The Collapse of IPCC Credibility

As expected, the fly tries to avoid the swatter.
The thread topic is the collapse of IPCC credibility. The exposition of that collapse is not a "gish gallop." If you do not wish to discuss the topic that's certainly your right, but your unsupported rant adds nothing.

 

Neither the AMOC nor the Gulf Stream is in any danger of collapse.

 

Both are

 

Wrong, USA Today, Ocean Currents Aren’t Near Collapse
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS JULY 28, 2023

A recent article in USA Today, titled “Atlantic Ocean current could collapse soon. How you may endure dramatic weather changes,” claims that a major ocean current system is likely to slow down and collapse as soon as 2025. This claim is based on computer model projections of the future based assumptions about past ocean current behavior and the factors which drive ocean currents. Actual data and its use is limited. The study’s conclusions are unsubstantiated by existing evidence and are contradicted by research which indicates that the Atlantic Ocean currents are likely speeding up.

The USA Today’s article is based on an article published in Nature which examines the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), “a large system of ocean currents that carry warm water from the tropics into the North Atlantic.” The article and the study it references says the AMOC could collapse “by the middle of the century, or possibly any time from 2025 onward, because of human-caused climate change.” The research suggests that freshwater intrusion from Greenland meltwater will change the composition of the water and shut down the ocean conveyor system which moves hot and cold water around the Atlantic. . . .

A widely reported 2020 study published in Science came to the exact opposite conclusion with its authors writing “[f]or nearly 25 years the currents have been rapidly speeding up, partly because of global warming.” Climate change can’t be both accelerating and decelerating the same ocean currents simultaneously.

The acceleration was described as equally alarming. The flip-flopping or contradictory views were covered by Climate Realism, here, here, and here, for example.

The difference between the studies that predict these polar opposite scenarios is that the recent studies that show acceleration have relied primarily on empirical evidence, such as this one by Oziel, et al. from 2021, and a confirming study that combines modeling and empirical data by Smedsrud et al. also in 2021, but the studies that show slowing seem to based their predictions almost exclusively numerical model outputs. . . .

 

I'm sorry you are in denial, but i don't really care.

 

As you wish. I'm with the science, so I offer it whenever I have the chance.

 

Time is on my side.

 

Unlikely. Science erodes the foundation of climate alarmism every day.

 

Nope. But you keep at it Galileo.

 

I'm a mere follower of the data.
How Climate Change Pseudoscience Became Publicly Accepted

 

As expected, when challenged to back up any of your Gish Gallop claims, you deflected.

And I addressed it directly, by pointing out that you have no evidence for such a thing.

You're quite skilled at running from the topics you bring up. It's almost as if you're just reposting bad propaganda, stuff you haven't even looked at it yourself.

 

What you actually did was dodge the thread topic and attempt an end run by unsupported ranting. Here's an excerpt from the OP link.
" . . . The CLINTEL Report provides a much needed critical evaluation and intellectual counterpoint to the IPCC AR6.

There is a lot of good material in the AR6 WG1 Report, but there is also a lot of cherry picking and flat out errors in the Report (the AR6 WG2 Report is just flat out bad). With any kind of serious review, or if the author teams have been sufficiently diverse, we would not see so many of these kinds of errors. Unfortunately, the IPCC defines “diversity” in terms of gender, race and developed versus underdeveloped countries; actual diversity of thought and perspective is dismissed in favor of promoting the politically mandated narrative from the UN.

The consensus disease that that was caught by the IPCC following publication of the First Assessment Report in 1990, combined with pressures from policy makers, is resulting in documents that don’t reflect the broad disagreement and uncertainties on these complex topics. The IPCC’s mandated narrative has become very stale. Worse yet, it is becoming increasingly irrelevant to policy making by continuing to focus on extreme emissions scenarios and the embarrassing cherry picking that is required to support the “climate crisis” narrative that is so beloved by UN officials.

In any event, UN-driven climate policy has moved well past any moorings in climate science, even the relatively alarming version reported by the IPCC. The insane policies and deadlines tied to greenhouse gas emissions are simply at odds with the reality of our understanding of climate change and the uncertainties, and with broader considerations of human well being."

 

Dismissing a table of contents as a Gish Gallop is the tactic of someone who is trying to evade the facts.

You mean, the way you are unable to do...?

As they say in Japan, "It's mirror time!"

That would be more like a Gish Gallop.

That is a claim lacking any evidence.

Evidence?

In your imagination.

Baldly false claim.

Use of the term, "denier" erases any credibility you might have had.

 

A Nobelist weighs in.
Video: 2022 Nobel physics prize winner John Clauser rips climate idiocy, No ‘climate crisis’ and IPCC ‘one of the worst sources of dangerous misinformation’
Charles Rotter
2022 Nobel physics winner John Clauser ripped the pseudoscience and ‘techno-con’ that is climate last week in South Korea. . . .

 

Politics + Scientists = Fake Political Science

Another reason why there is a "Replication Crisis".

“Much ink has been spilled over the “replication crisis” in the last decade and a half, including here at Vox.
***Researchers have discovered, over and over, that lots of findings in fields like psychology, sociology, medicine, and economics don’t hold up when other researchers try to replicate them.***

This conversation was fueled in part by John Ioannidis’s 2005 article “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False” and by the controversy around a 2011 paper that used then-standard statistical methods to find that people have precognition. But since then, many researchers have explored the replication crisis from different angles. ***Why are research findings so often unreliable?*** Is the problem just that we test for “statistical significance” — the likelihood that similarly strong results could have occurred by chance — in a nuance-free way? Is it that null results (that is, when a study finds no detectable effects) are ignored while positive ones make it into journals?

A recent write-up by Alvaro de Menard, a participant in the Defense Advanced Research Project’s Agency’s (DARPA) replication markets project (more on this below), makes the case for a more depressing view: ***The processes that lead to unreliable research findings are routine, well understood, predictable, and in principle pretty easy to avoid.*** And yet, he argues, we’re still not improving the quality and rigor of social science research.”
VOX, “replication crisis” for a decade. Have we learned anything?, By Kelsey Piper Oct 14, 2020. (***mine)
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21504366/science-replication-crisis-peer-review-statistics

 

Two More Studies Indicate Mid-Holocene Sea Levels Were 2-6 Meters Higher Than Present
By Kenneth Richard on 31. July 2023

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The belief that modern sea levels are unprecedentedly high takes another hit.
In southern South America sea levels were ~6 meters higher than today from 8000-6000 years ago, when CO2 hovered around 265 ppm but it was much warmer with less ice. Sea levels then gradually fell to present levels, the lowest in 8000 years.

“This sea level curve suggests that the LGM lowstand sea level occurred at ~18 ka BP at ~105 m below present sea level. The onset of the marine transgression resulted in rapid sea‐level rise in the Early Holocene, with a highstand of ~6 m above present between 8 and 6 ka BP, followed by a progressive fall to its present position.” – Desiage et al., 2023



Image Source: Desiage et al., 2023
Relative sea level on the coasts of Japan was approximately 2-5 meters higher than today during the Mid-Holocene, then fell to 1 to 1.5 meters higher than today during the Medieval Warm Period before continuing falling to present levels.

“It is known that RSL was higher than today in the mid-Holocene ‘far-field’, remote from the sites of former glaciation and subsequent isostatic rebound (Yokoyama et al., 2012, 2019a; Yokoyama and Purcell, 2021). This far-field elevation is known as the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand (HHS). … The RSL in the Harutachi area at 6000 years ago is estimated to be 0.5–2.5 m asl [above present sea level] (Okuno et al., 2014). … In Utoma, sea regression began around 3.5 kyr cal BP and the altitude of the local HHS is reported to be 2–3 m asl (Nakanishi et al., 2020a). In the Shizunai area, the HHS period continued until ∼4.0 kyr cal BP, when the sea level at that time was 4–5 m asl before falling to 1.0–1.5 m asl at 1.5–1.0 kyr cal BP (Nakanishi et al., 2022a).” – Nakanishi et al., 2023



Image Source: Nakanishi et al., 2023

 

Wasting Time with Climate Science?
Kip Hansen
Here I ask a simple question. Are we all wasting our time with climate science? Reading about it, writing about it, worrying about it, fighting about it, arguing about it. . . .

I am speaking of the nonsense one reads and hears from NPR, PBS, BBC, NBC, AP, CNN, Reuters, ABC, the NY Times, the Guardian, the Washington Post – many of whom have openly joined themselves into propaganda cabals ( and this one) dedicated to spreading misleading information about climate and climate change. [A new one has just been announced: GRIST and AP. ] Even when a media organization is not directly associated with one of these collaborative misinformation outlets, their editors and journalists have to face the wrath of those that are – there are few working journalists willing to fight the tide on climate alarmism.

Even the IPCC-boosting Pielke Jr. has been blasting the media for repeating absolutely false narratives on extreme weather — the very same media that repeats endlessly the mindboggling crazy pronouncements of U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres — “the era of global boiling has arrived.”

CLINTEL, has just published an extremely valuable book, “The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC“, widely available, in softcover and eBook formats. The book examines the IPCC’s AR6 and documents biases and errors in the Working Group 1 (Scientific Basis) and Working Group 2 (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) reports. [Disclosure: I contributed one of the chapters – thus have a conflict of interest.]

We see the forked-tongued enemy. A two-pronged approach. First, the underlying science is slightly warped, slightly biased, misleadingly reported in the latest IPCC Assessment Report (AR6) WG1 and WG2. A lot of this is simple confirmation bias and forced-consensus biasing. The truth in is there, but one needs to dodge the rhetoric and look only at the data itself, which is mostly correct. And then, the Summaries for Policy Makers (SPMs) wildly misrepresent what the science sections have said and transmogrify it into something barely recognizable.

From the SPMs, the politicians, media moguls, the Davos Crowd, the Green-New-Dealers, the Great Reset-ers, turn the SPM political opinions into outright lies and give the media propaganda cabals their marching orders. . . .

 

The data continue to compel reversals in the narrative.
High-Arctic Spring and Climate Change: A Tale of Shifting Claims
Charles Rotter
…prior assumptions about the region’s advancing spring season have now been effectively erased. . . .

 

I think the simple answer is yes, it's a waste of time.

Your thread reminded me of some WUWT articles years ago about the Maldives and Kiribati. The Maldives gov't staged an underwater 'meeting,' claiming to be in serious trouble from the IPCC's dire predictions, echoed by MSM. Maybe they got some special funding as a couple of years later the gov't had contracts for five new international airports and 30 new luxury hotels. Seems like a pretty good con job for islands that were soon to be underwater.

Maldivians sink to new low with an underwater publicity stunt
"Members of the Maldives’ Cabinet donned scuba gear and used hand signals Saturday at an underwater meeting staged to highlight the threat of global warming to the lowest-lying nation on earth.

President Mohammed Nasheed and 13 other government officials submerged and took their seats at a table on the sea floor — 20 feet below the surface of a lagoon off Girifushi, an island usually used for military training.

"What we are trying to make people realize is that the Maldives is a frontline state. This is not merely an issue for the Maldives but for the world," Nasheed said."

Message to Maldives president Mohammed Nasheed: your claims are BS
Linked in above article:
Maldives Building Five More Underwater Airports
"News from the Maldives that work is underway on five new airports, with another three in the pipeline.

Speaking at a press conference today, Minister of Transport Dr Ahmed Shamheed said that the ministry’s highest priority currently is the development regional airports."

Developers Dismiss Sea Level Rise Claims – Plan To Build 30 New Luxury Hotels In The Maldives – Nasheed’s Cash Machine
"In 2012 former President of the Maldive Islands Mohamed Nasheed said: "If carbon emissions continue at the rate they are climbing today, my country will be underwater in seven years."

With such a prediction and recalling how the latest UN IPCC report boosted its estimate of sea level rise, and taking into account that CO2 emissions show no signs of abating, you would think the Maldives would be the last place developers would build anything. The Maldives are barely more than a meter above sea level on average."

Remember the threat of flooded atolls and climate refugees due to sea level rise? Never mind.
"In an interview with CNN last month, Anote Tong, the president of Kiribati, insisted that rising sea levels due to global warming will mean “total annihilation” for this nation of 33 coral islands in the Central Pacific and for other atoll island nations like Tuvalu and the Maldives."

And a few months ago:
Tropical Paradise Islands Are Not Sinking and Shrinking…Most Are in Fact Growing!
"On 17 October 2009, the then President of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, convened a cabinet meeting six meters below the surface of the water not far from the island of Girifushi. Nasheed wanted to use the media-effective spectacle to point out that his country is threatened with flooding should the rise in sea levels due to climate change continues.

Similar fears were subsequently expressed by politicians from other island states in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, such as Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Federation of Micronesia. They referred not least to two warnings by the United Nations in 1989 and 2005, which spoke of the imminent demise of the tropical paradises on the shallow coral islands.

However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since had to permanently revise its forecasts regarding sea-level rise: After assuming 100 centimeters by 2100 in 1990, only 38 centimeters remained from 2007 onwards.

But even this could be grossly exaggerated: as a long-term study by the Australian oceanographer Simon Holgate showed, the sea level rose by only ten centimeters between 1904 and 1953 and then by only 7.25 centimeters between 1954 and 2003."

 

So much error. . . .
New Study: Sunshine Duration Changes Over Europe, N. Atlantic Natural, ‘Result Of Internal Variability’
By Kenneth Richard on 7. August 2023

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Changes in cloud cover over Europe and the North Atlantic have been observed to be a significant driver of sunshine duration (SD) changes, and thus climate change, in this region. Changes in cloud cover are “the result of internal variability in the ocean-atmosphere system.”
Previously, the non-linear, oscillatory climate variations over Europe had been assumed to be connected to the sunshine duration variations elicited by anthropogenic pollution (aerosol) mitigation policies.

But a new study (Marsz et al., 2023) presents compelling evidence decadal-scale sunshine duration variations are driven by the internal processes affecting cloud cover, namely the natural thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic (THC NA). This relationship spans the entire period from 1900 to 2018.

“The mechanisms of the THC NA functioning are known and indicate that they are the result of the internal variability in the ocean-atmosphere system.”

“SST changes occur not only because of changes in the amount of radiation reaching the ocean’s surface but also due to the meridonal oceanic heat transport.”

“t is the long-term changes in the thermal condition of the North Atlantic, and not changes in the concentration of aerosols, that would be the primary cause of the long-term change in the SD over Europe.”

“[T]he occurrence of long-term variability in the SD over Europe, manifested in the occurrence of successive phases of dimming and brightening, can be explained without resorting to changes in the concentration of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere.”



Image Source: Marsz et al., 2023

 

The 'Consensus' on Climate Change Is 'Manufactured'
John Stossel, New York Post




We are told climate change is a crisis, and that there is an “overwhelming scientific consensus.” Read More

 

Neither droughts nor floods are made worse by rising temperatures.
New Studies Find No Global Drought Trend Since 1902…Global Flood Magnitudes Decline With Warming
By Kenneth Richard on 14. August 2023

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Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is claimed to intensify hydrological processes. Data analysis indicates it does not.
A paradigm has emerged in recent decades that says there has been and/or will be a worsening of hydrological extremes as a consequence of global warming.

Simplified, the paradigm says that wet gets wetter (flooding) and dry gets drier (drought).

But new global data analyses suggest (a) no trends in drought in the last 120 years (Shi et al., 2022), and (b) declining flood magnitudes as the climate warms (He et al., 2022).

With regard to drought, the global trends indicate there has actually been a de-intensification of meteorological (climate-related) drought from 1959-2014 relative to to 1902-1959.

“The results revealed that: 1) meteorological drought in most climate regions intensified during 1902–1958 but showed a wetting trend during 1959–2014.”



Image Source: Shi et al., 2022
And, likewise, flood magnitudes have not just been flat, but they have been declining as the climate has warmed.

“We find most of the world shows decreases in flood volumes with increasing temperature.”

“[O]bservational records often present more evidence for a decrease in annual flood maxima.”



Image Source: He et al., 2022

 

“There Is No Climate Crisis”…1600 Scientists Worldwide, Nobel Prize Laureate Sign Declaration
By P Gosselin on 15. August 2023

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1609 signatories recently signed a declaration that states there is no climate crisis, thus casting doubt over man’s alleged role in climate change and extreme weather.



Their doubt is based on data showing that natural factors are very much at play, the warming is slower than predicted, the models are unreliable, that CO2 has great benefits and weather disasters have not increased. The media hysteria and weather hype are not supported by data.

There is no climate emergency

Climate science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific. Scientists should openly address uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming, while politicians should dispassionately count the real costs as well as the imagined benefits of their policy measures.

Natural as well as anthropogenic factors cause warming

The geological archive reveals that Earth’s climate has varied as long as the planet has existed, with natural cold and warm phases. The Little Ice Age ended as recently as 1850. Therefore, it is no surprise that we now are experiencing a period of warming.

Warming is far slower than predicted

The world has warmed significantly less than predicted by IPCC on the basis of modeled anthropogenic forcing. The gap between the real world and the modeled world tells us that we are far from understanding climate change.

Climate policy relies on inadequate models

Climate models have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as policy tools. They do not only exaggerate the effect of greenhouse gases, they also ignore the fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 is beneficial.

CO2 is plant food, the basis of all life on Earth

CO2 is not a pollutant. It is essential to all life on Earth. More CO2 is favorable for nature, greening our planet. Additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global plant biomass. It is also profitable for agriculture, increasing the yields of crops worldwide.

Global warming has not increased natural disasters

There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts and suchlike natural disasters, or making them more frequent. However, there is ample evidence that CO2-mitigation measures are as damaging as they are costly.

Climate policy must respect scientific and economic realities

There is no climate emergency. Therefore, there is no cause for panic and alarm. We strongly oppose the harmful and unrealistic net-zero CO2 policy proposed for 2050. Go for adaptation instead of mitigation; adaptation works
whatever the causes are.”

Growing skepticism

Nobel Laureate in Physics Dr John F. Clauser also signed the manifesto.

The message is clear: there is no climate crisis. The number of critical scientists who no longer submit to the dogma of the alleged man-made climate catastrophe is growing.

 

It’s The Asphalt, Stupid! New Study Suggests Global Warming Mostly An Urban Problem
By P Gosselin on 3. September 2023

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A new study published in the scientific peer-reviewed journal, Climate, by 37 researchers from 18 countries suggests that current estimates of global warming are contaminated by urban warming biases.

Press release from CERES Science, hat-tip: Klimanachrichten

The study also suggests that the solar activity estimates considered in the most recent reports by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) likely underestimated the role of the Sun in global warming since the 19th century.

It is well-known that cities are warmer than the surrounding countryside. While urban areas only account for less than 4% of the global land surface, many of the weather stations used for calculating global temperatures are located in urban areas. For this reason, some scientists have been concerned that the current global warming estimates may have been contaminated by urban heat island effects. In their latest report, the IPCC estimated that urban warming accounted for less than 10% of global warming. However, this new study suggests that urban warming might account for up to 40% of the warming since 1850.


The study also found that the IPCC’s chosen estimate of solar activity appeared to have prematurely ruled out a substantial role for the Sun in the observed warming.

Solar activity plays a role

When the authors analyzed the temperature data only using the IPCC’s solar dataset, they could not explain any of the warming since the mid-20th century. That is, they replicated the IPCC’s iconic finding that global warming is mostly human-caused. However, when the authors repeated the analysis using a different estimate of solar activity – one that is often used by the scientific community – they found that most of the warming and cooling trends of the rural data could actually be explained in terms of changing solar activity.

The lead author of the study, Dr. Willie Soon, of the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES-Science.com) described the implications of their findings,

“For many years, the general public has been assuming that the science on climate change is settled. This new study shows that this is not the case.”

Another author of the study, Prof. Ana Elias, the Director of the Laboratorio de Ionosfera, Atmósfera Neutra y Magnetosfera (LIANM) at the Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Argentina, explained:

“This analysis opens the door to a proper scientific investigation into the causes of climate change.”


This study finds similar conclusions to another study that was recently published in a separate scientific peer-reviewed journal, Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics. This other study involved many of the same co-authors (led by Dr. Ronan Connolly, also at the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences). It took a different approach to analyzing the causes of climate change – using an additional 25 estimates of solar activity and three extra temperature estimates.

 

New Study: Up To 87% Of Modern Warming Can Be Explained By Variations In Solar Activity
By Kenneth Richard on 4. September 2023

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Nearly all of the alleged anthropogenic link to climate change can be removed simply by exchanging and/or replacing biased temperature and solar activity data sets.
A new study authored by 37 scientists in the journal Climate finds using rural-only Northern Hemisphere temperature data (i.e., removing artificial, non-climatic urban heat effects) reduces the post-1850 warming trend from 0.89°C per century to 0.55°C per century.

Further, using a total solar irradiance (TSI) dataset neglected by the IPCC (Hoyt and Schatten, 1993, updated to present) allows TSI to explain up to 87% of modern warming.

Variations in cloud cover, albedo, and natural ocean circulations may also be factors arising from internal climate variability that could explain modern climate changes.

In summary, then, much of modern global warming’s alleged link to human activity may have been formulated by selecting data that align with the hypothesis, and neglecting or dismissing data which do not.



Image Source: Soon et al., 2023