Wars are bad, but long bloody ones are worse. Nightmare scenario for me is the Russians can’t win but they successfully cut off aid from the west, resulting in an effective encirclement that tens of millions of Ukrainians, suppose they don’t/can’t surrender, are now starving in. what does/should the west do? Another nightmare scenario is nuclear reactors melting down, directly or indirectly. Both of these scenarios are possible, and Biden and the rest of Europe need to be prepared. Like…a lot more than they have been so far. That means that whatever the action(s) to be taken are, need to be figured the hell out right now, not as radiation pours across Europe on a strong breeze
It's pretty clear that all wars aren't won with bullets and blood. Nations have a degree of inter-dependence in global economy. IF the west (starting with US) took the right economic actions, Russia would be hard pressed to continue. Sadly, we lack anybody with the balls to take action. IF we had such a person, they might turn to the many sanctions available: Shut off all purchases of oil products from Russia; remove the rules that destroyed our own oil independence that the current administration inherited. Shut Russia out of the SWIFT banking loop. That is how international financial transactions are made. Shut them out- the flow of money stops. Even if they sell oil, the money doesn't transfer. There are numerous things like this that are very powerful and could be done quickly- assuming a leader had the balls to do it. They could also be done quickly, not delayed a month or two. Russia would strike back with sanctions on caviar and of course some special minerals- but that is a double edged sword. When you are strapped for money to run your war, refusing to sell what you can only adds to the problem. The most effective ways to deal with things of this magnitude- militarily or diplomatically- is to do so hard and fast. Again... it takes a leader with the savvy and the stones; ours has neither. One of the interesting points is that the private sector does. All over the world, liquor stores are pulling Russian vodka from the shelves. Small token move- but that dries up another cash stream to Russia, tightens the noose. In Canada, this is taking the form of a directive from the government- Remove Russian products.
agreed, especially on the part of sanctioning in one fell swoop, no smart general attacks piecemeal, and piecemeal sanctions are the worst way to apply them. Thankfully I feel that as the myth of Russian invincibility here evaporates the West is finding its gonads and uniting, both private and public as you point out.
Are you aware of that will actually mean, though? With Russia and China out of the global loop on fuels and fertilisers, I'm not sure how you think the rest of the world is going to return to anything like 'normal'. All remaining resources will become insanely expensive, due to the dramatically reduced quantities. They'll also be stockpiled by various Govts and Ultra-wealthy individuals. Paying for fuel and food is going to be close to impossible for a significant proportion.
Are you aware you’re making observations without a point? Or are you saying lets not punish Russia because we want things back to normal? In any case Russia is just a giant gas can, they have very little else going for them economically, if they are out then high prices remain until the world adjusts its output elsewhere. And no one is yet saying anything about China so i don’t even know why you’re lumping them in atm other than it’s convenient to your things are expensive forever argument. At the end of the day, no matter the hurt we do to ourselves in the short term with sanctions, it will be far worse for those on the receiving end of it. We are years away from normal already, time we all accepted it’ll be a while before they are again and it might actually take some fighting to get there but the fight is worth the pain. No one knows this better than the Ukrainians
It won’t come to that. Most likely either side will capitulate before that. Once that happens it will end up turning into a violent insurgency, terrorism and the like. If it did get that bad? Support international humanitarian jobs. Try one’s best to get people out.
My point is that bombs are the least of your worries. I make no comment on the war games at all. As for the idea that the world will 'adjust its output', that's going to take years (if it's even possible to service the growing billions without raw materials from China and Russia). What happens to all of that humanity in the meantime - those who can't pay $20 for a gallon of fuel, or $5 for an apple? China is mentioned because they started stockpiling their grains and fertilisers last year. Fertilisers the rest of the world relies upon. Add sanctions to that mix (Russia also produces fertilisers), and you have two major sources of essential raw materials taken out of the system.This in turn makes whatever IS available, much more valuable that it has been. It's not logical or reasonable to think that won't be felt by the those who aren't wealthy.
Not necessarily. Butt out. If you can't have a 4,450 sq ft McMansion or 3 cars or Starsux everyday or Door-Dash, or Amazon Prime, sucks to be you, but that's not a reason to coerce conflict in Ukraine.
War is always bad. No response to a war of choice? Really bad idea. You appear to be confused about who coerced conflict in Ukraine.
