The Myth That Nuclear Weapons Can Kill Everyone On Earth-many times over

I have read some estimates. A Global Nuclear War with all existing arsenal used would kill about 1 Billion people. Civilization will survive, but it will be a tragedy worse then WWII.

 

Their lethality quickly diminishes with time and range from the blast. We learned this when America tested in Nevada above ground.

 

Probably in Russia -- USA Nuclear War the losses will be
Russia -- 50 Million
USA -- 150 Million
Rest of the World from fallout -- 200 Million

That is not annihilation, but a tragedy greater then WWII.

 

Missile silos are not deeply buried at all. They need an opening at the top to launch the missile.

The control centers are in a bunker deep underground.

The communication channels are deep underground and well-protected as well.

No. The same fission fragments are produced whether the warhead explodes in the air or on the ground.

 

The diminished lethality is relative. It is true that fallout a day after the blast will be much less lethal than fallout an hour after the blast. And fallout a week later will be much less lethal than that.

But after a large nuclear war it'll be some 500 years before everyone stops dying from cancer in their mid 40s.

 

The radioactive fallout from an airburst dissipates relatively quickly relative to a ground burst. The fallout from a ground burst sticks around longer due to the larger size of the fallout particles. The larger size particles also fall quicker. With smaller particles the radiation will often dissipate before the particles fall to the ground.

 

They aren’t buried that deep. No deeper than the base of a silo. A groundburst nearby will knock them out.

We aren’t talking about Cheyenne Mountain here.

In a ground burst the radiation is attached to millions of tons of particulate matter that is lifted into the upper atmosphere and then distributed around.

With an air burst, there is far less particulate matter created and spread.

You know what that particulate matter is called?

FALLOUT

 

Strontium-90 has a 28 year half life. Cesium-137 has a 30 year half life.

It would take awhile for that to dissipate.

 

Not very easily. The chances are probably great enough to justify targeting the control centers, but not great enough to stop targeting the missile silos.

The lack of particulate matter in an airburst just means the fallout comes down farther away, in a rainstorm. But it still comes down.

 

2000 missiles x 75,000 killed per blast = 150 million This is perhaps a bit high but this is just from the blast. The number of people that die for various reasons mentioned previously - would up that total significantly - more will likely die from other causes than from the blast.

Regardless of how many survive - It is annihilation. Infrastructure is gone, power grid is gone, buildings gone, water - gone, communications gone, oil and gas pipelines destroyed, refining capacity - destroyed, electronics - fried - including cars - livestock dead, crops contaminated or destroyed or poisoned, manufacturing capacity destroyed and so on.

Not sure what definition of annihilation we are using but, to me the above qualifies.

 

Right - but it is my understanding that the lethal stuff is far shorter lived. http://nikealaska.org/nuke/fallout.html

 

Taking longer means radioactive decay has happened and thus less radiation exists to bind to matter and thus less fallout.

It is a fact: groundburst generate more fallout than airburst do.

And again we aren’t talking about Cheyenne Mountain like bunkers with massive shock absorbers buried under a mountain to take the impact of a nuclear detonation. Launch control bunkers are concrete boxes a couple dozen meters underground.

The shock of a ground detonation above them will definitely take them offline.

 

Where are you getting this idea that every detonation will kill 75,000 people?

Is the attack counterforce or countervalue?

 

That wasn't my number - the poster had claimed that 150 million would be killed. 150 million/2000 = ave 75,000 per bomb. I said that I thought this was probably high, but that those killed in the blast would only be a fraction of the total killed in such an attack.

 

It’s actually pretty ridiculous except in the case of a country launching a mass countervalue attack and basically ignoring every military target.

 

The global nuclear arsenal is

That will cause about 500 million deaths -- a great tragedy but not an end of civilization.

An impact of 100 teratons would destroy civilization --

 

It is not that ridiculous. What is the point of targeting a nuclear missile silo when that missile will have already be launched and speeding towards Russia by the time the Russian missile gets there ?

Regardless - given that 450 nuclear blasts (using castle bravo data) are all that is required to blanket every square inch of the US with radioactive fallout .. in an attack consisting of 2000 nuclear missile strikes this is less than 25% - leaving 75% for military targets - many of which are in or near populated areas especially when you put fallout into the equation. The fallout from the castle bravo ground burst contaminated 7000 square miles. Fishermen in a fishing boat 90 miles away were hospitalized with severe radiation sickness and one died.

Now these fisherman - and the folks living in Hiroshima (roughly 120,000 dead) were able to get away from the radiation in a relatively short period of time - reducing exposure.

How is someone going to get away from radiation exposure after 2000 nuclear detonations ? Detonations - using 1 megaton as the average - that are 75 X that of Hiroshima. The whole country is blanketed with fallout.

All infrastructure is gone - water don't come out of the tap when you turn it on and should you find a working tap the water will be contaminated. How long can people survive without water ? not long.

Electrical grid is destroyed, oil and gas pipelines destroyed, electronics fried, no communication, and so on. The fallout and mass chaos that would ensue will kill more people than the blast itself.

 

Perhaps, some new civilizations will appear after a nuclear war. Civilizations ruled by criminal bosses and dictators.

Hopefully this apocalyptic scenario does not materialize.

 

I do not think we are going to nuclear war with Russia anytime soon. Well - as long as Trump does not get impeached and Pence becomes President

 

The whole idea of warfare is you have tangible goals you want to achieve. That thought process works on nuclear targeteers too.

They target enemy missile fields on the chance that they are minutes faster than the enemy and can take out at least some of the enemy missiles before they launch.

 

The fallout from a groundburst does come down sooner, so in the hours after a groundburst the local region does get high intensity radiation from particles that would probably not have come down yet if it had been an airburst.

But if the fallout from an airburst comes down in a rainstorm two days after the explosion, that two-day-old fallout will be just as intense as two-day-old fallout from a ground burst.

Not definitely enough to justify not targeting the silos as well.

 

It depends on what you mean by lethal. The radiation that is strong enough to directly kill you from damage to your cells, that dissipates soon enough.

The radiation that will cause everyone to die of cancer by age 40, not so much.

Strontium is chemically similar to calcium, and if you ingest any strontium-90, your body will deposit it directly in your bones, where it then will bombard your bone marrow with beta rays for the rest of your life.

Cesium-137 gives off penetrating gamma rays so will be a cancer hazard even if you don't ingest it. Each time you do ingest it, your body will believe it to be potassium and store it evenly throughout your body, making you a walking source of gamma rays for the next year or so.

 

What if you catch it before it is launched?

Soviet Cold War strategy involved having their SLBMs pop off airbursts over our ICBM fields to prevent us from launching our missiles until the warheads from their ICBMs could arrive to destroy our missiles on the ground.

 

It’s called the “X-Ray pin down effect”. Essentially you can’t launch because the x-rays generated by the nuclear detonation could screw up the electronics on your own missiles.

 

Sure sure ... and with 2000 missiles they could target missile sites and have plenty left over for cities and other military installations. It is annihilation any way you slice it or dice it.