed on May 17 that Ukrainian forces shelled Tokmak, Vasylivka, and Polohy in Zaporizhia Oblast.[50] . . . .

The Kremlin continues crypto-mobilization efforts by recruiting regional volunteer battalions and criminals. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Volga region service Idel Realii reported that Ulyanovsk Oblast Governor Alexei Russkikh and Head of the Republic of Bashkortostan Radiy Khabirov announced the creation of new unspecified battalions that will fight in Ukraine.[51] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported that Russian forces have started using assault companies called “Storm Z” consisting of criminals recruited who are awaiting their trials.[52] ISW has previously reported on the structure of “Storm Z” formations and their likely use in highly attritional ground assaults in western Donetsk Oblast.[53] . . . .

 

ooops....well everyone new they were old bits of recycled crap but this'll probably make scientists much more cautious.....

Link to

 

Reuters
Russian forces in retreat near Bakhmut, Ukraine and Wagner say

 

52% of Ukrainian schoolchildren chose German instead of Russian

 

The Russian MOD said a ton of things that are not and we’re not true, and never will be true.

 

Those young Ukes are smart. Molod.

 

AP News
$3 billion accounting error means the Pentagon can send more weapons to Ukraine

 

The Guardian
US risks rift with European allies over hesitancy to supply F-16s to Ukraine


Politico
Pressure campaign on Biden to send F-16s to Ukraine goes into overdrive

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18.
• Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized the battlefield initiative in the Bakhmut area.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of Bakhmut.
• Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated milbloggers are blaming Russian conventional forces for military failures in and around Bakhmut.
• Prigozhin’s efforts to blame the Russian military for failures around Bakhmut are causing some ultranationalists to accuse him of using the Battle for Bakhmut to satisfy his personal ambitions.
• Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike across Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18, targeting Kyiv for the ninth time since the beginning of May.
• The Kremlin continues to strengthen domestic repression measures likely to encourage self-censorship and prepare Russian society for a prolonged war.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may discuss the possible provision of Western fighter jets to Ukraine at the June Defense Ministers meeting.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Unknown actors, possibly Ukrainian partisans, attacked a Russian rail line in Crimea.
• The Russian Supreme Court ruled on May 18 that Russian military personnel who voluntarily surrender on the battlefield will be prosecuted under treason charges.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to announce patronage programs with Russian federal subjects to support infrastructure projects in occupied territories. . . . .

A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces artificially raised the water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir, hindering Russian defensive operations. Ukrainian Southern Forces Joint Press Center Head Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces flooded their own positions on the reservoir banks, sustaining losses and igniting scandal.[43] Humenyuk also stated that Russian forces rely on stolen boats for logistics to the Dnipro delta islands. . . . .

The Russian Supreme Court ruled on May 18 that Russian military personnel who voluntarily surrender on the battlefield will be prosecuted under treason charges.[49] The Supreme Court clarified that Russian military personnel are committing a crime if they voluntarily and knowingly surrender to enemy forces when it was possible to resist capture. The Supreme Court ruled that a Russian serviceman may be released from criminal responsibility only if he did not previously voluntarily surrender, undertook all possible measures to ensure his release, returned to his location of service, and did not commit other crimes while in detention. Wounded servicemen or personnel who are unable to resist due to a physical condition are not criminally liable for treason. The Russian judicial system is likely establishing conditions for the persecution and punishment of captured Russian prisoners of war given its previous mistreatment of wrongfully mobilized personnel.[50] . . . .

 

....a rather damning overview of Russia's top military commander.....

link to

 

Did the children on Russia's side even get a choice?

 

I am addressing the situation in Ukraine. Not sure if Russian school children have a choice but I doubt it. I believe that the choice is for learning a foreign language. Right after Ukraine achieved independence I know that at least two of my first cousins in Ukraine who still had children in school had their children choose English as a foreign language. I strongly recommended English to them. I can understand German being a popular choice now since Ukraine is looking to be in the EU so knowing German makes practical and political sense.

 

A fortuitous @$&*$% up for Ukraine though if this is true I have deep concern that our DOD actually @&&&##%ed up.

 

I highly recommend that Gerasimov be given the gold medal award as Hero of the Russian Terrorist Empire.

 

I think surface to air missiles would be more effective $$ spent. My 2 cents.

 

a few Russian school classes remained

 

...I'm not sure...if you look at the force structures that the west has given Ukraine these are well complimented by air power; especially laser guided weapons/bombs launched from aircraft which obviously can rapidly respond to calls for close infantry support...western kit will obviously be able to link to Sentry aircraft patrolling in the Black Sea and from Poland Romania etc which will give them ability to react to Russian aviation/ground forces activities.

The issue I've got at the moment is the west is professing lots of support for Ukraine but support in terms of what? What are they ultimately wanting Ukraine to do and what are they supporting...pushing back Russia to Feb 2022 boundaries...2014 boundaries?? What objective is the west supporting Ukraine in achieving?? If they are supporting Ukraine then fkucing well support them!! If it were me they'd had EA-18s F/A-18Fs and F-15Es. The UK has roughly 900-1000 storm shadow missiles sitting in storage which we should give to Ukraine as we're doing sod all with them!! Who the hell is the UK going to be using these things against in the medium term??

The US is suddenly worried about China and worried that supporting Ukraine could undermine efforts with Taiwan...how?? Taiwan would presumably love to see Russia knocked back to the stone age as this then leaves China more exposed than ever both diplomatically and militarily!! Also China is a paper tiger with forces composed of the same weapons and tactic and inept leadership as Russia!! China is a demonstration military...they show all their latest equipment in their excercises to the west, however, the vast majority of their equipment is old crap Soviet kit.

 

I don't have an opinion on that. It's outside my expertise envelope. I suspect that most of the anti-air weaponry that can be given has already been given. I also think that the fighter aircraft have become a political and psychological symbol.

 

All fair points, but Western governments also have a responsibility to maintain a certain minimum level of stocks for their own defense.

 

but all that's happening is that kit with short use by dates are being utilised...and were in the process of being updated anyway....and who are the US going to be attacking in the near future??
I think I mentioned somewhere that equipment equating to roughly 5% of the US defence budget has knackered 50% of Russian land forces....that's a pretty good return on expenditure of stockpiled equipment....I don't see the issue here Putin has given the West the most golden opportunity...the best possible excuse...the gold standard in emasculating an enemy by proxy....this is a once in a lifetime opportunity that China is watching very closely....why the fkuc do you think they want Russia to succeed!!!

 

The US must be prepared to act on behalf of Taiwan.

 

...also this is in defence of the west as if we flinch with Russia and hold back what sort of message will that send to China or other potential actors...Iran for example?? The defence of liberal democracy is on the line....right now....this moment in time....and we're limiting our support for it because....what...we're floundering around worrying....about what....actually having a liberal democracy to defend???

 

BBC
G7: New sanctions will make sure Russia pays a price, Sunak says