The Real Skinny On The Week In Republican Politics

The race is on. The past week has seen something that is almost unprecedented in American politics. The race to succeed an incumbent president in his first term by members of his own party began in earnest. Republicans cannot be accused of not reacting when they smell blood in the water. They read newspapers, follow the polls that come out almost daily, look at the electoral landscape and the result of elections, listen to {even if it doesn't lead to corresponding votes} to what their constituents are saying, and understand that their agenda {and that of their donors} often doesn't line up well with their voters. The next presidential election isn't until 2020, but candidates have to position themselves if they are going to have a chance to defeat President Trump in the primaries.

This was a week that brought a remarkable confluence of events together that moved the dial for a number of potential candidates. A number of these are incontrovertible:

1. This president is at an all-time low in Presidential polling after one year of a presidency. The Real Clear Politics average shows a 37.3% approval rating and the most recent Monmouth College poll shows the President with a 32% approval rating. Both are all time lows for a president in his first year of office. No president with an approval rating below 46% has been able to prevent a wave election for the opposing party in the midterm elections. Pairing that with the generic 52-37% national preference for a Democratic Congress next year {also the highest differential in history}, most Republicans are now fully expecting a wave election in 2018.
2. Even though the Republican candidate in Alabama was a historically poor nominee who would have lost any election in probably 45 of 50 states, the reality that this candidate lost in Alabama was truly stunning to the Republican party. Two things in particular were massively troubling. First, the Democratic candidate, Doug Jones, was able to put together a credible coalition of minorities, white women, college graduates, and suburbanites that might be able to be replicated in future elections with moderate Democratic candidates. The second, and more troubling outcome for Republicans was that it demonstrated how little pull the President and Steve Bannon had with voters. The President going "all in" for Judge Moore may have had a negative effect on voters. Mr. Bannon kept intact his streak of continuing to back losing candidates. He has shown himself only to be a thorn in the side of the Republican party whose influence extends only to the primaries and the most radical right members of the party.
3. The Mueller investigation, contrary to the trash that is coming out of the State Supported Media that is Sean Hannity and his friends at Fox, is getting closer and closer to President Trump, It appears that it is only a matter of time until the President himself will have to appear, and there is growing concern in Washington that the result of the investigation will not be positive for the President. Washington insiders know that the accusations against Mueller and his team are absurd and that the investigation, when completed will be an honest and fair result. That does not bode well for the President or thoses in his inner circle.
4. The Republicans then determined that they must move full speed ahead with their ill advised tax plan even though it has a national approval rating of 28$, lower than any tax INCREASE in history, and significantly lower than "Obama-Care". They made this determination in order to appease their donors and, at least get sufficient funds to run credible campaigns in 2018. It is almost as if they are conceding the mid-term elections to the Democrats
5. The "Me Too" movement has caught up with Congress and by association with President Trump. There have been a flurry of both Democratic and Republican resignations from Congress in the past few weeks. The President then endorsed a man who had credible allegations of both sexual harassment and sexual abuse toward teenagers {including at least one 14 year old). This was a terrible strategic mistake for a man who has had credible accusations of sexual harassment and abuse levied against him by at least 15 to 20 different women and who is on tape boasting about it. All of this has led to the Democratic opposition and many voters demanding that Congress hold the President accountable and open an investigation into the allegations.

What does all of this have to do with the Presidential race in 2020? Let's look at the three potential candidates that made overt moves to help set themselves up as credible challengers to President Trump.

1. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee: Senator Corker has been setting up his bona fides as a thorn in the side of President Trump since the beginning of his administration. He announced his retirement earlier this year, but there has been some speculation that he had his sights set on higher office. When he first came out against the Republican tax plan, the scuttlebutt was that perhaps Senator Corker was truly going to show a conscience moving into retirement. His reason was that he would not vote for any tax plan that would add one penny to the deficit, let alone one point three trillion dollars. Amazingly, Senator Corker miraculously changed to a yes vote this week. Why? The reason is obvious. No Republican in good standing could ever run for higher office after voting against a tax cut. If there is one absolute mantra of Republicanism throughout the decades, it is that they support every tax cut regardless of what it does to the deficit. There could be no clearer indication that Senator Corker plans to challenge President Trump than this wild flip flop on this issue.
2. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida: Everyone in the country knows that Marco Rubio has presidential ambitions. What Marco Rubio did not have was a platform issue. That issue became children this week. The senator who has done nothing about CHIP or any other child welfare legislation, took a stand. The children's tax credit was unfair to parents with children. the $1000 that was refundable was not enough given the millions that the rich were going to receive as a result of this bill. That sounded great. Rubio got an extra $400 dollars $7.84 a week added to the bill. The rich still get millions, but the poor get a little under eight bucks a week more. But it does set Mr. Rubio up with a credible mantra for 2020. He was the Republican who fought for children. A great campaign strategy against the heartless President Trump.
3. Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin: The leak that Ryan would leave Congress next year did not sell as a false flag. Ryan sees the writing on the wall. He does not want to be either minority leader or a former majority leader. He would rather leave on his own terms and begin his fundraising and active campaigning against President Trump quickly. He would also be out of Congress when the pay for cuts come due for the poorly crafted tax bill. He could campaign as a voice of reason and moderation. He would be out of Congress when the Democratic party is in charge and would be able to attack Democrats and Republicans as an outsider.

Corker and Ryan could also take positions as Republican voices of reason on the Mueller investigation, supporting that investigation as outsiders, while Rubio might have more difficulty making his case from within, although that may not be impossible.

All of this comes at the same time that the Republican Congress engaged in the most sanctimonious lovefest with their president while running a victory lap for their tax scam program. This is the same Congress that has been at war with Mr. Trump for the past 12 months. The "faux" peace is certainly temporary and will almost certainly fall apart in January when Congress reconvenes and has to face some extremely difficult issues which will invariably will place them at odds with their "wonderful and marvelous leader".

These aren't the only candidates who will emerge to challenge President Trump. As his position continues to erode, with both the American people and subsequently with Congress, more and more Republicans will get into the fray. The more blood in the water, the more sharks will show up for the feeding frenzy. If the President has many more weeks like this, the list of candidates may be longer than the list that signed the Declaration of Independence.