Scientist: 97% Covid's Been Spreading for Six Weeks in Washington

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by FlamingLib, Mar 1, 2020.

PF does not allow misinformation. However, please note that posts could occasionally contain content in violation of our policies prior to our staff intervening. We urge you to seek reliable alternate sources to verify information you read in this forum.

  1. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2009
    Messages:
    97,081
    Likes Received:
    77,396
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Neither did you

    Duly noted

    Ps I ignore personal attacks
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
  2. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2009
    Messages:
    97,081
    Likes Received:
    77,396
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
  3. BaghdadBob

    BaghdadBob Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2016
    Messages:
    3,126
    Likes Received:
    4,804
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The hotbed appears to be a nursing home in Kirkland, WA with 50 "respiratory" illnesses and a connection to two of the identified COVID-19 sufferers.
     
    Libby and MrTLegal like this.
  4. opion8d

    opion8d Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2018
    Messages:
    5,864
    Likes Received:
    4,631
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Okay honest mistake. The problem is, how many honest and deliberate mistakes are out there? How many deliberate falsehoods, lies, and bad reporting? In short most of the mess is because people don't have a single source of news they can trust.

    It's made worse because we have a Trump Administration that has lied, denied, and manipulated such that nobody I know takes anything coming out of Washington as factual. There is no leadership anywhere. We are living in a jumble of lies, mistakes, managed news on all sides, and average Americans are getting screwed by special interests.

    The challenge facing Americans is to sort out truth from falsehoods. One of the best sources of data I saw recently was Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera!!?? Maybe there is a not to subtle message there -- U.S. sources of information are not to be trusted.
     
    AKS, FlamingLib, Bowerbird and 2 others like this.
  5. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2013
    Messages:
    47,624
    Likes Received:
    48,666
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Inside the United States there was some political backlash from an ethnic group as a result of the impeachment farce. It's coming from the nation's immense Hispanic-American population which is now trending toward supporting Trump. When asked, many of them said that it was because most of them knew what a coup attempt was when they saw one and the impeachment farce was definitely a coup attempt.

    People know that Trump is already having the government deal with the Corona Virus as best as it can and that the Left pointing the trembling finger of blame at him amounts to nothing more than yet another round of gutter level political games play at the nation's expense.
     
    Thought Criminal likes this.
  6. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2017
    Messages:
    41,095
    Likes Received:
    26,663
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Schumer did not call trump a racist for imposing travel restrictions on china.

    And multiple media sources reported on the restrictions immediately.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
  7. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2017
    Messages:
    41,095
    Likes Received:
    26,663
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You are definitely just making up ****.
     
    AKS and Bowerbird like this.
  8. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2017
    Messages:
    41,095
    Likes Received:
    26,663
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Appreciate the information.

    I saw a story that Washington State is also investigating a potential outbreak at a nursing facility. Given the upward range of mortality of 15-20% for the oldest, that is a very bad recipe.
     
    Bowerbird and FlamingLib like this.
  9. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2018
    Messages:
    3,903
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You think this thing is a media invention? At this point?
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  10. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2013
    Messages:
    47,624
    Likes Received:
    48,666
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There is a thread on it . . . with an article link.
     
  11. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2018
    Messages:
    3,903
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Oh, I see. That answered my previous post.

    I think this probably just jumped species, but in 10 or 20 years, as technology improves, and gene editing becomes more widespread, we'll probably start seeing a lot of these, just like computer viruses. I can see people vaccinating themselves, creating one of these, and then turning it loose just to see the havoc it wreaks.

    They'll probably have a medical version of anti-virus software where, for $100 a month (or $1000, who knows), you go in every month, get a shot, and get innoculated from the latest man-made viruses. And if you're poor...well, they've always been screwed over.
     
  12. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2018
    Messages:
    3,903
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I wouldn't judge. Eating cheese is kind of gross, when you stop to think about it. Same with menudo, pig's feet, cow tongue, etc.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  13. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2018
    Messages:
    3,903
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Don't be so quick to judge. We eat absolute **** in this country:

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
    Bowerbird likes this.
  14. HTownMarine

    HTownMarine Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2013
    Messages:
    8,348
    Likes Received:
    4,155
    Trophy Points:
    113


    People in Iran are falling over dead in the streets. Dozens of government officials are sick and most of their healthcare workers are also sick.

    You're going to see thousands of deaths in Iran alone in a few weeks.

    Just the flu though.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  15. EMTdaniel86

    EMTdaniel86 Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2011
    Messages:
    9,380
    Likes Received:
    4,403
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I'm just going to post these pictures because well it summaries my post better then I could.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
    Thought Criminal likes this.
  16. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2018
    Messages:
    3,903
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The mortality rate from the Diamond Princess passengers is hovering around the 1% range (6 dead out of 700 infected). And that's with state-of-the-art care available to every sick person on that ship. That's inline with what we're seeing in other countries whose numbers are reliable.

    The good news and bad news is that that 1% is heavily skewed. On the one hand, kids don't seem to be bothered much by this at all. Healthy people my age (40's) are also in good shape. But older people with existing health issues are going to get hit hard here.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
    Bowerbird likes this.
  17. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,050
    Likes Received:
    18,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I think we'll see the hotbeds emanating from communities with large Asian populations. The one death and 2 nursing home cases in King County are the tip of the iceberg. Now this report out of Snohomish County, which borders King County to the north, is not surprising given the area's demographics.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2018
    Messages:
    3,903
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Unfortunately, there's a lot of truth to that. You can trust the WHO. They seem solid. CDC seems to have completely blown this so far. We've still hardly tested anyone.

    When I want an update, I go to a science forum I know and check out what the members are saying. The scientific community is working their asses off on this, but the stuff they put out is buried in dense jargon, and it's not always obvious where to find the reports. Fortunately, there are always experts who love to break things down for people on message boards like these.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
  19. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2009
    Messages:
    97,081
    Likes Received:
    77,396
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    BBC and it’s Aussie equivalent the ABC are still pretty reliable
     
  20. HTownMarine

    HTownMarine Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2013
    Messages:
    8,348
    Likes Received:
    4,155
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Nobody cares about the mortality rate, even though I'm watching people in Iran drop dead in the streets.

    It's the 20% of patients that require hospitalization that is the problem.

    We're 8 weeks away from most everyone on the planet becoming infected. Most hospitals dont have an extra 100 beds, let alone 1,000.

    There is a limit to our healthcare capabilities, and once we cross that point, it will get much worse.

    Also, the dude in critical condition in Italy is a marathon runner in his 30s. A 25 year old nurse in Iran died. Its not just affecting the old.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
    Idahojunebug77 likes this.
  21. HTownMarine

    HTownMarine Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2013
    Messages:
    8,348
    Likes Received:
    4,155
    Trophy Points:
    113
    What do you want him to say? We're all ****ed?

    That seems like a really stupid thing to say. Of course he would say it's not a big deal. Why cause a panic? You act like because Trump is attempting to downplay this that government is pretending it itsnt happening.

    You're not that stupid, are you? Maybe you are.
     
    Idahojunebug77 likes this.
  22. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2018
    Messages:
    3,903
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    113
    "We predict that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, we predict the epidemic peak would occur in June."

    ...

    The attack rate for best-guess parameters had a median of 45799874 (81.67% range 81.64-81.69), with a peak incidence median 1,116,692."

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566v1.full.pdf

    That's encouraging, in a way. England and Wales have 60 million people. That would translate to "only" 5 million infections here. Assuming a 1% mortality, that would be 50,000 deaths. We could handle that. It would suck, but so do bad flu seasons. The problem is going to be the stress on the existing healthcare system and the financial impacts of people uninsured/underinsured being wiped out from medical bills after spending a week or so in an ICU.

    The poor people in places like Mexico City and Calcutta won't have to worry about going broke from medical care. What medical care? This is going to wreak havoc in those kinds of places.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
    Labouroflove likes this.
  23. Libby

    Libby Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2017
    Messages:
    8,000
    Likes Received:
    14,224
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    ROFL, no chance of that, this is the Dem's newest favorite political football. If anyone even coughs Dems are going to be hovering around hoping they can add it to their Trump is baaaaad coronovirus statistics.

    It wouldn't matter if the mortality rate from "the yearly flu" was 1,000,000x worse than COVID-19, because the Democrats can't try to pin "the yearly flu" on Trump, but enough of their low information followers have bought the Trump-is-to-blame-for-the-coronavirus hype hook, line, and sinker so they're running with that.



    True. They were too busy focusing on impeachment and Russia, while Pelosi was building up her forearm muscles practicing tearing paper ;)
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
  24. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2018
    Messages:
    3,903
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The media loves a good disaster story because people love a good disaster story. It's panic porn. Life is often dull and gray and boring. These stories are interesting. They're distracting from our boring jobs and lives.

    But that doesn't mean the reporting is wrong. This thing is going to massively disrupt our global system. It's already starting to.
     
  25. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2018
    Messages:
    3,903
    Likes Received:
    2,192
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Are you in Iran?
     

Share This Page