Tests show 14% of people immune to covid-19 in one German Town

The municipality of Gangelt, near the border with the Netherlands, was hard hit by covid-19 after a February carnival celebration drew thousands to the town, turning it into an accidental petri dish.

“To me it looks like we don’t yet have a large fraction of the population exposed,” says Nicholas Christakis, a doctor and social science researcher at Yale University. “They had carnivals and festivals, but only 14% are positive. That means there is a lot more to go even in a hard-hit part of Germany.”
https://www.technologyreview.com/20...ow-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

This is preliminary, but it shows that even in a hard-hit area, not a whole lot of people get infected. It will make social distancing easier, but also makes the virus much more dangerous.

I notice a lot of Right Wingers (e.g., Tucker Carlson) have been pinning their hopes that there are masses of asymptomatic people out there, but it's looking more and more like that's not the case.

But pretend some crazy high number of people have this, like 100 million Americans. That would mean we would have to go through another cycle of infection and losing 30,000+ people to get herd immunity. And then we would be (mostly) done with it. In that case, should we write off tens of thousands of mostly old sick people to open up the country again and put this behind us?

 

14% would mean 45,000,000 Americans have had it and most didn't even know. We're wrecking our economy for that?

 

We're taking an economic hit because doctors and nurses are stretched to the breaking point, and unless you're willing to volunteer to clean hospital rooms and care for infected patients, then you'll put selfish wants aside for a few seconds and
put yourself in their shoes.

Sometimes, the world ain't all about you.

 

Nonsense, we're taking an economic hit because the economy has been intentionally crashed, more doctors would be irrelevant. If 45,000,000 Americans pass the antibody test meaning they're immune and can't pass it on they at least should be able to go back to work. Quarantine the elderly and other vulnerable groups.

 

Gangelt had a mortality rate of 0.4%, that would mean 180,000 dead Americans out of the 45,000,000.

 

Japan just found that a number of infected people have either been re-infected or are holding on to the disease much longer
than originally thought. The antibody question is still a question - not a certainty.

 

What? The 45 million would be the immune. There would be no deaths in the immune group...

 

And which would mean the overall mortality rate is much less than what we're being told.

 

What percent of the population normally contracts any respiratory virus ?

What percent of the population contracts new strains of influenza when they spread across the globe?

Do you know?

 

Was this directed at me?

 

And we would still be only 25% of the way to herd immunity.

 

No.

 

Really? First you have to be infected and after the infection you are immune. Out of the infected 0.4% would die and if the health system is under stress the 0.4% can change to a far higher number.

 

But it's about you, you and you and you and them too(if you consider they also have to put food on the plates of their loved ones.) We cannot live in our "new reality" forever. Hospitals and Scientists cannot take their newly acquired Animal Farm status for long.

In our country, ours particularly the golden goose is the citizen, not the scientist or (insert expert here).

 

More then 180,000 Americans die every month from other than Coronavirus. Since the first death from Coronavirus in the US on Feb 29 the death toll from Coronavirus is around 20,000 and the death toll from other than Coronavirus is 282,725. I would also like to note that the majority of the 20,000 deaths from Coronavirus were the elderly with underlying issues such as emphysema, cancer, organ failure and the like.

 

In Lombardy, Italy, the usual number of total deaths doubled in the period 23rd February to 21st March 2020 from 10,000 (averaged over previous 5 years for the same period of time) to 19,000. What would you say accounted for the extra 9000 deaths?

 

Doctors and nurses are stretched to the breaking point in New York and a few other hotspots. That's not true for most of the country.

 

Look at Italy or France. At a certain point every health system can be overwhelmed by the Coronavirus and then the mortality can be at 10%. Gangelt a community with 12,000 inhabitants had a vey strict lockdown and all medical supply needed. The study also claims that the immunity will be limited in a range from 6 to 18 months.

https://www.deutschland.de/en/topic...sis-finding-a-way-out-of-quarantine-heinsberg

"So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proven," explained Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck.

Instead, the major outbreaks have been the result of close get-togethers over a longer period of time, he said.

That's demonstrated in, for example, outbreaks that have stemmed from après-ski parties in Ischgl, at football matches in Bergamo or at carnival celebrations in the municipality of Gangelt in the Heinsberg district of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Streeck's team is "interviewing patients in order to identify possible causal chains with pre-existing conditions and to generate prevention recommendations for the entire German and European population," reports the North-Rhine Westphalia state government.

According to his previous research results, he believes "that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has actually coughed in their hand and then reached for it.

"After that, you have to reach for the door handle yourself and touch your face," he said. It is not yet possible to say how long the virus can remain on a door handle because not enough studies have been carried out.

Streeck added: "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface."

According to current findings, it is unlikely that imported goods such as food or consumer goods, toys, tools, computers, clothing or shoes could be a source of infection.

Experts from the US Institute of Health NIH and the CSC, the epidemic control agency, however, had come to the conclusion that the coronavirus can survive for up to three days on plastics or stainless steel, 24 hours on paper and up to three hours in aerosols.

The Robert Koch Institute points out, however, that scientific studies on this topic are carried out under experimental conditions and don't reflect the realistic risk of transmission in everyday life.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/ho...ers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot