Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by MrTLegal, Jan 11, 2020.

  1. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    The co2 isotope is different

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...ncreases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/

    That’s one way

    Satellite measurement
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6427755/

    And good luck with THAT paper!

    2 minutes of google
     
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  2. guavaball

    guavaball Well-Known Member

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    Then prove it. With facts not theories.


    http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...ncreases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/

    That’s one way

    Satellite measurement
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6427755/

    And good luck with THAT paper!

    2 minutes of google[/QUOTE]


    LOL Once again you prove you don't read your own links.

    Your first link only theorizes that humans contribute to CO2 production (Something no one has denied.) not that humans are the primary source of CO2 or prove that CO2 is the primary reason for climate change.

    Strike 1 Mate

    Your second link cites zero evidence that humans are the primary source of CO2 for the planet or prove that CO2 is the primary source for climate change.

    Strike 2 Mate


    Care to go for strike 3 Bowerbird? :roflol::roflol:


    Less than 2 minutes of reading was required to debunk your 2 minute search :)
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2020
  3. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    Close enough for government work.

    Critique: a detailed analysis and assessment of something, especially a literary, philosophical, or political theory.
    Criticism: the expression of disapproval of someone or something based on perceived faults or mistakes.

    “Ooooh! How about a critique (not a criticism) of the IPCC findings?”

    I am aware of the difference between the two words, and for that reason it is impossible to critique without potential criticism. It’s a summary for policy makers, and that includes suggestions for social policy, not necessarily just findings.

    Page 27

    Granted, many of the poor in the world might be riding a two-stroke scooter with horrible emissions as compared to a more expensive four-stroke with the same cubic centimeter, and those poor who used to ride bicycles are more of a problem than they used to be. As more poor move up to cars and trucks as any video of Snowcat riding in India will show, hell on earth follows. https://www.youtube.com/user/snowcatxx87 Certainly "income" improvements will without other regulations mean more pollution.

    The summary brings up zoning laws, but not with any real sense of how it is related to climate change. Like say for instance I was required by law to build a bigger house, more heated living space more climate change.

    I am a believer in the tiny house, which are pretty much illegal in the majority of counties and cities in this country regardless of majority party.

    Therefore, the report I am forbidden to criticize lacks sense in a matter with regard to "heated living space," an important aspect of carbon emissions.

    They are tiny points, but overall every 2000 square foot house (the zoning requirement) heated for a single person in DEMOCRATIC DeKalb County Georgia is killing us.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2020
  4. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You have no understanding of what percentage of global CO2 emissions each country contributes ???
     
  5. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Every new house is killing us ????
     
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  6. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    @JCS & @Bowerbird too

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/08/170821183404.htm
    Antarctic researchers from Rice University have discovered one of nature's supreme ironies: On Earth's driest, coldest continent, where surface water rarely exists, flowing liquid water below the ice appears to play a pivotal role in determining the fate of Antarctic ice streams.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2020
  7. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    Please quote the exact sentence of my post you are referring to.
     
  8. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    When the Evil Gestapo Communist Manifesto Republican Party demands a single person build 2000 square feet of heated living space, to prevent the Real Estate "principle of regression" (in essence Government wealth management), YES! See "Lost Rights" by James Bovard.
     
  9. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The part where you don't believe statistics.
     
  10. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What ??? Where does the Republican Party demand that housing be built ??
     
  11. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    More Just Now!

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-warm-water-vital-point-063457873.html
    Warm water found at "vital point" under "doomsday glacier"



    This is NOT
    Man Made Global Warming Antarctic Water.

    This is geothermal!



    Support Static Earth.
    Control Geothermal Global Warming.
    Stop Continental Drift
    Seal The Rifts between Tectonic Plates.
    Especially the North American at Eurasian and Pacific plates.



    "Study Confirms paid for Science delivers desired analysis".
    EIRs.
    Drug Studies.
    ;)
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2020
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  12. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    At no point in that article does anyone claim the source of the warming is geothermal.
     
  13. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Of course not.
    It would jeopardize their funding
    Lucky they share the warm water finding.
    WHERE DO YOU THINK THAT WARM GETS ITS' THERMAL ENERGY?

    Connect The Dots Yourself.
    What is the heat source for that warm water? :hmm:

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Must be all that cash they are getting from the Sweet Air Conditioning Lobbying Groups.
     
  15. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    https://www.godownsize.com/where-build-tiny-house-laws/

    Just about everywhere the REPUBLICAN party restricts house sizes, build a house sometime and find out. Pick any county in any State that you know is Republican and you will find the Zoning NAZIS, just as I pointed out a Democrat stronghold (punch in on their website see the zoning laws).

    When Raygun said they should have just bought a New York homeless couple a house when they paid their rent of $30,000 to house them, I decided to see if it was possible. When I tried to sell an acre of land with trailer I had at the time, Cotter Pin interest rate, the Republican Commie Pinko's told everyone that they would have to remove the trailer, I had to fight them before I could sell. When I tried to build an 800 Square foot house in another county the same size as my neighbor's house I was forbidden to do so, had to build 1100 square feet, still came in under budget, now its a 2000 square foot requirement. Then later when I had a problem with zoning, and the Democrat and the young blonde Republican voted in my favor all the gray headed Republicans voted against me, so I too six hours in the oldest courthouse in Georgia to find each every single gray head had been a Democrat.

    All it takes is a little research on zoning, pick any county anywhere, and you will find the commie pinko Republican Nazis demanding conformity to their house sizes to prevent the Real Estate Principle of Regression. I had a Real Estate license once.

    The point is for this topic that house size, heated living space, is directly related to carbon footprint.
     
  16. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not sure what journey you are on but I’m off the bus. Goodbye.
     
  17. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    Scared to find out the truth about the Republican Commie Pinko Gestapo Gubermint? It figures.
     
  18. guavaball

    guavaball Well-Known Member

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    And this is exactly why you keep losing this debate. When you are cornered with the facts you cant accept them.
     
  19. Pred

    Pred Well-Known Member

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    Are you saying govt determine how builders build new homes? Builders use a simple model. How many homes can they shove onto the smallest lot sizes where people will be willing to buy. I live in builders paradise, south FL that isn’t Republican controlled. I wish zoning laws were set up to stop all the building or to stop zero lot line mega communities from being built. I wonder if our fearless leaders are keeping track of how much water we actually have, to support all the people? There is NO REASON we need 10 homes built on land that should have 1/2 the homes. We have $million homes where you nearly jump from rooftop to roof top:) Too many people. I really don’t think we need more. It’s getting crowded enough.
     
  20. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    It has nothing to do with construction methods. What is the minimum square feet in your area, 750?

    The Republican county I last lived in required 2.5 acres to build, they claimed it was because of “watershed.” They were not interested in density with the 2000 square foot requirement they later passed, because a bigger house means more people. The reason they didn’t want smaller houses on 2.5 acres had to do with the district above them. John Lewis’s district, they were interested in keeping them out. We had less than 6% Negroid. You see I had a Gingrich bumper sticker, before they tried to Gerrymander him out and put us in Lewis’s district, I did a friend of the court on that one and the map was stopped. Facts are simply facts.

    More land, bigger house, it costs more; keeps the uppity ******’s house value from plummeting. Like when Raygun was president and I mentioned at work wanting to build a smaller house, and complaining about zoning laws, a black from DeKalb County stated, “I don’t want some poor ****** living next door to me.” (His exact use of the “N” word) He was just stating exactly what the others were saying, except the Republicans (old Southern Democrats) called it “watershed.”

    A tiny house under a tree canopy on 2.5 acres would have a much smaller carbon footprint, and they could subsistence farm an acre.
     
  21. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Can’t make this up. ^^^^
     
  22. JCS

    JCS Well-Known Member Donor

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    Sorry for the delay in response. Been a busy week. Anyway...I wanted to get back to this interesting topic.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------​

    I believe you're making more out of the article than is present. Some points to make from the article you posted:

    * Article states: The maps...revealed how the ice retreated during a period of global warming after Earth's last ice age.

    If it was a period of global warming then (a) what was causing the global warming, (b) to what extent was the glacial retreat due to volcanism, and (c) how did global warming & ocean currents also affect the glacier in question? There's no suggestion by the researchers that volcanism alone caused the ice to retreat, but may have contributed to it...nor to what extent because we don't know how much the surface melt and/or warmer ocean currents (from global warming) had affected the retreat. Also, (d) at what point during glacial retreat was volcanism a contribution? This is an important question because glacial melt/retreat may cause underlying volcanoes to become unstable & more active (which would add to heating & melting).

    * Article states: One thing we know from surface observations is that some of these ice streams move at velocities of hundreds of meters per year [...] We also know that ice, by itself, is only capable of flowing at velocities of no more than tens of meters per year. That means the ice is being helped along. It's sliding on water or mud or both.

    In an earlier post I had already addressed the potential for subglacial melt to speed movement of ice streams. Surface melt can contribute greatly to this by flowing & working its way down to the subglacial bed. The normal means by which glaciers move is by gravity & sheer weight, though movement can be enhanced by subglacial melt. Subglacial melt can occur with or without volcanism/geothermal heating.

    * Article states: Antarctica is home to dozens of volcanoes, which can heat ice from below. Simkins found at least 20 lakes in the fossil river system, along with evidence that water built up and drained from the lakes in episodic bursts rather than a steady stream. She worked with Rice co-author and volcanologist Helge Gonnermann to confirm that nearby volcanoes could have provided the necessary heat to feed the lakes.

    We're told that "nearby" volcanoes "could have provided the necessary heat to feed the lakes." But how much heat & to what extent "could" the "nearby" volcanoes have contributed to the fossil drainage system? And how much of these subglacial lakes could have been fed by surface melt reaching the bedrock beneath the glacier?

    Also, pressure from the weight of the glacier helps keep the volcano stable (and even cause the bedrock to rise). Melting at the base can uncap magma, triggering more volcanic activity. Did the ancient subglacial lakes have any bearing on the stability of the nearby volcanoes?

    * Article states: He said another key finding is that drainage through the river system took place on a time scale measured in tens to several hundreds of years.

    (a) The use of the word "drainage" (rather than "the forming/formation" of the drainage system) is important. It tells us that the flow of water draining from the upstream lake to the downstream lake is quite slow. It's not flowing rapidly like a normal river does. Therefore, if the accelerated glacial melt/retreat observed worldwide today is being influenced by subglacial lakes/rivers similar to the ancient ones, then they cannot be the dominant force causing the melt.

    The links I posted earlier discuss how subglacial melt may potentially contribute to ice decline by providing lubrication to speed up ice movement out to sea, but they're not considered either the initial or dominant force in glacial melting/retreat.

    (b) The article notes volcanism as a possible factor in the development of subglacial lakes/rivers, but not the nature of glacial retreat/melt as a whole. Did volcanism cause a rapid decline of the ancient glacier only by moving it along faster? What was going on at the glacier's surface? What was going on at the grounding line? What effect did warmer ocean currents have? We don't know because we're looking only at a subglacial fossil lake/river drainage system, not the portion of the glacier itself which is no longer in that spot.

    * Article states: It's clear from the fossil record that these drainage systems can be large and long-lived...

    If the drainage system can be "large & long-lived", then the flow/drainage must be slow enough to allow the lakes/river to build up and become "large & long-lived." What this means is that these subglacial bodies of water cannot be a dominant force in the relatively sudden & rapid glacial/ice sheet melting observed worldwide.

    * The article refers to the discovery of an ancient fossil subglacial drainage system during a time when there was weather and/or geologic extremes. But it tells us nothing about what's causing today's accelerated glacial melt/retreat. Subglacial dynamics is, nonetheless, an interesting topic worth learning more about...though not a whole lot is known about it at this time due to the difficulties in accessing this region. We do know much more about the grounding zone where the ice sheets meet the sea, and where warmer ocean currents are having a profound effect on glacial melt, movement, and instability. We're also aware of supraglacial (on the surface) lakes & rivers which are growing in size & numbers, also due to global warming. These flow & drain downward into the base of the glacier towards the bedrock & grounding line, and also contributing to glacial melt, movement, and instability.
     
  23. JCS

    JCS Well-Known Member Donor

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    The article you posted states:

    While researchers have observed the recession of the Thwaites Glacier for a decade, this marks the first time they detected the presence of warm water – found at a "vital point" beneath the glacier.

    "The fact that such warm water was just now recorded by our team along a section of Thwaites grounding zone where we have known the glacier is melting suggests that it may be undergoing an unstoppable retreat that has huge implications for global sea-level rise,"...


    Note the researchers are looking at the grounding line/zone of the glacier, which is a critical region of the glacier. The grounding line is the most exposed glacial region to oceanic currents that erode the ice, it is the point where warmer ocean water begins to seep beneath the glacier beyond the grounding line, and it is the region that (if weakened/thinned) can destabilize the glacier & cause calving.


    [​IMG]
    Instability processes: These diagrams depict marine ice sheet instability (left) and marine ice cliff instability (right). (a) shows a stable system where the ice shelf buttresses the ice sheet behind it, but warm ocean water melts the ice. Melt shortens the ice shelf (b), and reaches all the way to the grounding line (c). (d) shows ice shelf crevassing and calving. Calving continues (e), and retreats until the ice cliff rises far enough above the water surface to become unstable (f). Image from DeConto and Pollard 2016.

    So the reason researchers didn't mention volcanism/geothermal heating is probably because the melting is indicative of the interaction of bathymetric sills, the Heinrich event, and larger & increasingly warmer ocean currents.

    I've included some good places for you to start to learn more about these things in the next post if you take the time to read it. I'll include some relevant quotes from each source, but you should take the time to read the entirety if you have the time.
     
  24. JCS

    JCS Well-Known Member Donor

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    @Moi621

    The following are relevant quotes from some of the sources I read from regarding bathymetric sills, the Heinrich event, and larger & increasingly warmer ocean currents that I mentioned above. (I'll include some relevant info on glacial volcanoes in the next post.)

    I'll post some interesting info on glaciers & volcanoes next...
     
  25. JCS

    JCS Well-Known Member Donor

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    @Moi621

    ON VOLCANOES BENEATH THE ICE SHEETS


     

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