STUNNING! IHME Reduces Their Model Predictions AGAIN! -- Now Say Peak Is ON EASTER and Only 60,000 D

We have 730,000 cases and 38,000 deaths. That's a mortality rate of over 5%.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdash...4740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6?mod=article_inline

 

So instead of talking about travel controls over and over, you are really talking about something totally different.

Well that's cleared up then.

 

How about the one referenced in the OP and is described in the subject line?

 

And what is your critique of the referenced linked article?

 

I drop in projected deaths is great - I'm thrilled.

But, those data have not affected what medical science and business executives state as being required before we open.

Trump has been told that many times - directly from CDC and medical science and also from the several planning groups that he assembled. He should be woking on TESTING with full effort of the United States.

And, he should be workig on PPE - which we're still failing at. Ten to twenty percent of COVID deaths are coming from healthcare workers who are risking their lives by working in hospitals to save us.

Instead, he yells at WHO - which developed a working test long before we did, and they aren't slowing down. Yet, evidence is that we ARE actually slowing down in testing - or barely keeping the same number of tests.

Trump keeps declaring victory of some sort when we absolutely are NOT doing what's necessary to win.

 

It is not totally different.

We need policy that icludes encouraging people to not travel - to promote the fact that it is risky and like social contact, wearing masks, etc., limiting travel is important.

There are lots of Americans who are willing to follow best practices if they understand them.

 

The expert consensus is that the U.S. will have reported around 47,000 COVID-19 deaths by May 1, with a 90 percent chance of having between 32,000 and 82,000.

Tomorrow, we'll already be at 40,000 dead. And there will be over 7,000 deaths by May 1st.

So we can reasonably predict that the death toll will be at least 60,000 by June. And 80,000 by the end of the summer.

That's if there's no second wave because of Trump's decontainment measures.

 

A 1% mortality rate suggests there were about 4 million Americans who had this roughly the beginning of April, about half of which were in the tri-state area. That's assuming we've caught every death, which we know we haven't. I think there's a lot more in nursing homes we're not catching.

Does that seem right for the start of April? 2 million cases on the East Coast, another million and a half on the West with the rest scattered throughout? Based on S. Korea's numbers, I bet that's about right, give or take a million.

 

Amen. Plus, our reporting methods are pretty screwed up with various states not giving similar data - or any at all, in some cases.

And, we need tests.

 

So you think the US effort is ignoring testing and PPE? I seem to have the opposition impression, but then, I may watch too much news. How exactly are we "failing" in PPE? Or slowing down testing?

Anyway, the point, which you brushed by, is the models NOW suggest that we are looking at a range of deaths comparable to...wait for it...the annual flu (give or take the non-COVID deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths).

 

A range between 32,000 and 82,000 finds 60,000 well within those confines. And you may not have noticed, but in your article that range was determined not by a model but by asking medical people and building the range with their guesses. As far as death rate estimates go, that's the first time I've seen that method rather than a model being quoted. So let's see if their guesses beat the current model. I know mine have!

 

Well that's just your guess, and it's non-confirmable since your counting people who are long dead and buried and unavailable for testing. But the first nursing home deaths were detected in late February, and probably a fifth of coronavirus deaths have been linked to nursing homes. So it seems the authorities have been on top of the nursing home deaths.

 

The critique you asked me to do was based on the numbers we have. As for nursing homes,

At least 7,300 people living in long-term care have died in the COVID-19 outbreak, a survey of state records by ABC News found. The actual count is very likely far higher, advocates for seniors believe, in part because the available data only covers 19 states where governors' offices and state departments of health have kept track. Other states do not yet report this data and did not reply to requests for this information.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/insid...rings-isolation-7300-deaths/story?id=70225836

 

Not good if that is only 40% of all reported long-care facilities.

 

"Died in" isn't the same as "died of."

 

You're right. However, we know from the Washington outbreak that this virus is devastating to the nursing home population, and it's absurd to think what happened in Washington isn't happening across the country. When we get the numbers from all these nursing homes, the death count will be heavily revised upwards.

 

OK - over and over again you make claims about what i said that are ABSOLUTELY and OBVIOUSLY FALSE.

I'm really getting tired of that kind of 3rd grade BS.

 

So, you like YOUR guesses more than someone else's guesses - shocking!

There is LOTS of evidence that we are NOT on top of the nursing home situation AT ALL. The recent Andover case of finding numerous dead bodies after a police report that one body was seen laying out side is a case in point. Nursing facilities don't necessarily receive monitoring that could detect when they are overwhelmed by COVID19.

Another source of uncounted deaths comes from death records. There are statistics for how many people usually die in a county or other locality. There have been HUGE spikes in that data that are NOT accounted for by rported COVID19 cases - and can not be accounted for by any other events. A large percent are people who died at home.

These people don't get tested and thus they don't get counted. One reason is that we have FAR too few tests to test the dead.

 

For fatalities to be that low, those models assume we maintain this social distancing act or implement widespread testing and tracing (which we're obviously not even close to pulling off).

In any case, when's the last time the flu killed 40,000 people in one month? 1918. And it looks like we'll actually lose 60k by the end of this month.

 

OK. I'm not sure what your argument is.

 

I'll tell you right now that I regard those sorts of statistical analysis, where the death rates are compared to previous years, as BS. They are a function of certain parties trying to boost the number of COVID deaths in a way that doesn't require any evidence of actual COVID. It's the same trick Puerto Rico tried with Hurricane Maria. They had a death rate based on death certificates, but wanted more money so they hired an Ivy League team to do a statistical analysis, and poof, more Hurricane Maria deaths.

For a certain type of liberal, statistical analysis is far superior to actual evidence because they want to tell a story and don't want evidence or facts to stand in their way. Sort of how models were predicting 2.2 million US COVID deaths, even though at this point it's clear that was always ridiculous.

 

Unfortunately I suspect that you correct. The combination of asymptomatic people and an absence of adequate testing is putting all of these seniors at risk and not just the ones in nursing homes. There are a great many who receive in home care from aid workers who visit multiple people per day. Then there are meals on wheels and deliveries of groceries and medications.

The final death toll might only become known after the Census assuming that this Pandemic is over before that occurs.

 

Could you provide a source to support this? Or otherwise-quantify "HUGE"? ~2.8-2.9 million people die in this country each year. Should we expect the "HUGE spikes in that data" to push that number up to ... what? 3 million in 2020? 3.5 million? 4 million? Or is it going to be right in line with previous years, at about 2.8-2.9 million?

ETA: here is an article that parallels my thoughts in this matter, and is far more well-written than my posts could ever hope to be.

 

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/how-many-people-have-died-in-nyc-during-the-covid-pandemic

This describes a study done to estimate the discrepency between the average normal death rate wth the death rate during the same period this year.

It shows the discrepency between the unusually high death rate and the number of those reported to have died from COVID.

 

Recognizing that NYC is the American epicenter of coronavirus deaths, and so this effect is probably exaggerated there, the analysis finds an extra 3k "excess deaths" in NYC, on top of the 10k confirmed deaths. If that 30% "excess death" rate were to hold true for the entire nation (and, as I mentioned there are some good arguments about why it probably won't), we're talking about an extra ~20k coronavirus-related deaths across the country that might not be captured by official counts. Not enough to substantially impact our ~2.8-2.9 million annual fatalities.