Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth's Heating Rate

Comparison of overlapping one-year estimates at 6-month intervals of net top-of-the-atmosphere annual energy flux from CERES (solid orange line) and an in situ observational estimate of uptake of energy by Earth climate system (solid turquoise line).
Credits: NASA/Tim Marvel

The information below does mention that the doubling of the imbalance is likely a mix of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability.

Since the total solar irradiance (TSI) decreased by about 0.1 watt/square meter from start to finish and that change was omitted from the study,
the energy imbalance at 2019 would have been 0.1 watts per square meter higher if there was no change in TSI. So, not including the effects
of the solar cycle served to reduce the magnitude of the increase in the energy imbalance that can be attributed to humans.


CERES | Terra (nasa.gov)


The study finds that the doubling of the imbalance is partially the result an increase in greenhouse gases due to human activity, also known as anthropogenic forcing, along with increases in water vapor are trapping more outgoing longwave radiation, further contributing to Earth’s energy imbalance. Additionally, the related decrease in clouds and sea ice lead to more absorption of solar energy.

The researchers also found that a flip of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from a cool phase to a warm phase likely played a major role in the intensification of the energy imbalance. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variability. Its fingerprint includes a massive wedge of water in the eastern Pacific that goes through cool and warm phases. This naturally occurring internal variability in the Earth system can have far-reaching effects on weather and climate. An intensely warm PDO phase that began around 2014 and continued until 2020 caused a widespread reduction in cloud coverage over the ocean and a corresponding increase in the absorption of solar radiation.

“It’s likely a mix of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability,” said Loeb. “And over this period they’re both causing warming, which leads to a fairly large change in Earth’s energy imbalance. The magnitude of the increase is unprecedented.”

Loeb cautions that the study is only a snapshot relative to long-term climate change, and that it’s not possible to predict with any certainty what the coming decades might look like for the balance of Earth’s energy budget. The study does conclude, however, that unless the rate of heat uptake subsides, greater changes in climate than are already occurring should be expected.

“The lengthening and highly complementary records from Argo and CERES have allowed us both to pin down Earth’s energy imbalance with increasing accuracy, and to study its variations and trends with increasing insight, as time goes on.” said Gregory Johnson, co-author on the study and physical oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, Washington. “Observing the magnitude and variations of this energy imbalance are vital to understanding Earth’s changing climate.”

Joe Atkinson
NASA’s Langley Research CenterLast Updated: Jun 16, 2021Editor: Joe Atkinson

 

The purpose of showing that graph was to rebut the article presented by Jack Hays that faulted the paper's author's for not including solar cycle TSI
variations. The article incorrectly stated that there was a 1 watt per square meter variation (or larger) in the total solar irradiance (TSI) that was
omitted from the study and that this was greater than the energy imbalance. There is actually more like a 0.2 watt/square meter variation in the
solar irradiance absorbed by the earth and the graph was used to show how it affected the calculations. The net effect was to lower the 2019
energy imbalance 0.1 watt per square meter from the 2005 energy imbalance, actually making their results a little less dramatic. I was only
using the TSI portion of the graph, not the temperature portion. The authors were fully aware of this.