The End of the Current Climate Consensus?

Physicists’ Lab Experiment Shows A CO2 Increase From 0.04% To 100% Leads To No Observable Warming
By Kenneth Richard on 1. April 2021

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Two University of Oslo physicists designed several variations of a tabletop experiment trying to confirm the IPCC’s claimed CO2-forcing capacity. Instead they found (a) 100% (1,000,000 ppm) CO2 “heats” air to about the same temperature that non-greenhouse gases (N2, O2 [air], Ar) do, and (b) no significant temperature difference in containers with 0.04% vs. 100% CO2.
Observations, experiments do not support a large forcing effect for CO2

Real-world outdoor observations indicate that even a massive variance in the CO2 concentration, from 0.1% to 75% over the course of a 24-hour period over a mofette field, has no detectable effect in stimulating changes to the surface temperature. Instead, the CO2 concentration changes in response to the temperature.

Indoor tabletop experiments also demonstrate there is a very small temperature difference when adding 100% CO2 to a container. And even this tiny temperature change can be attributed to the reduction in convective cooling effects of adding CO2 molecules, not the radiative or “greenhouse” effects of CO2.

There is also no temperature difference detected when comparing CO2’s “heating” capacity to that of a non-greenhouse gas like Argon (Wagoner et al., 2010), as the “temperature rose by approximately the same amount and at the same rate as for CO2” when 100% Argon was used.

Another study questions claims of CO2’s temperature-forcing effect

And now a recently published study (Seim and Olsen, 2020) further affirms these experimental observations. The authors tested the forcing effects of increased IR radiation on temperature using a specially-designed meter-long chamber, a 500 watt halogen bulb, and IR radiation detectors. . . .

 

American nuclear subs can successfully operate with CO2 levels over 1000 ppm. They have on the subs a special candle they burn and it produces oxygen for the ship.

It seems feasible to burn such candles all over America to produce more O2.



https://minearc.com/blog/oxygen-candlesproviding-emergency-air/

 

New Study: Models Fitting Modern Period “Just An Illusion”… CO2 Role Much Less Than IPCC Claims
By P Gosselin on 3. April 2021

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A new paper authored by distinguished climate researcher Nicola Scafetta and published in the journal Atmosphere titled Reconstruction of the Interannual to Millennial Scale Patterns of the Global Surface Temperature concludes that humans are only responsible for half, at most, of the recent warming.

The IPCC climate models fail to properly take natural oscillations into account.

Hat-tip Die kalte Sonne.

Dr. Scafetta, a research scientist at the University of Napoli Federico II, and formerly an adjunct assistant professor at Duke University, examined data and identified an array of internal climate system and external cycles to explain the ongoing discrepancy between IPCC models and the past climate.

Scafetta’s reconstruction since 1000 A.D. yielded a curve that fit extremely well to that of the 2005 Moberg reconstruction and the modern HadCRUT 4.2 dataset:



Once the natural and the anthropogenic components were accounted for, it could be determined how much each impacted the climate. Scafetta’s result, highlighted in yellow:



Scafetta’s 1.5°C climate sensitivity for doubling of CO2 is only about half of the IPCC’s expected average of 3°C. . . .

 

The alarmists are upset over what Professor Richard Lindzen calls hundredths of a degree change due to humans.
Were it up to the alarmists, Chickens would lay scrambled eggs.

 

More evidence for a powerful solar-climate connection.

New study ties solar variability to the onset of decadal La Nina events
Charles Rotter
The paper does not delve into what physical connection between the Sun and Earth could be responsible for the correlation, but the authors note that there are several possibilities that…

 

CO2 Levels Highest in 3.6 Million Years, Yet Temperatures Are Not Following Suit
CLIMATE RECORD APRIL 21, 2021

 

Bingo. CO2 follows temperature (by the mechanism of its solubility in sea water), not the other way around. CO2 was high 3.6Mya because it was so much warmer then, not the other way around.

 

Surprising Results: Global Snowfall Rate Increases 3% Over The Past 40 Years
By P Gosselin on 5. May 2021

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Blogger Zoe Phin was curious about global snowfall trend in our era of “extreme global warming”. The results of a comprehensive analysis provide a surprise.

To find out what the global snowfall trend has been, the hotshot data analyst diligently downloaded all available monthly NASA images from 1980 to 2020 (inclusive), such as the one shown below, and then converted the pixel colors back to data using the provided scale.


Image source: Zoe Phin.

It seems NASA does not make this data directly available, or at least makes it almost impossible to find, and so for Zoe it was the only way for her to extract the dataset.

“As far as I know, you will not see this anywhere else,” she notes at her site.

Global snowfall rises 3% since 1980

After crunching all the data, here’s the global snowfall trend that emerges:



Snowfall in decigrams/m2/s. Chart: Zoe Phin

Lo and behold, “snowfall has increased by nearly 3 percent over the last four decades,” she concludes. Globally it went from 0.2773 to 0.2854 decigrams/m2/s, which is +2.90% more. . . .

 

Paradigm-Busting New Study Affirms CO2 Doesn’t Drive Climate – Water, Clouds Do
By Kenneth Richard on 24. May 2021

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A professor of hydrology from the University of Athens eviscerates the “naïve” paradigm that says the natural state of Earth’s climate is constancy and stability, only changing when an “external agent” (i.e., a rapid increase in fossil fuel emissions ) acts upon it. Instead, (a) water is the main element driving climate and (b) the alleged human contribution to heat exchange is 2100 times smaller than Earth’s natural energy fluxes.


Koutsoyiannis, 2021
Selected key points from Dr. Koutsiannis’ new paper in the journal Water. . . .

 

More evidence that CO2 isn't that important.
“Major Scientific Breakthrough”…Scientists “Step Closer To Predicting North Atlantic Climate”
By P Gosselin on 28. May 2021

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A team of scientists believe they’ve made a forecasting breakthrough, suggesting the NAO is in fact highly predictable.

Especially Europe’s winter temperatures are modulated by the North Atlantic atmospheric pressure pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

As the name implies, it describes the natural fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. These fluctuations control the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic, and thus much of Europe’s weather. It has nothing to do with CO2.

Promise of greater skill at seasonal forecasts

Having the ability to predict these fluctuations months ahead naturally would be a very useful tool for agriculture, commerce and overall preparedness.

Now German Die kalte Sonne reports in their 40th video how researchers have made “a breakthrough” forecasting the NAO. In a recent paper appearing in the journal Nature titled: “North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply“, by Smith et al. . . .

 

More evidence for the solar climate hypothesis.

“Likelihood Of A Sub-Cooled Summer For Europe In 2021”, Hale Solar Cycle Suggests
By P Gosselin on 30. May 2021

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Significant influence of solar activity on winter temperature in Scandinavian polar night
So far, much of Europe has seen a cold and wet 2021. It may be related to solar cycles.

An essay at Die kalte Sonne by Dr. Ludger Laurenz looks at the relationship between solar activity and weather trends, and believes this summer’s temperature will be 1.5°C lower.

There are many scientific opinions about solar activity’s impact on weather and climate, which differ and contradict each other. For example, a new publication by Leamon et al. provides an important building block for uncovering solar influence. Background here. . . .

 

The "consensus" climate explanation is eroding at its foundation.
New Study: Burden Of Proof Is On AGW Proponents As Ice Cores ‘Invalidate’ CO2-Driven Climate Change
By Kenneth Richard on 31. May 2021

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A French physicist recounts the evidence affirming temperature changes are the cause of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations throughout the last 423 thousand years of the ice core record, thus invalidating the claims of more than a negligible role for CO2 in affecting climate changes.
In a new study Dr. Pascal Richet re-emphasizes the “most fundamental tenet of science, the principle of non-contradiction” in reviewing the extensive ice core evidence showing CO2 changes lag behind temperature changes by as much as 7,000 years – the “opposite conclusion” of “a driving role [for] CO2 assigned by climate models”.

This fundamental failure of cause-effect experimental evidence “invalidates” claims CO2 is a key climate forcing agent. Therefore, as Dr. Richet urges, “one should then reject the Arrhenian paradigm” because a “cardinal rule in science is to reject a hypothesis that clearly contradicts the experimental findings it is supposed to account for”. . . .

 

Zoe's analysis is simplistic to say the least. First, there is quite a bit of scientific research that supports a positive energy imbalance and that
GHG emissions are changing the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere.
We know this from ocean heat measurements and also from precision
satellite measurements associated with CERES/AIRS of long-wave,
short-wave, water vapor, albedo, and cloud anomalies. She is forgetting that
when we have clear-sky conditions both short-wave and long-wave radiaition
decline by approximately equal amounts, and they increase for all-sky
conditions. Very shoddy analysis.

 

I am not surprised that you disagree. I am surprised that you think a little arm-waving makes a persuasive rebuttal.

 

But not as simplistic as anti-fossil-fuel hysteria.

Right, but only above the altitude where water vapor all condenses out. Not at the surface. Increased CO2 raises the effective emission altitude and commensurately reduces the effective emission temperature, but the resulting increased downward IR radiation never gets back down to the surface because it is blocked by water vapor in the lower troposphere. The effect of increased CO2 is therefore confined to higher altitudes where there is effectively no water vapor.

No we don't. There are too many empirically unsupported assumptions in analyses that pretend to demonstrate those relationships, especially the lack of allowance for the fact that water vapor in the lower troposphere completely blocks downward IR radiation from the higher altitudes where CO2 is the dominant greenhouse gas.

No, you are forgetting that changes in top-of-atmosphere conditions don't affect the surface because downward IR radiation just runs into water vapor in the lower troposphere.

On your part, that is.

 

He and others keep ignoring how very little the increasing CO2 level in the air adds additional warm forcing to the "heat budget", while ignoring the still missing big positive feedback evidence problem that was supposed to strongly drive up the warming trend fast, something never seen in only the last BILLION years.

 

Here's more evidence against the consensus.
Magnitude Of Recent Surface Solar Radiation Forcing Over US Is Tens Of Times Greater Than From CO2
By Kenneth Richard on 7. June 2021

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Over the US, the modest change in cloud cover from 1996-2019 predominantly drove the +11.77 W/m² surface solar radiation forcing during 1996-2012 (then -2.35 W/m² from 2013-2019). These “brightening” and “dimming” magnitudes easily overwhelm the values associated with an annual 2 to 2.5 ppm rise in CO2 forcing (0.2 W/m² per decade).
When cloud cover changes by even a percentage point or two from one decade to the next, the magnitude of the associated forcing can be compared directly to the impact of rising CO2 concentrations. And in a new study, Augustine and Hodges (2021) point out:

“Documented magnitudes of brightening are significant and much larger than the projected increase in downwelling longwave radiation (LW↓) expected for a doubling of CO2 since industrial times (~4 W/m²)”

Translated, the total projected forcing associated with a doubling of the CO2 concentration since 1750 (280 ppm to 560 ppm) is only 3.7 W/m² (Seinfeld, 2008). . . .

 

Weak solar output will probably put the brakes on warming.

Researchers Foresee Weak Solar Cycles Until 2050… “Unwelcome Meteorological And Climatic Consequences”!
By P Gosselin on 20. June 2021

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Analyzing the cyclic nature of solar activity, leading scientists suggest a solar minimum is set to persist until 2050.

It’s important to estimate the features of the next solar cycle because they serve to improve preparedness in space exploration and minimizing risks in technological and sociological activities.

The ability to understand historical solar magnetic parameters more accurately, beyond the highly dominant 11-year cycle, is a key to estimating solar variability, researchers say. Moreover, a number of scientists believe there is a clear link between solar activity and climatic patterns in terms of precipitation and temperature worldwide.

New study foresees weak solar activity until 2050

A new study appearing in the Journal Advancing in Space Research by Herrera et al forecasts that the upcoming solar cycle 25 (SC 25) will be a weak one with a peak annual sunspot number (SSN) of 95 and a probable range of 80–115 between 2023 and 2025. . . .

 

Apparently GHG attribution doesn't work in China.
Strong Link Between Solar Activity And Rapid Cooling (2-3°C/Century) In China During The Last 5000 Years
By Kenneth Richard on 5. July 2021

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China’s climate history includes multiple climate warming and cooling fluctuations of 4°C within centuries, with cold periods aligning with declines in solar irradiance.
According to a new study (Zhang et al., 2021), northern China’s coldest temperatures of the last 5000 years occurred 300 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), coinciding with the Little Ice Age and a decrease in solar irradiance. This frigid period was was followed by a ~4°C warm-up (from about 3.5°C to 7.5°C) within the span of about 150 years during the middle of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1912 CE), which was well before anthropogenic CO2 emissions began sharply rising.

The warmest temperatures of the last millennium occurred during the Medieval Warm Period (Song Dynasty, 960-1279 CE).

Rapid cooling periods of multiple degrees per century also coincided with the collapse of ancient civilizations, or dynasties, as wars and social unrest were often associated with competition for access to natural resources (such as water during droughts).



Image Source: Zhang et al., 2021